The U.S. Economy

…to the bonds of the state of California , because of something that's known as the California rule. So the state has this looming kind of cliff ahead of it. And there's already this spiraling problem where they're increasing costs because of the demands of the unions and the cost of living and so on. And there's an exodus of corporations and high net worth individuals that pay the taxes. So I would argue that Governor Newsom did not exactly put a bow tie on the budget and create a balanced budget and leave California in a great state, as he is wrapping up his final term and his final budget here in the state. But in fact, I think that this state, which as I've said in the past threatens to bring down the union, is on the brink of defaults that are going to be so significant that if the federal government was called in to bail them out, because the state cannot declare bankruptcy legally , that all of the red states and all of the other taxpayers in the United States will say , why the hell should I pay federal taxes to bail out California? And I think that's what the story will be over the next decade with the state. So you predict the fiscal condition? AOC and Mondami president, vice president, AOC, Mondami can't be VP, he wasn't born here. I do predict... Yeah, so I predict AOC will be president. I mean, obviously, there's a lot of dispersion of what could happen here. But I would say AOC would be my front runner based on the movement for the extraordinary cost of living in the United States right now, largely because of government spending, the fact that…From: this video · 12 claims mined from it

…is. And then just ask your favorite AI, compare California on the spectrum of Florida versus Illinois. And what you'll find is California is even worse than Illinois in most of those comparisons. Sacks, you want to give us the last word here? Yeah, I mean, I guess my decision to go to Texas is looking better and better. Yeah. I mean, I said when this, when this BTA thing, the so-called billionaire tax act was proposed and everyone was saying, oh, that's very low probability this happens. I was like, I don't really see why it would be low probability. I think it's going to get on the ballot. All you have to do is collect a certain number of signatures. It's not that hard. And then once it's on the ballot, I don't see why it wouldn't pass. And everyone's like, no, no, no. Gavin Newsom is assured us that he'll kill it. He'll make some backroom deal, get rid of it. And on the day, the final day where BTA was going to be dropped from the ballot or not, Newsom came out with a video on X where he basically endorsed more taxes on billionaires. And this was right after the DSA candidates won in New York. So he sees the writing on the wall. He's not going to come out publicly. By the way, the problem with the billionaire tax is that if it does get passed and it isn't obviated by the three other ballot initiatives that actually negate it,…From: this video · 12 claims mined from it

…interest rate differential with the yen . Absolutely. And I think you know the minutes this week will be interesting to see whether there is any more color around that. You know our expectation is that you know most likely they're going to hold rather you know for a while you know at least for the remainder of the year rather than sort of you know jump into those hikes. I think the you know there will be some premium in the curve but I just don't think that the kind of energy price moves we are seeing the kind of broader inflation dynamics are going to you know push them into a kind of very aggressive aggressive hiking cycle. So I think that from that from that standpoint I don't necessarily see a very immediate pickup but I would also set that against the macro outlook. We just took down our recession probability odds over the next 12 months back to kind of the you know long term norm over the past week. So things have moved in a better way in that sense and that I think is going to keep that rate differential somewhat wide. OK. And what do you expect the overall impact of these task forces to be. I mean too early to judge I'm sure is the answer. But do we have any clues yet. I know you were at the Bank of England with when Mervyn King was there and he is one name that we know is going to be attached to one of these task forces. I mean I would make two observations. First I think the main impact is that it buys chair chairman wash time. Right. I think that is I think the key aim for these. I think it gives you some time. You know these things will probably report by the end of the…From: this video · 4 claims mined from it

…first half and the second quarter. The Dow has climbed 8.6% in the first six months of the year. The S&P 500 is also up more than 8% in the first half, while the NASDAQ has outperformed with an 11% advance. Let's get some perspective now. Joining me is Garrett Melson, Portfolio Strategist at Natixis Investment Managers. It's great to have you join us. Good morning. - Thanks for having me, Lizzie. - So now that we're at the kind of midway point of the year, what's your take on the market so far in the direction right now? - Yeah, well, it's certainly, to your point, has been a pretty stunning reversal in the second quarter. I think that sets up some interesting things to keep in mind as we move into the back end of the year. When you think about the broad macro backdrop, it's still fairly supportive in here. Growth, in our opinion, we've kind of coined the phrase ho-hum economy for the U.S. here in 2026. It's doing fine. It's not gangbusters growth, but it's certainly doing just well enough to continue supporting solid earnings upside here, and that I think is underpinning the market. The issue is the result of stronger returns in the second quarter, I think has led to some pretty serious crowding within the AI trade, and so it's not necessarily a death kn ell to the sector. What you have certainly seen, going back to the beginning of June, has been a pretty sharp sentiment shift , a little bit of skepticism around the AI durability, and ultimately that started translating to some rotations. I think that ultimately is encouraging. You're not seeing a whole scale liquid ation in investors bailing on the AI trade…From: this video · 2 claims mined from it

…you allocating that capital? Let's say we got a million bucks to put in different corners of this pie. What do you like most right now? Is this AI specific or this general market? I mean, in the market, I assume you want some Bitcoin in there . Well, okay. So, look, I would have probably 30 percent in Bitcoin. I would probably have a basket of some of these AI companies that I could own. You know, I'm an owner of Astera Labs, which is publicly traded. It's hard to get into these companies that are not publicly traded. I am a SpaceX investor. People think it 's overvalued. I think that that's short-term nonsense . I wouldn't read the noise on SpaceX. I own it. I would always own a slug of the S&P. If you notice, the Mag7 has run, but the other 493 are doing well this year. And I would own some real estate in my portfolio and some gold. And I would sit tight and I would bet the long term of the United States. You have to think like Buffett. The United States is not going anywhere, resilient country. We have our ups and downs. We have bad things that happen to us in the United States. And we do inflict some self-harm, but it's the deepest, most liquid capital market in the world. I don't know your family, Phil Rosen, but I know they're probably nuts because my family is nuts. And most of the families that arrived…From: this video · 7 claims mined from it

…for inflation, not just bad for inflation, and it's a shame. Anytime numbers are announced that are not so good, I wish I could flip it the old way, that when you announce great numbers, 'cause otherwise, it's almost like they wanna kill strength. They wanna kill success. You announce good numbers. I wonder, like, you have a couple of countries. India is one, doing very well, but it's at seven, eight percent. Others take a look at Japan's numbers. I mean, they're doing very well, she's very good, she's doing a good job, a friend of mine, but they're allowed to go up. We're not allowed to go up. If we go up, they wanna kill it. There's no reason we should stop at four percent. We should be at 12 percent and 13 percent GDP. And I hate what happens where, in the old days, we would be, that's how we built the country. Now you announce positive things, and they wanna bring it down by raising interest rates, and it shouldn't be that way. It should go back to the way it was.…From: this video · 3 claims mined from it

…Technical talks had to move forward while the ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz, but you've got to be impressed with where oil is right here. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant saying that gas stations were watching as he backed President Trump's demands for price cuts at the pump, and crude oil is now at $68.84, the average price of gasoline, $3.84 a barrel, Bob. Aren't we blessed to have this administration versus what we had prior ? I think the president is doing an amazing job of dealing with geopolitical economics and so forth. Opening up the straits had a very positive impact, as you said, oil falling, so prices at the pump. That's what a lot of consumers, they talk about food and they talk about fuel. I think I couldn't be more bullish on the economy. We're seeing various industries, various sectors, just really taking off . A&D is taking off with this super cycle . We see a lot of trading going on, multi ples on acquisitions of A&D industry is amazing 13, 14 times earnings, even forward earnings now, rather than trailing 12. Now, you've been talking and you've been working on aerospace. I know you are on the board, you're the chairman of an aerospace company. I want to get your take on what you're seeing there because there's so much money moving into defense tech right now and it all, of course, is on the heels of the president's agenda where he wants mass production of defense equipment happening right now.…From: this video · 1 claim mined from it

…morning Joe economic analyst Steve Rat ner back with charts this morning Looking at how Americans are trying to navigate all of this Steve. Good morning So let's just start by setting the stage as you say American savings really under pressure right now Yeah, will he look savings is obviously of critical importance to Americans is how you pay for future obligations education houses? Whatever and so let's look at what's been happening to the savings rates of Americans as they face this affordability problem the pressure of Inflation on their ability to maintain their living standards and so forth So this is personal savings rate how much of people's after-tax income they put away for these other kinds of expenses that may come along Back in the 1970s that average twelve point two percent of after-tax income in the 90s 7.2 percent in the 2004 point two percent and now after a steady decline we are at two point six percent So Americans are a pretty rock bottom of the amount. They're willing to save another another way to measure how stretched consumers bank accounts and what we call their balance sheet their their savings and their and their capabilities are is to look at emergency savings whether people are in better or worse off to meet an emergency need for cash and so over over the past year 21% have said they have more emergency savings just 21% but 29% have said they…From: this video · 1 claim mined from it

…That's $1,800 billion. Plus, Saudi Arabia, together with the UAE, had pledged to buy weaponry from the American military industrial complex of about $1 trillion. Remember the US military budget used to be about $1 trillion, that's going to go up to $1.5 trillion, and another $1 trillion would come from the Gulf States. And that would have been spent within 2026, early 2027. Together, we're talking about nearly $3 trillion that was about to flow towards it from the Gulf States. That's gone. And it's gone because the Gulf States have lost their liquidity. They're not selling enough oil, but it's not just oil. Dubai has diversified from oil to a very large extent. They are into the business of trading gold. Most of Indian gold is being traded through Dubai. Hotels, I mean, it's a huge tourist business. They are running at 10% of their capacity. 20% of the rooms are empty. They've got, as I said before, they've got something like almost $6 trillion worth of American dollars, but that's a stock. It's a stock of dollars, right? It's not a flow.…From: this video · 3 claims mined from it