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Lori Calvasina

RBC Capital Markets
First call on the ledger

1 still on the clock. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.

Since they said it

7 directional calls with a price to read (4 bullish, 3 bearish). 1 week later, with the call in 4 of 7; 1 month later, with the call in 4 of 7. Prices as of 2026-09-10. Three fixed windows, the same for every call, always shown together: one week, one month, three months after the first close that followed the tape. What the market did, not a score: a call can have a different horizon, and a view with no number or deadline is never graded here.

S&P 500 from 2026-06-08 to 2026-09-10 · ▲ bullish · ▼ bearish · dot = the close that day
7,7997,267
DateMarketCallWhat was said1 week1 month3 months
2026-07-31
from 7,600
S&P 500Bullish“our base case has been we're going to be higher over the next 12 months, but it's not going to be in a linear fashion”+2.0%
with the call
+0.4%
with the call
not yet
2026-07-27
from 7,429
S&P 500Bearish (Leaning)“It feels like we're starting to see more evidence of a reason to derisk”+4.1%
against the call
+3.3%
against the call
not yet
2026-07-15
from 25,882
NasdaqBearish (Leaning)“and semi valuations which had gotten pretty expensive. They're not super cheap yet. They may still have more to go. I want to be clear about that.”-2.9%
with the call
+3.3%
against the call
not yet
2026-07-13
from 7,544
S&P 500Bullish“the $81.50 target doesn't seem that heroic, but you'd be amazed on the amount of pushback that we get”-0.5%
against the call
+2.7%
with the call
not yet
2026-07-13
from 26,107
NasdaqBullish“comm services is a sector that has a lot of tech in it and so we had preferred that area and we're switching it up today.”-1.0%
against the call
+1.8%
with the call
not yet
2026-07-13
from 26,107
NasdaqBearish (Hedged)“we've had some concerns about the semis. And what I found in my recent marketing is that, you know, the valuations have come down. I don't think that problem has been fully resolved. A lot of the hedge funds, it's come down enough for them.”-1.0%
with the call
+1.8%
against the call
not yet
2026-07-06
from 7,504
S&P 500Bullish“We upped our target a little bit to 81.50 [8,150]. Healthy, not heroic” (12-month-forward target); “on the high end, some of our models are signaling more than 8300 [8,300]”+0.5%
with the call
+2.9%
with the call
not yet

On the clock

Written down and dated. Not judged until the deadline arrives.

Said Jul 6, 2026 · resolves Jul 6, 2027
“We upped our target a little bit to 81.50 [8,150]. Healthy, not heroic.” Explicitly a 12-month-forward S&P 500 target, recast from a Dec-31 basis; “on the high end, some of our models are signaling more than 8300.”
S&P 500 since the call: ▲ +0.7% · 7,537 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10

Where they stand

Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.

BullishThe S&P 500 2026-07-31
sentiment model points to a 10.8 percent 12-month gain with at least one 5-10 percent drawdown en route
“our base case has been we're going to be higher over the next 12 months, but it's not going to be in a linear fashion”
Lori Calvasina · RBC Capital Markets · Bloomberg ↗
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +1.4% · 7,490 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishThe S&P 500 leaning · 2026-07-31
absent a real recession chance you bottom near 10, growth scares run 15-20, recession-type 25-33 avoided
“Kind of 20 percent might be the worst.”
Lori Calvasina · RBC Capital Markets · Bloomberg ↗
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +1.4% · 7,490 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
NeutralThe S&P 500 leaning · 2026-07-31
CFTC positioning easing off one standard deviation above average
“there's some nervousness creeping into the institutional community, but I don't think there's panic there either”
Lori Calvasina · RBC Capital Markets · Bloomberg ↗
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +1.4% · 7,490 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishThe S&P 500 leaning · 2026-07-31
retail dip-buying has changed where markets trough
“they make higher and higher lows. And I think that's because of these dip buyers coming in”
Lori Calvasina · RBC Capital Markets · Bloomberg ↗
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +1.4% · 7,490 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishThe S&P 500 2026-07-31
despite some firms declining sports prediction markets this season
“this trend of getting typical Americans engaged in the stock market, I don't think that's changing.”
Lori Calvasina · RBC Capital Markets · Bloomberg ↗
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +1.4% · 7,490 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
BearishThe S&P 500 leaning · 2026-07-27
the rotation story moved to the back burner. tactical, not an exit call; her 12-month S&P target ~8,150 stands in the same tape
“It feels like we're starting to see more evidence of a reason to derisk”
Lori Calvasina · RBC Capital Markets · CNBC ↗
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +2.4% · 7,413 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
BearishOil War 2026-07-27
the market's Iran assumption breaking. 'we' = the market's pricing, not an RBC position
“We've been pricing in de-escalation since March 30th. It's getting harder and harder”
Lori Calvasina · RBC Capital Markets · CNBC ↗
NeutralFed 2026-07-27
what hike risk does to the macro community. STANCE corrected bear->neutral: color about analyst psychology
“it's like you're squeezing their head in a vice”
Lori Calvasina · RBC Capital Markets · CNBC ↗
BearishAI Winners & Chips leaning · 2026-07-15
Replayed clip from her interview the previous day (7/14): tech overall has 'improved basically back to neutral just given some of the carnage' (@63:37) and communication services has 'frankly... better valuations' (@63:33).
“and semi valuations which had gotten pretty expensive. They're not super cheap yet. They may still have more to go. I want to be clear about that.”
Lori Calvasina · RBC Capital Markets · Bloomberg ↗
Nasdaq since this was said: ▼ -0.7% · 26,269 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishThe S&P 500 2026-07-13
Defending her 8,150 target; NOTE: a ROLLING 12-MONTH target off the Jun 25 2026 close (+10.8%), not year-end; whisper renders 8,150 as $81.50
“the $81.50 target doesn't seem that heroic, but you'd be amazed on the amount of pushback that we get”
Lori Calvasina · RBC Capital Markets · CNBC ↗
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +1.0% · 7,515 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishAI Winners & Chips 2026-07-13
Same-day rating action: tech to overweight, comm services to market weight
“comm services is a sector that has a lot of tech in it and so we had preferred that area and we're switching it up today.”
Lori Calvasina · RBC Capital Markets · CNBC ↗
Nasdaq since this was said: ▲ +0.8% · 25,873 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
BearishAI Winners & Chips hedged · 2026-07-13
A caution INSIDE her bullish tech upgrade, not a bearish tech call (meaning-verified)
“we've had some concerns about the semis. And what I found in my recent marketing is that, you know, the valuations have come down. I don't think that problem has been fully resolved. A lot of the hedge funds, it's come down enough for them.”
Lori Calvasina · RBC Capital Markets · CNBC ↗
Nasdaq since this was said: ▲ +0.8% · 25,873 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
NeutralThe Fed 2026-07-13
MEANING GUARD: these are deliberately conservative stress-test inputs inside her bullish target, NOT an RBC Fed forecast
“So it's about 3% inflation we're baking in, one Fed hike, and then also looking at 10-year yields around 4.5%.”
Lori Calvasina · RBC Capital Markets · CNBC ↗
NeutralInflation hedged · 2026-07-13
Cut her inflation input on Iran de-escalation; cites RBC economists ~2.6% for 1Q27
“I pulled it down a little bit just when we got some of this de-escalation on the Iran war, we wanted to reflect sort of that improvement in the gas price backdrop. But I think our economists are maybe at 2.6% for 1Q.”
Lori Calvasina · RBC Capital Markets · CNBC ↗
BearishStock Picks leaning · 2026-07-13
Flagged as the market's next de-rating candidate on 30-year-extreme valuations; explicitly NOT downgraded (fundamentals 'fabulous')
“The problem with industrials is they are ridiculously overvalued.”
Lori Calvasina · RBC Capital Markets · CNBC ↗
BullishThe S&P 500 2026-07-13
Her framing of what a real bear case requires; she does not expect the AI earnings crack
“if you really want to get bearish on the market, you have to get bearish on earnings. It's not just enough to be worried about valuation pressures. And you have to attack that AI earnings story.”
Lori Calvasina · RBC Capital Markets · CNBC ↗
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +1.0% · 7,515 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishThe S&P 500 2026-07-06
“We upped our target a little bit to 81.50 [8,150]. Healthy, not heroic” (12-month-forward target); “on the high end, some of our models are signaling more than 8300 [8,300]”
Lori Calvasina · RBC Capital Markets · Bloomberg TV ↗
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +0.7% · 7,537 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10

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