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Nvidia from 2026-07-15 to 2026-09-04 · ▲ said up · ▼ said down · dot = the close that day
Date
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2026-08-14
Nasdaq
up
I think AI broadly accelerated in the month of July, which was kind of crazy to contrast with the public stock market action.
Gavin Baker tells Calacanis Anthropic is probably losing share on the margin to OpenAI, open source and Grok, yet still growing exceptionally because the AI pie is exploding.
probably on the margin, Anthropic is losing share to open AI, to open source and to rock, and they're still growing so fast.
Gavin Baker tells Calacanis that software-coder job openings are higher than a year ago, evidence that AI so far is accelerating growth rather than substituting labor, with a caveat on new graduates.
there are more job openings for software coders today than there were a year ago. There's more demand for coders
Gavin Baker tells Calacanis that if AI's effect is accelerating growth (his current read), it will show up in US national accounts within about 18 months.
if it's going to come from accelerating growth, we will start to see that in the national accounts over the next 18 months.
Gavin Baker tells Sacks and Calacanis that data centers will run on natural gas for a while even though the world eventually runs on solar; bullish US gas demand.
I think solar the world will eventually run on sunlight. But we're going to run on natural gas for a while.
Gavin Baker tells Calacanis and Sacks a plausible end state is frontier models taking 65-85% of AI token economic value while open-source models carry ~80% of volume.
And I think a very plausible outcome is one of which frontier tokens are 65 to 85% of the economic value. Open source tokens are like 80% of the volume.
Gavin Baker tells Calacanis he takes the over on Wall Street's 2027 Anthropic revenue consensus by 25-30%, assuming underwriters stand back, declining to take the over on $500B or $1T outright.
I'm going to take the over whatever the wall street consensus is for 27, which I don't know. I'll take a 25 to 30% over on that
Gavin Baker tells Calacanis he leans to the under on Zuckerberg/Meta having the best open-source model within a year, floating Nvidia as an open-source contender.
I might take the under, and there's another American hero, Jitson Wang, and you might see NVIDIA at the open source frontier.
Gavin Baker tells Calacanis Nvidia's bank/PE compute-financing platform is smart and good for everyone because top asset managers are validating GPUs as a financeable asset.
And I think that's smart. That's good for everyone.
Gavin Baker tells Calacanis Nvidia GPUs have long useful lives: CoreWeave is renting 2020 Ampere chips profitably into 2029, implying about nine years.
an ampere that came out in 2020 is going to have a nine-year life
Gavin Baker tells Calacanis that if Anthropic slows compute purchases because demand is lacking there will be a pile-up down the SpaceX/Nvidia/TSMC chain, but not if it is merely losing share to rivals.
It's very simple. If he's slamming on the brakes because there's not demand, there will be a pile up.
Gavin Baker tells Calacanis and Sacks that, reading public signals, Anthropic is cash-generating and profitable, open-source tokens are profitable, and OpenAI will be imminently.
They're profitable. Open source tokens are profitable. Anthropic is profitable. OpenAI, if they're not generating cash, they will be eminently.
Gavin Baker tells Calacanis and Sacks that macro and value investors calling AI a subsidized circular-financing bonfire are wrong because the overwhelming majority of tokens are profitable across the chain.
They're just wrong. The overwhelming majority of tokens are profitable for everyone in the chain.
Gavin Baker tells Sacks and Calacanis that SpaceX investors ignore Grok even though it is Pareto-dominant on many measures, and should factor it into SpaceX's value.
Very few of these investors talk about Grok at all, and it is Pareto dominant on a lot of measures.
Gavin Baker tells Calacanis and Sacks the reported Silver Lake bid for Workday marks the return of a private-equity bid for software after a 12-18 month death spiral, a significant positive for software stocks.
And the return of a private equity bid for software really changes the investing landscape.
Gavin Baker tells Calacanis and Sacks that increasingly competitive open-source models are a godsend for the US software industry, whereas a world of 2-3 dominant frontier models would be hard for software.
I do know that the rise of open source and the increasing competitiveness of open source is a godsend for the American software industry