The U.S. Economy

Deepak Mehra says the US economy is weaker than it looks: growth has slowed to 1.5% and even that is mostly AI infrastructure spending.

Jack Caffrey tells the anchor the US consumer only gets into much better shape once energy prices normalise, which acts like a weekly tax cut at the pump.

Ed Dufner tells the anchor Trump's $5,000 'Trump dividend' is unlikely to come to pass: no funding source, no legislative framework and Republican pushback in Congress.

Donald Trump pledges a $5,000 'Trump dividend' to every adult US citizen if Republicans keep both the House and Senate in November 2026.

Michael Reid tells the anchor inflation-indexed entitlement spending adds to the deficit and that realisation is what pressures the long end of the Treasury curve.

Charlie Scharf says consumer credit is very healthy with delinquencies improving, though that will not continue forever.

Brian Moynihan says consumers are borrowing and credit quality is good.

McGlone tells Lin he is very worried about touching the stock market and that 5% Treasuries are the place to be.

McGlone tells Lin long bonds (TLT) are essentially a positive-carry put on the S&P 500 waiting for a stock-market trigger.

Tom Lee says the US economy looks really good, citing well-behaved high-yield spreads over the yield curve as a recession signal.

Sunny Bangia (Bloomberg equity strategist) sizes Bessent's Treasury buyback room at just under $400B (TGA ~$900B drawn to $500B), i.e. a $10-15B program that can move yields short term but not fix why they rise

Lee says Treasury buybacks may squeeze shorts short term but will not lastingly lower yields because deficits, not mechanics, set the long end

Louis-Vincent Gave (Gavekal) says the US budget deficit will be 7% of GDP this year at full employment, with France near 6%

Gave says easy fiscal, easy money, protectionism and wars are each bearish bonds, so it is hard to get excited about bonds until one changes

Cranfield would not be surprised if US Treasury yields are a bit higher within a week given deficits, auctions and buyback-disappointment risk

Rhee says fiscal expansion plus leveraged AI investment drives rising yields and higher bond yields will persist unless governments rein in spending

John Burn-Murdoch (FT) offers the hedged view that falling education scores may matter less for GDP than feared because top performers drive the economy

Ed Elson (Prof G Markets host, own monologue) says long-term Treasury yields are high because investors do not believe the US takes fiscal responsibility seriously

Elson says America's debt problem ($40T debt, $1.25T interest) is at a tipping point and will probably never be taken seriously

Heath expects US long-end yields to keep rising because leveraged hedge funds have replaced central banks as the marginal Treasury buyer

Heath senses the world is moving into a contraction-type environment, while distrusting official statistics

David McIntosh tells Fox Business that Republicans will win the November 2026 midterms and keep the House, rejecting forecasts that they lose it.

Eisenschmidt says an ECB hike to 2.50% at next week's meeting is out of question and fully priced.

Eisenschmidt says Morgan Stanley thinks the September ECB hike is the last (market prices two more), predicated on growth softening and energy prices stopping their rise.

Hambro says yields are rising because investors demand a higher return for lending to over-indebted, inefficient governments, with implications across assets.

Ven Ram expects the UK's record-cost gilt sale to be well digested given only a mild concession.

Ven Ram says the gilt selloff is part of a global rise in long-end yields because the equilibrium rate has risen with heavy debt supply, not a UK-specific aversion.

Peter Schiff suggests the August jobs beat reported on Friday may be revised down to a miss by December, undercutting the case for hikes.

Peter Schiff says that even with unchanged rates US interest on the national debt will exceed $2 trillion a year by the time Trump leaves office.

Peter Schiff says the national debt will go from $40 trillion to $50 trillion much faster than it went from $30 to $40 trillion, pressuring the dollar and lifting gold.

Peter Schiff tells investors to stay out of cash and out of US bonds because inflation destroys fixed income; own gold, silver and foreign stocks instead.

Steve Moore tells Fox Business the August jobs report was a blockbuster with almost nothing bad in it.

Bensignor says the US 10-year yield could go to 5.6% or as high as 10%; he does not expect 10% but calls 5.6% a minimum upside target.

Bensignor reaffirms his March call that the 10-year will not see 4% again this cycle and rates go higher, with an ultimate target in the 6-7% area.

Bullard says 20-30 aggregated labor indicators show the US labor market in equilibrium near the natural rate; a soft payroll print reflects immigration policy, not something breaking.

Bullard says the long end is pricing a US debt path to 120-150% of GDP and investors are starting to demand a fiscal risk premium (higher long yields).

Bullard says Treasury stepping into the long end is a tactical move that can cause daily fluctuation but will not change the long-run trend, which prices fundamental policy.

Wendy Edelberg (Brookings) is puzzled by 71k average payroll growth, seven times last year's pace, with nothing else in the labor market corroborating it.

Paffrath says the 10-year yield is almost back up to 4.7% after Warsh's speech, which is not ideal.

Rule tells Lin the US government has moved from short-end intervention to intervening in the long end of the Treasury market.

Rule tells Lin that without intervention, and assuming 8% underlying inflation, a free market would price the 30-year Treasury near 9.5%.

Rule tells Lin the US economy's low cost of capital rests on artificially low rates and savers subsidizing spenders, which he calls fraud.

Rule tells Lin the economy is substantially stronger than he expected despite war, high rates and trade wars, and he cannot see how it is a bad economy that needs lower interest rates.

Todd Horwitz tells David Lin he would not be surprised to see the 10-year yield above 5% within six weeks because the Treasury buyback intervention will fail.

Todd Horwitz would sell 10-yr note futures at 109 and 30-yr futures at 110, expecting rates higher and bond prices lower.

Todd Horwitz asserts hidden consumer-credit stress (18% of card holders 90 days past due, 8% auto and 7% mortgage defaults) as the reason the Treasury intervention will fail.

Todd Horwitz thinks the US economy is in horrible shape.

Todd Horwitz expects food to get more expensive and sees grains as cheap versus production cost with positive momentum building.

Todd Horwitz says cattle, down about 20% from highs, has a lot more downside.

Todd Horwitz says interest rates have no chance of falling further unless a financial calamity forces the Fed back into a 2008-style program.

Stephanie Link (Hightower) tells Andrew Ross Sorkin the Atlanta Fed's 5.8% is too high but US growth is accelerating from last quarter on AI capex and a consumer that keeps spending.

Stephanie Link (Hightower) tells CNBC ISM services has expanded for 20 straight months, one of several data points showing the economy is healthy.

Corey Brooks (Chicago pastor, Project H.O.O.D.) predicts New York's government-run grocery stores will fail like Chicago's $13.5m taxpayer-backed plan did.

Jeff Booth (EgoDeath Capital) tells Scott Melker that global debt is mathematically unpayable and the credit-based system will keep degrading and debasing currency.

Tim Waterer (KCM Trade) reads unchanged 10-year yields despite soft CPI, PPI and jobs as the bond market being more worried about the long-term US economy than the Fed is.

Steve Liesman tells CNBC viewers not to read much into the July retail sales miss: consumers are coping with high gasoline prices and alternative data showed decent sales.

Julian Emanuel of Evercore tells Bloomberg his main worry for stocks is the 10-year yield pushing through 4.75% toward 5% as the 30-year makes cycle highs.

Rick Santelli of CNBC reports the August prelim Michigan sentiment headline at 51 versus 55 expected, the weakest since June's 49.5, calling them weak numbers.

Steve Liesman of CNBC says the July retail sales miss is one number not a signal, since alternative data show consumers coping with higher gasoline prices.

Steve Liesman (CNBC) says not to read much into the weak July retail sales print; alternative data show consumers finding their way through higher gasoline prices.

Leon Cooperman tells CNBC he is very negative on the bond market because of the fiscal deficit and bipartisan neglect of the debt.

Eric Rosengren tells Bloomberg that H1 consumption grew only 1.5%, far weaker than investment, so AI/tech capex rather than the consumer is driving the economy.

Eric Rosengren tells Bloomberg the economy is growing at roughly the appropriate rate, maybe a little weaker than desired, because the consumer is lethargic.

Naveen Jaggi of JLL tells Bloomberg that value retailers like Walmart and Costco are winning while aspirational retailers will feel pain in back-to-school and again in the holidays.

Katherine Black of Kearney tells Bloomberg the weak retail sales print is a cumulative effect not a cliff, with lower-income consumers trading down more sharply than before.

Katherine Black of Kearney tells Bloomberg that over 90% of consumers in Kearney's survey say they are changing their shopping behavior.

Katherine Black of Kearney tells Bloomberg value retailers are gaining high-income shoppers, with almost 30% of high-income consumers switching stores.

Katherine Black of Kearney tells Bloomberg that younger consumers propping up spending via buy-now-pay-later could pull back if defaults rise or credit-reporting rules bite.

Yung-Yu Ma (PNC) tells CNBC he is not concerned about retail sales or the consumer holding the rally back; the real risk to the rally is long-term interest rates rising further.

Jason Calacanis predicts to Sacks that New Jersey's AG and NYC Mayor Mamdani will win their lawsuits against Amazon's delivery-subcontractor model.

David Sacks tells Calacanis forcing Amazon to employ DSP drivers would raise costs about $5.20 per package and $664 per household per year and put ~5,000 jobs at risk.

Siegel tells CNBC AI-driven productivity should pick up in Q3 and Q4 2026 after lagging in H1.

Patrick McHenry (Bloomberg politics contributor, ex-House Financial Services chair) says the record 30-year auction yield shows the bond market is again speaking loudly to Washington about overspending, with the Warsh Fed stepping back and letting markets speak.

Patrick McHenry says the US is on course for its largest non-wartime structural deficit as a share of GDP and in total, and the bond selloff is a heart-attack-style wake-up call.

Patrick McHenry thinks capital-gains indexing and a home-sale tax exemption are popular, would be a psychological positive for markets, and could pass relatively easily before the midterms.

Patrick McHenry says the federal government now pays more in interest than on national security, so small tax tweaks are marginal next to overspending.

Rahm Emanuel tells the All-In hosts that nearly two-thirds, he thinks 63%, of Americans now live paycheck to paycheck because incomes have stagnated.

David Friedberg tells Rahm Emanuel the US fiscal position is untenable: $7T spend vs $5T revenue, $40T debt at 5% implying ~$2T a year of interest.

Mark Zandi says falling real disposable income and a near-record-low saving rate cannot be sustained, so US consumer spending will slow.

Mark Zandi, disputing Bessent's claim that the K-shaped economy is over, says the top 20% of earners account for 60% of spending and the K is in full force.

Mark Zandi says the US job market is struggling: net job growth outside healthcare is zero and falling participation masks weakness.

Mark Zandi says that if labor-force participation had not fallen over the past year the unemployment rate would be over 5%.

Mark Zandi grades the US economy a C minus: 2% growth, not enough to create jobs or make people feel comfortable.

Mark Zandi says the US is not in and not close to a recession, but the economy is in an uncomfortable, fragile place.

Jan Hatzius (Goldman Sachs) tells Fox Business that the roughly 70,000 one-month drop in Goldman's estimate of underlying US job creation is a pretty sharp slowdown.

Jan Hatzius (Goldman Sachs) tells Fox Business the US economy is doing pretty well, with GDP growing 2% to maybe 2.5%, his expectation for the next year or two.

Larry Kudlow (Fox Business) says the election-year US economy is booming in manufacturing, construction and durable goods.

Larry Kudlow (Fox Business) tells Kevin Hassett the US is still running ~$2 trillion annual deficits despite the boom and he cannot understand why.

Kevin Hassett (National Economic Council) tells Larry Kudlow the administration has cut about 300,000 federal jobs, savings the CBO does not credit.

Kevin Hassett (National Economic Council) tells Larry Kudlow the manufacturing boom (85,000 construction workers building factories) will produce growth and a dynamic revenue surplus.

Dibo tells Lacqua the US labor market is far from booming (about 20k jobs/month, 2.3% annualized wages), so wages are not an inflation source.

Dibo tells Lacqua the US labor market is in a no-hire, no-fire equilibrium with falling participation.

Ven Ram (Bloomberg MLIV) tells Lacqua a soft CPI could spark a tactical rally in Treasuries from record-short positioning, but yields resume rising because neither the Fed nor Treasury is addressing inflation or deficits.

Larry Kudlow tells Fox Business the Senate will not pass the capital-gains indexing / home-sale exemption change even though it should.

Kudlow tells Fox Business a September budget bill carrying the capital-gains change is possible but he would not hold his breath.

Aditya Bhave (BofA Securities) tells CNBC the jobs number was not a disaster: with breakeven job growth near zero, a ~50k/month full-year average is fine and unemployment is falling.

Thomas Hayes (Great Hill Capital) tells David Lin not to bet against the US consumer: unemployment is ~4%, confidence is turning up off multi-decade lows, and spending holds as long as oil stays roughly $70-90.

Thomas Hayes (Great Hill Capital) tells David Lin that back-to-school retail sales will come in stronger than expectations because the bar for the consumer is so low.

Anita Krishna Gupta of Wealthbrix tells Bloomberg the ~5.3% 30-year yield will feed through mortgage and borrowing rates and definitely hurt the US consumer.

Sunil Kumar of Spinneys tells Bloomberg that sea freight from Europe/UK to the Gulf jumped from ~$3,000 to ~$17,000 a container in April because of the war.

David Sacks tells Fox Business that AI capex plus Trump tax and energy policy is producing an economic boom.

Ven Ram (Bloomberg) tells anchor Bonnie Quinn the Treasury selloff is deeply concerning: bond vigilantes are punishing fiscal profligacy and the inflation overshoot, keeping yields under upward pressure.

Laura Cooper tells Bonnie Quinn growth is still resilient, but a real-yield-driven test of 5% on the 10-year would be quite concerning.

Joe Lavorgna says the economy is booming, with Q3 GDP growth possibly upwards of 6%, so last year's insurance cuts are no longer needed.

Ed Yardeni tells Maggie Lake the US economy will remain resilient through the end of the decade.

Yardeni tells Lake the economy is bulletproof because wealthy boomer consumers are bulletproof, plus the AI capex boom.

Yardeni tells Lake the economy is doing very well on consumer, capex and deficit spending, though some growth is borrowed from the future.

Jeremy Siegel thinks the Atlanta Fed's over-5% Q3 GDP tracking is too optimistic and that 3-3.5% would still be enough to lift productivity and real wages.

Jeremy Siegel expects Q3 productivity growth to rebound after three quarters below the 15-year average.

Mark Zandi of Moody's tells CNBC underlying US GDP growth is 2%, the same as last year and the first half of this year.

Jim Caron tells Bloomberg 60/40 is not his favored allocation because the passive fixed-income 40 has returned about zero for five years and no longer hedges equities; he favors active, tactical bonds.

Thierry Wizman (Macquarie) tells the Bloomberg anchor unemployment fell to 4.1%, below the Fed's own 4.3% projection, so the labor market is tighter than the Fed expected.

ARK ITK; productivity growth approaching 3%.

Prof G Markets w/ Ed Elson; his case for why the market keeps hitting records: July bank credit data benign.

Las Vegas campaign speech soundbite; Nevada job creation and food-stamp decline.

Dismisses weak Q2 GDP as SPR technical adjustment; core strong.

falsifiable: the inventory drawdown reverses next quarter

no-recession call citing the resilient consumer

contrarian vs the everything-is-rigged mood

his K-shaped frame: 60 percent own homes and stocks, 40 percent rent and mostly don't

asked if the soft GDP print worries him; garble of cause for concern

The town eliminated all public debt without raising taxes while expanding services and cutting business fees 25 percent @1:20. 'Mandami' is a whisper garble of NYC Mayor Mamdani, invoked by the host @1:49. Adds 'The more the government keeps its nose out of the business of the individual, the better they will be' @2:30. Host's own 'socialist mayors' framing not filed (host-speaking, but it is the mayor taking the position here).

His 'uncertainty scorecard' @1:18: the open-ended US-Iran war ('That's the thing about war. You don't know exactly when it's going to end' @1:12), new Canada tariffs that 'probably violate our current trade agreements' @1:31 so 'you can't depend on the trade agreements', and no real plan on tech regulation. Aired with oil around $85 and gas at a $4.02 national average.

Clip runs with GM's better-than-expected results; average transaction price $52,000, 'Pricing has been relatively flat' @2:23, 42% truck share with volumes 'up a little bit. We expect them to be flat for the year' @2:42 due to a model changeover that should give 'even more momentum into 2027' @2:55.

He says 'the Democrats clearly have a strategy to shut down the government again' @4:08 when funding runs out September 30, strongly supports the House CR to December 4 @4:29, and argues the December 4 timeline four weeks past the election 'provides a lot of room for more reasonable negotiation' @6:19. He also expects Russia sanctions and reconciliation 3.0 can get done before the recess.

Replayed clip from the previous day's Mornings with Maria interview: software-defined ships 'built cheaper and at higher rates' @6:24 and new shipyards 'more efficient than the shipyards that the Chinese have' @6:15; 'We don't need to go and build 1200 foot cargo containers. We certainly can and we will be able to at Port Alpha' @6:28. Filed from this tape because the original Jul 20 interview tape is not in this assignment; note the duplicate airing.

With $4 gas back and refunds spent, Gunther says even higher earners are getting discerning, citing months of dollar-store growth driven mostly by high-income consumers looking to save.

Referring to the One Big Beautiful Bill's fiscal boost (a nearby segment garbles as 'it's having a really bad time'). He pairs it with ISM manufacturing as 'a really good leading indicator of small caps doing better' (@48:33) and points to equal-weight S&P outperforming cap-weight; recommends financials, health care, industrials.

The commitments around it: 'We're going to invest billions of dollars. We're going to create 10,000 jobs. We're going to bring online 150,000 gross tons of shipbuilding capacity pretty much on our first phase' @4:24, which he sizes at '1.5x the total shipbuilding capacity in this country today' @4:37.

Directly answering 'do you think the U.S. can beat China when it comes to shipbuilding and autonomous vessels?' He concedes the conventional gap - 'China outbuilds us 230 to 1' @3:52 and 'We have 0.1 percent of shipbuilding capacity' @3:59 - and stakes the win on asymmetric autonomy, 'ships that can be built cheaper and at higher rates and controlled by software' @9:13.

Referring to the president's request: 'He's requested $1.5 trillion for the new budget moving forward' @8:15; today's baseline is 'the Department of War is only spending 1% on autonomy' @8:05, and he wants the 99/1 mix shifted 'more towards new systems' @8:32. Also: 'This is the fastest I have seen the government move on anything in my lifetime. That said, we're still in the early days, like very, very early innings' @7:51.

Asked whether Alameda County's newly approved reparations plan will produce cash payments; his basis: 'most of these cities and counties and state governments... just don't have the cash' @0:34 and Alameda 'came into the year with a 91 million budget deficit' @1:03. His closing swipe that the Newsom diaper-contract 'stench is going to follow him on the campaign trail as he heads out for 2028' @3:23 is rhetorical, not filed separately.

Answering why real household income rose more under Trump than Biden, he opens 'Solely because of policies, Larry, that's all it is' @1:01 and claims the tax bill 'paid for itself in revenues' @1:17. Retrospective attribution on charts the host displays.

He cites an $8,000 real median income increase over Trump's five and a half years as president @2:12, credits 'the tax cuts... drill baby drill... and deregulation of the economy' @2:41. He addresses the host as Larry.

Balanced against a notable secondhand data point he reports: CEOs now 'think the economy is a one and a half percent economy. They would have thought it was a two to two and a half percent economy earlier in the year' (@2:20), with 'a level of caution that I haven't seen so much before' (@2:15), consumers through their savings, Michigan confidence at all-time lows, and energy-price turbulence.

Show billed as her explaining 'why she believes recession risks are building.' Her tells: metals no longer wowing, dollar breaking under 100, TLT reclaiming its 50-day, plus midterm-cycle pressure and war confidence shocks: 'There's a lot of cracks that if they got bigger, we would see that in those areas that I just mentioned.' @12:41. She disarms it herself: 'I don't want people to run out and go, oh, Mish said there's a recession'; host recap: 'Not saying that we're definitely gonna get a recession the next six, eight, 10 months, but she's seeing some cracks.' Notes XRT over 90 makes recession 'hard to make a case for... at this moment.'

Frames the K-shaped read: 'in the K-shaped paradigm, the high end is pretty strong selectively' @0:27, driven by 'the wealth effect and stock market performance globally' @0:33, while 'middle and low income has been under pressure' @0:38 from food, energy and healthcare inflation and is 'cutting back on discretionary spending' @0:55.

'corporate demand so far, this quarter's up 30% business demand' @3:08; 'I looked at the bookings from yesterday, as early as this morning, and just really no change, strength really across the board' @3:30.

'we're gonna have double digits in the mid to high teens for CapEx and GDP, the retail sales are strong, the labor market shows no signs of weakening now. It's actually appears to be firming. Claims are super low' @1:15-1:30; last year's 75bp of easing was based on labor-market concerns that 'now are misplaced' @1:36-1:44.

'The labor market we think will continue to improve here' in the second half @2:32 - he flags this as where Carson differs from consensus. Notes the economy created only 120,000 jobs all of last year while recent months average 'well over 100', unemployment still low; 'AI is nearly half of all real GDP' over the last five quarters @2:40 and he wants the consumer to take the baton. 'We're following the hard data' @3:32; bank CEOs say 'consumers are strong across the board' @3:42.

He concludes 'the consumer feels good and the economy is in a very good spot and could be in a great spot' @9:13, crediting top-down national mood over survey headlines and dismissing data-driven pessimism as headline snowballing @8:42.

23 days of legislative business left to Sep 30; sees no Senate incentive to help; reopening 'could be lame duck' (@39:57)

Democratic strategist (Bully Pulpit International, fmr NSC spokesman); prefers 'a clean CR that gets us through election day' but sees Republican disarray and no Democratic incentive to hand pre-election wins

372 corporate bankruptcies in H1 2026, most in 15 years (S&P); LendingTree personal bankruptcies +50% y/y; 720K left the labor force, participation 61.5%, lowest since 1976 ex-COVID; 'companies cut costs the way they can with what they can control. And they can control headcount.' (@12:29)

On the 5% Billionaire Tax Act ballot measure (Nov); says roughly a trillion dollars of wealth has already left ('it's in the neighborhood'); founders with paper valuations get unpayable bills; he personally stays and pays

MEANING GUARD: 2030-2032 depletion window is his citation of the trustees report, not his forecast; his own claim is 'never fully solved, only patchworks'

Adds: gold 'isn't going to be 4,000 forever. There is no math case' (@3:58, his framing of the level)

Reacting to BofA card-spending strength

Benchmarking his 8090 'software factory' on open-source vs frontier models:

Comparing data-center spending to the 1870s railroad boom:

Lee says the IPO wave boosts the economy via wealth effect and stocks do well until lockup supply hits.

Rick Rule tells Kitco's Jeremy Safran that in the very near term US policymakers will let the market set rates, so US interest rates go higher.

Rick Rule argues a 10-yr Treasury paying ~4.5% loses ~1.5% a year after ~3% inflation, so Treasuries are a losing real-terms hold.

Rick Rule puts total US obligations (federal debt plus NPV of unfunded entitlements) at about $155 trillion, growing ~$4T a year.

Rick Rule says the $4.2B Wheaton-BHP stream is the start of a wave of by-product streaming transactions funding copper mines.

Rick Rule expects at least $50B (2025 dollars; 70-80B nominal) of new precious-metals streaming transactions over the next 10 years.

Rick Rule says more mining M&A is definitely coming (strategic consolidation, lateral mergers, discovery premiums), visible within about six months if junior share prices do not recover first.

Rick Rule expects surprisingly high prices to be paid for major exploration discoveries over the next five years because majors' pipelines are depleted.

Rick Rule says the 30-40% sell-off in quality juniors in 2026 makes accretive takeovers at ~50% premiums possible, which is very good for M&A.

Rick Rule finds political change across Latin America (ex-Brazil) encouraging for mining investment, while noting he does not know how long it lasts.

Todd 'Bubba' Horwitz tells Kitco true US unemployment measured by U6 is 8.5% and getting worse, versus the official U3 figure.

Todd 'Bubba' Horwitz tells Kitco 13% of credit cards are 90+ days past due, 6% of car loans and 4% of mortgages are in default, so the average American cannot afford to invest.

Todd 'Bubba' Horwitz tells Kitco the US is already in a recession, at least the bottom of the K-shaped economy, and it will get worse.

Chamath Palihapitiya tells All-In that Dario Amodei's AI-fear messaging is a rational strategy to build a regulatory moat for Anthropic.

Gavin Baker tells All-In that city bans on Waymo/Cybercab robotaxis will not persist, given 50,000 US road deaths a year and consumer convenience.

David Friedberg tells All-In that the Trump-Xi summit produced aircraft and ag purchases but no grand de-escalation deal, and US-China rivalry will keep escalating.

Chamath Palihapitiya tells All-In the Trump-Xi trip was useful and productive, guessing real alignment on geopolitical next steps happened behind closed doors.

Gavin Baker tells All-In that selling deprecated Nvidia GPUs to China is stabilizing and the best path to keep America ahead in AI, because it lowers the odds China builds its own ecosystem.

Marc Benioff tells All-In he expects the CEOs travelling with Trump to the Xi summit to come back with large order books (planes, chips, soybeans).

Chamath Palihapitiya tells All-In that Andreessen Horowitz is marching from $100B toward $1T of AUM and will be the next Blackstone (no deadline).

Chamath Palihapitiya tells All-In that within 18 months US chip fabs will be close enough to TSMC that Taiwan stops being a central strategic issue.

Marc Benioff tells All-In that the Taiwan conflict is a nonsense issue and China and Taiwan will reconcile.

David Friedberg tells All-In that an Indian monsoon failure is now highly probable this El Nino year, threatening 150 million farmers and risking a South Asian calorie deficit and economic crisis.

David Friedberg tells All-In that a record El Nino could spike energy, electricity and commodity prices worldwide over the next year via crop failures (hedged).

Peter Schiff tells the interviewer the US is broke, with a $38.6T and rising national debt plus larger unfunded liabilities.

Raoul Pal tells Mando that human-centred assets like sports teams keep rising in value because AI cannot replace the human element (cites chess growing despite computers winning).

Raoul Pal, summarising the GMI 2026 outlook he co-publishes, tells Mando the macro view is business cycle up and commodities up.

Raoul Pal tells Mando that over the next ten years digital art becomes an ultra-valuable human artifact in an AI-driven world; it is his biggest bet.

Raoul Pal guesses the no-tax-on-tips relief will reach workers sooner rather than later so the money starts flowing into the US economy ahead of the midterms.

Raoul Pal says all his forward-looking indicators (financial conditions, global rate cuts) point to a strong US business cycle / rising ISM in 2026.

Opens the show with 'The GDP is tracking near 4%.' @1:58; closes citing ~$4T of hyperscaler capex ('about ten times the size of the Manhattan Project' adjusted), trillions in foreign investment pledges including South Korea's $350B 'just today', and 'a level of coordination going on between Washington and Silicon Valley... that gives me cause for incredible hope.' @73:42.

Peter Schiff says US interest rates are going a lot higher from here and when they do the national debt cannot be sustained.

Peter Schiff says the US has already passed the point of no return on its national debt, not merely an unsustainable path.

Peter Schiff says the US does not have the hottest economy in the world and factories are not springing up, citing the weak dollar as money leaving.

Peter Schiff predicts the Trump Treasury will keep issuing short-dated debt rather than terming out, because heavy long-bond issuance would push long rates up.