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Lori Calvasina
RBC Capital Markets (head of US equity strategy)
First call on the ledger
1 still on the clock. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything
else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
On the clock
Written down and dated. Not judged until the deadline arrives.
Said Jul 6, 2026 · resolves Jul 6, 2027
“We upped our target a little bit to 81.50 [8,150]. Healthy, not heroic.” Explicitly a 12-month-forward S&P 500 target, recast from a Dec-31 basis; “on the high end, some of our models are signaling more than 8300.”
S&P 500 since the call: ▲ +2.7% · 7,537 → 7,742 · as of 2026-08-05
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
sentiment model points to a 10.8 percent 12-month gain with at least one 5-10 percent drawdown en route
“our base case has been we're going to be higher over the next 12 months, but it's not going to be in a linear fashion”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +3.4% · 7,490 → 7,742 · as of 2026-08-05
absent a real recession chance you bottom near 10, growth scares run 15-20, recession-type 25-33 avoided
“Kind of 20 percent might be the worst.”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +3.4% · 7,490 → 7,742 · as of 2026-08-05
CFTC positioning easing off one standard deviation above average
“there's some nervousness creeping into the institutional community, but I don't think there's panic there either”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +3.4% · 7,490 → 7,742 · as of 2026-08-05
retail dip-buying has changed where markets trough
“they make higher and higher lows. And I think that's because of these dip buyers coming in”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +3.4% · 7,490 → 7,742 · as of 2026-08-05
despite some firms declining sports prediction markets this season
“this trend of getting typical Americans engaged in the stock market, I don't think that's changing.”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +3.4% · 7,490 → 7,742 · as of 2026-08-05
the rotation story moved to the back burner. tactical, not an exit call; her 12-month S&P target ~8,150 stands in the same tape
“It feels like we're starting to see more evidence of a reason to derisk”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +4.4% · 7,413 → 7,742 · as of 2026-08-05
the market's Iran assumption breaking. 'we' = the market's pricing, not an RBC position
“We've been pricing in de-escalation since March 30th. It's getting harder and harder”
what hike risk does to the macro community. STANCE corrected bear->neutral: color about analyst psychology
“it's like you're squeezing their head in a vice”
Replayed clip from her interview the previous day (7/14): tech overall has 'improved basically back to neutral just given some of the carnage' (@63:37) and communication services has 'frankly... better valuations' (@63:33).
“and semi valuations which had gotten pretty expensive. They're not super cheap yet. They may still have more to go. I want to be clear about that.”
Defending her 8,150 target; NOTE: a ROLLING 12-MONTH target off the Jun 25 2026 close (+10.8%), not year-end; whisper renders 8,150 as $81.50
“the $81.50 target doesn't seem that heroic, but you'd be amazed on the amount of pushback that we get”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +3.0% · 7,515 → 7,742 · as of 2026-08-05
Same-day rating action: tech to overweight, comm services to market weight
“comm services is a sector that has a lot of tech in it and so we had preferred that area and we're switching it up today.”
A caution INSIDE her bullish tech upgrade, not a bearish tech call (meaning-verified)
“we've had some concerns about the semis. And what I found in my recent marketing is that, you know, the valuations have come down. I don't think that problem has been fully resolved. A lot of the hedge funds, it's come down enough for them.”
MEANING GUARD: these are deliberately conservative stress-test inputs inside her bullish target, NOT an RBC Fed forecast
“So it's about 3% inflation we're baking in, one Fed hike, and then also looking at 10-year yields around 4.5%.”
Cut her inflation input on Iran de-escalation; cites RBC economists ~2.6% for 1Q27
“I pulled it down a little bit just when we got some of this de-escalation on the Iran war, we wanted to reflect sort of that improvement in the gas price backdrop. But I think our economists are maybe at 2.6% for 1Q.”
Flagged as the market's next de-rating candidate on 30-year-extreme valuations; explicitly NOT downgraded (fundamentals 'fabulous')
“The problem with industrials is they are ridiculously overvalued.”
Her framing of what a real bear case requires; she does not expect the AI earnings crack
“if you really want to get bearish on the market, you have to get bearish on earnings. It's not just enough to be worried about valuation pressures. And you have to attack that AI earnings story.”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +3.0% · 7,515 → 7,742 · as of 2026-08-05
“We upped our target a little bit to 81.50 [8,150]. Healthy, not heroic” (12-month-forward target); “on the high end, some of our models are signaling more than 8300 [8,300]”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +2.7% · 7,537 → 7,742 · as of 2026-08-05
…starting to percolate there, and interest from clients starting to percolate as well. At some point, we'll deal with 2027 earnings growth expectations. We're not there yet. We're still sorting through 2026, but that's something to keep on your radar as well. And it feels like interest rate fears have eased back a little bit, but that's something also to keep on our radar. I know there's just a whole range of outcomes predicted around the street right now, some people looking for cuts, some people looking for hikes. But we do keep that hike risk on the radar. But Tom, with the price target, we try to be longer term. We've recast it this year from a December 31st number to a 12-month forward number. We update it once a month. We did a little bit later last month, and we probably should have. But we had a number of events to get through. And so we upped our target a little bit to 81.50. Healthy, not heroic. We still think that the earnings strength, the earnings tailwind, is offsetting pressures on the PE from the trickier rates and inflation environment. So no real change. What is the AI theme in your work these days? I guess we all started our own AI investing by just buying the chips, which is still a way to go, no doubt. But is there other ways to play AI that you and your team are thinking about? So I think it started out as sort of a Mag 7 type story. And then we saw in the earnings data that the AI trade was really sort of broadening out this year. And then the semis were front and center. And we were kind of at peak revisions there on earnings. You've had expensive valuation.…From: this video · 1 claim mined from it
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