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Garrett Melson
Natixis Investment Managers
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Bull
leaning · 2026-07-06
Comparing data-center spending to the 1870s railroad boom:
“we've kind of coined the phrase ho-hum economy for the U.S. here in 2026.”
…first half and the second quarter. The Dow has climbed 8.6% in the first six months of the year. The S&P 500 is also up more than 8% in the first half, while the NASDAQ has outperformed with an 11% advance. Let's get some perspective now. Joining me is Garrett Melson, Portfolio Strategist at Natixis Investment Managers. It's great to have you join us. Good morning. - Thanks for having me, Lizzie. - So now that we're at the kind of midway point of the year, what's your take on the market so far in the direction right now? - Yeah, well, it's certainly, to your point, has been a pretty stunning reversal in the second quarter. I think that sets up some interesting things to keep in mind as we move into the back end of the year. When you think about the broad macro backdrop, it's still fairly supportive in here. Growth, in our opinion, we've kind of coined the phrase ho-hum economy for the U.S. here in 2026. It's doing fine. It's not gangbusters growth, but it's certainly doing just well enough to continue supporting solid earnings upside here, and that I think is underpinning the market. The issue is the result of stronger returns in the second quarter, I think has led to some pretty serious crowding within the AI trade, and so it's not necessarily a death kn ell to the sector. What you have certainly seen, going back to the beginning of June, has been a pretty sharp sentiment shift , a little bit of skepticism around the AI durability, and ultimately that started translating to some rotations. I think that ultimately is encouraging. You're not seeing a whole scale liquid ation in investors bailing on the AI trade…From: this video · 2 claims mined from it
Bear
leaning · 2026-07-06
Asked about the Iran war's likely duration (Jul 2):
“the result of stronger returns in the second quarter, I think has led to some pretty serious crowding within the AI trade”
…Let's get some perspective now. Joining me is Garrett Melson, Portfolio Strategist at Natixis Investment Managers. It's great to have you join us. Good morning. - Thanks for having me, Lizzie. - So now that we're at the kind of midway point of the year, what's your take on the market so far in the direction right now? - Yeah, well, it's certainly, to your point, has been a pretty stunning reversal in the second quarter. I think that sets up some interesting things to keep in mind as we move into the back end of the year. When you think about the broad macro backdrop, it's still fairly supportive in here. Growth, in our opinion, we've kind of coined the phrase ho-hum economy for the U.S. here in 2026. It's doing fine. It's not gangbusters growth, but it's certainly doing just well enough to continue supporting solid earnings upside here, and that I think is underpinning the market. The issue is the result of stronger returns in the second quarter, I think has led to some pretty serious crowding within the AI trade, and so it's not necessarily a death kn ell to the sector. What you have certainly seen, going back to the beginning of June, has been a pretty sharp sentiment shift , a little bit of skepticism around the AI durability, and ultimately that started translating to some rotations. I think that ultimately is encouraging. You're not seeing a whole scale liquid ation in investors bailing on the AI trade and moving to cash. They're simply moving to laggards in here, and so that may be a theme that we have to continue working through to work off some of that excess sentiment and positioning, but ultimately I think the backdrop is still fairly supportive into your end. - Are there any indicators that signal…From: this video · 2 claims mined from it
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