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David Friedberg
Ohalo; All-In Podcast
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David Friedberg tells Rahm Emanuel China is heading to ~8 TW of electricity production while the US sits near 1 TW and will struggle to reach 2 TW by 2040.
I often reference they're on their way to eight terawatt of electricity production. We're kind of sitting around one hovering around one, finding it very hard to get to two by 2040.
David Friedberg tells Rahm Emanuel that over 30 years housing (5%+), education (6%+) and healthcare (5.5%) have inflated far faster than the 2.5% average because government subsidizes them, while unsubsidized sectors deflated.
The average rate of inflation in the last 30 years been two and a half percent. But housing's gone up by at least 5% a year on average compounding education over 6% healthcare five and a half percent.
David Friedberg tells Rahm Emanuel the US fiscal position is untenable: $7T spend vs $5T revenue, $40T debt at 5% implying ~$2T a year of interest.
We're 2 trillion short. We've got 40 trillion a debt 30 years at 5%. That's 2 trillion a year in interest expense.
With 30Y above 5.2 percent he argues risk-free yields beat 50x semis; bonds-over-semis the week chips crashed.
I could now buy a US government bond that pays me 10 percent pre-tax a year. Why the heck would I pay 50 times the earnings for semiconductor stock?
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +1.4% · 7,490 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Absent fiscal correction, yields keep spiking and more inflated assets unwind.
We are going to end up seeing more bubbles pop and more of these assets that we've kind of inflated, if you will, to keep things going.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +1.4% · 7,490 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Predicts persistent inflation forcing hikes, citing war energy pressure and deficits.
you're going to have to raise rates to account for that inflation at some point. And then consumers are going to see three and four, you know, maybe more. God forbid, five or six. And I'll say one more thing, sorry. Inflation will be persistent.
Predicts courts bless AI training as fair use within a couple of years. EVENT: will.
I do think fundamentally that the conversion of that data into what I would call knowledge and ultimately the ability to create new outcomes from that knowledge that are not copyrighted, that are not copies of the original material, I do think is going to end up being the right fair use policy and it's going to be the right read on fair use.
Contrarian: subsidized stores wildly popular, outperform named chains. EVENT: will. Direct duel with Sacks same tape.
I think these grocery stores are going to be wildly popular. They're going to pay their employees above market wages. Employees are not going to have to work very hard to work there. So they're going to be a better place to work. Everyone's going to want to use them. They're going to outperform Whole Foods. They're going to outperform Safeway. They're going to outperform Albertsons.
Self-declared prediction with 2028 horizon. EVENT: will.
I predict that they will be deemed a point of success. And they will end up being a big part of the fuel for the DSA going into 2028.
Citing Ryan Cohen's eBay bid and Josh Kushner/General Catalyst accounting rollups, Freeberg argues AI-native operators will keep acquiring mature, founder-less, over-spending digital businesses to revive them with AI.
“I think there's going to be more of these kinds of deals.”
“by handing it over to a model company to then combine with other people's data, you are effectively commoditizing the asset”
Nasdaq since this was said: ▼ -0.2% · 26,121 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
“firms that spent the most on AI actually grew the fastest. And they tended to grow their head count roughly 10% in the two years following the adoption of AI. And entry level head count rose even faster. It grew at 12%.”
“is on the brink of defaults that are going to be so significant that if the federal government was called in to bail them out”
David Friedberg tells All-In that the over-leveraged global system (310% debt/GDP) will inevitably break into inflation, currency debasement and money printing (no date).
The force of gravity is inevitable. The roller coaster will roll down. We will throw our hands in the air, and we will scream, whee, as we go for the ride. Global debt to GDP is 310%.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +1.6% · 7,473 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
David Friedberg tells All-In that record Japanese yields could catalyze a credit crisis via the carry trade (hedged).
but I would think that this is one of those things that could be a catalyst for a credit crisis because there's a lot of people that are in this carry trade.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +1.6% · 7,473 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
David Friedberg tells All-In that the Trump-Xi summit produced aircraft and ag purchases but no grand de-escalation deal, and US-China rivalry will keep escalating.
but fundamentally the grand deal, the big deal that I would say reduces a deescalates tension probably didn't manifest as some had hoped it would.
David Friedberg tells All-In that horizontal and vertical software stocks trade together today but should diverge, so there is probably an arbitrage (long horizontal / short vertical).
I also think that there's this kind of vertical, horizontal shift where they're kind of trading the same right now, but you could probably break them. You could break that trade. So I think there's probably a good arbitrage there.
Nasdaq since this was said: ▼ -0.5% · 26,225 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
David Friedberg tells All-In that Google can own the personal-assistant layer via Gemini across Gmail/Calendar/Drive and Apple will have to build or white-label to compete.
But they're gonna be up against a formidable competitor is my point, 'cause I think Google Assistant is gonna end up being kind of a real kick-ass product once they get this flywheel going.
David Friedberg tells All-In that an Indian monsoon failure is now highly probable this El Nino year, threatening 150 million farmers and risking a South Asian calorie deficit and economic crisis.
And the scariest one of all is if the monsoons fail, which is now a very high probability event in India.
David Friedberg tells All-In that a record El Nino could spike energy, electricity and commodity prices worldwide over the next year via crop failures (hedged).
But if you think about the second and third effects of this over the next year, you could see energy prices spiking and electricity spiking and the grid failing in parts of the Southwest, commodity prices spiking all over the world.
David Friedberg tells Huang that agentic AI is replacing entire enterprise software stacks overnight, as it did at his company.
Honestly, and that's after people are replacing entire enterprise software stacks in a night.
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