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David Friedberg
Ohalo (CEO); All-In Podcast
First call on the ledger
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With 30Y above 5.2 percent he argues risk-free yields beat 50x semis; bonds-over-semis the week chips crashed.
I could now buy a US government bond that pays me 10 percent pre-tax a year. Why the heck would I pay 50 times the earnings for semiconductor stock?
Nasdaq since this was said: ▲ +4.3% · 25,374 → 26,456 · as of 2026-08-05
Absent fiscal correction, yields keep spiking and more inflated assets unwind.
We are going to end up seeing more bubbles pop and more of these assets that we've kind of inflated, if you will, to keep things going.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +3.4% · 7,490 → 7,742 · as of 2026-08-05
Predicts persistent inflation forcing hikes, citing war energy pressure and deficits.
you're going to have to raise rates to account for that inflation at some point. And then consumers are going to see three and four, you know, maybe more. God forbid, five or six. And I'll say one more thing, sorry. Inflation will be persistent.
Predicts courts bless AI training as fair use within a couple of years. EVENT: will.
I do think fundamentally that the conversion of that data into what I would call knowledge and ultimately the ability to create new outcomes from that knowledge that are not copyrighted, that are not copies of the original material, I do think is going to end up being the right fair use policy and it's going to be the right read on fair use.
Contrarian: subsidized stores wildly popular, outperform named chains. EVENT: will. Direct duel with Sacks same tape.
I think these grocery stores are going to be wildly popular. They're going to pay their employees above market wages. Employees are not going to have to work very hard to work there. So they're going to be a better place to work. Everyone's going to want to use them. They're going to outperform Whole Foods. They're going to outperform Safeway. They're going to outperform Albertsons.
Self-declared prediction with 2028 horizon. EVENT: will.
I predict that they will be deemed a point of success. And they will end up being a big part of the fuel for the DSA going into 2028.
Citing Ryan Cohen's eBay bid and Josh Kushner/General Catalyst accounting rollups, Freeberg argues AI-native operators will keep acquiring mature, founder-less, over-spending digital businesses to revive them with AI.
“I think there's going to be more of these kinds of deals.”
“by handing it over to a model company to then combine with other people's data, you are effectively commoditizing the asset”
Nasdaq since this was said: ▲ +1.3% · 26,121 → 26,456 · as of 2026-08-05
…been they're approaching these large companies with large proprietary data sets and saying, hey, if you share your data, we will give you early access, some sort of proprietary value sign this NDA, and you can participate with us. And I think nearly everyone I've spoken with has woken up to the fact that they are basically trying to commoditize everyone's business because fundamentally, if all of the 10s of billions of dollars you as a life sciences company have invested in experiments and product development, and you've generated all of this proprietary data along the way, that data is a true asset of your organization. It's an asset that you've spent billions of dollars developing. And by handing it over to a model company to then combine with other people's data, you are effectively commoditizing the asset that you have the one kind of core differentiation that you have. And so everyone is largely saying no, the way I see this evolving is very much in line with what Alex Karp suggested on CNBC. If you go back a couple of years, I think we all assumed there was going to be this large hub, large spoke model for AI model development and deployment, meaning there would be these very large clusters. These large clusters would be ultimately capital advantage. So those who had the most capital, which is why everyone's raised 10s and hundreds of billions of dollars , would be able to…From: this video · 12 claims mined from it
“firms that spent the most on AI actually grew the fastest. And they tended to grow their head count roughly 10% in the two years following the adoption of AI. And entry level head count rose even faster. It grew at 12%.”
…In markets where Waymo has hit critical mass, the number of human drivers is going down. That's just a fact. And they're literally stop recruiting. In some narrow arbitrarily defined subset of their jobs, you're pointing to flatness. Exactly. Meanwhile, Dara told us that hiring a cost to the company has gone up in the face of these trends. That's at the company, not the drivers. No. No, you're wrong. Okay. Anyway, we'll agree to disagree here. Let me give you some actual data. Can I provide us this study? So RAMP and Revelio Labs just released a new study in the past week. Yeah, that was great. And it was an actual study of over 21, 000 firms in the US. And they looked at their payroll data combined with their spending on AI. And what they saw is that firms that spent the most on AI actually grew the fastest. And they tended to grow their head count roughly 10% in the two years following the adoption of AI. And entry level head count rose even faster . It grew at 12%. So all this stuff about how entry level head count is going to get wiped out, not true. The more firms adopted AI, the more hiring they did, at least that was a correlation. Obviously, they can't prove causation, but that was the correlation. And then companies that were not high intensity adopters of AI, they either didn't adopt or they were low intensity adopters, they just saw flatness in their head count. So no…From: this video · 12 claims mined from it
“is on the brink of defaults that are going to be so significant that if the federal government was called in to bail them out”
…to the bonds of the state of California , because of something that's known as the California rule. So the state has this looming kind of cliff ahead of it. And there's already this spiraling problem where they're increasing costs because of the demands of the unions and the cost of living and so on. And there's an exodus of corporations and high net worth individuals that pay the taxes. So I would argue that Governor Newsom did not exactly put a bow tie on the budget and create a balanced budget and leave California in a great state, as he is wrapping up his final term and his final budget here in the state. But in fact, I think that this state, which as I've said in the past threatens to bring down the union, is on the brink of defaults that are going to be so significant that if the federal government was called in to bail them out, because the state cannot declare bankruptcy legally , that all of the red states and all of the other taxpayers in the United States will say , why the hell should I pay federal taxes to bail out California? And I think that's what the story will be over the next decade with the state. So you predict the fiscal condition? AOC and Mondami president, vice president, AOC, Mondami can't be VP, he wasn't born here. I do predict... Yeah, so I predict AOC will be president. I mean, obviously, there's a lot of dispersion of what could happen here. But I would say AOC would be my front runner based on the movement for the extraordinary cost of living in the United States right now, largely because of government spending, the fact that…From: this video · 12 claims mined from it
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