4 of 15 correct
4 correct, 11 missed; 4 too vague to score. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Since they said it
12 directional calls with a price to read (6 bullish, 6 bearish). 1 week later, with the call in 8 of 12; 1 month later, with the call in 5 of 12; 3 months later, with the call in 1 of 3. Prices as of 2026-09-10. Three fixed windows, the same for every call, always shown together: one week, one month, three months after the first close that followed the tape. What the market did, not a score: a call can have a different horizon, and a view with no number or deadline is never graded here.
Nasdaq from 2026-04-20 to 2026-09-10 · ▲ bullish · ▼ bearish · dot = the close that day
| Date | Market | Call | What was said | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 from 7,600 | S&P 500 | Bullish | I agree with Freiburg about the fact that when you can get 5%, 5.25% from the U.S. government, there's another natural thing that happens, which is that investment grade corporates actually have better credit ratings now than the government of America, which that's a different thing, but you can get really good risk adjusted returns that are 5%, 6%, 7%, which adjusted for taxes are, you know, better than equity returns, meaningfully better on a risk parity basis. | +2.0% with the call | +0.4% with the call | not yet |
| 2026-07-18 from 25,508 | Nasdaq | Bearish (Leaning) | “if things are 21Xing every few months, somebody's going to miss a quarter. I don't know who, but somebody.” | -2.3% with the call | +3.1% against the call | not yet |
| 2026-07-18 from 25,508 | Nasdaq | Bullish | “By 2050, the United States of America will be 2.5 California's worth of energy in deficit.” | -2.3% against the call | +3.1% with the call | not yet |
| 2026-07-14 from 26,269 | Nasdaq | Bearish | “Let's say a barrel of intelligence, which is a million tokens. You can buy that barrel for $26 from Anthropic's really good model.” | -2.2% with the call | +2.0% against the call | not yet |
| 2026-07-14 from 7,572 | S&P 500 | Bullish (Leaning) | “NASDAQ will probably overperform the S&P.” | -1.0% against the call | +3.0% with the call | not yet |
| 2026-07-14 from 7,572 | S&P 500 | Bearish (Leaning) | “the multiples of free cash flow of all these public companies are going to come way in” | -1.0% with the call | +3.0% against the call | not yet |
| 2026-07-10 from 25,873 | Nasdaq | Bearish (Leaning) | “the answer as far as all publicly available data was that the actual ROI was somewhere between zero and 2%.” | -1.4% with the call | +2.2% against the call | not yet |
| 2026-07-06 from 7,504 | S&P 500 | Bearish | “The cost of capital has now with long term rates moved back to what its long run average is, which is around eight to 11 percent. The problem is that half of large U.S. companies now cannot deliver returns that exceed that.” | +0.5% against the call | +2.9% against the call | not yet |
| 2026-07-06 from 25,819 | Nasdaq | Bullish | “if you wrap the open source model with our software factory, it was 16.4 x cheaper” | +1.1% with the call | +2.1% with the call | not yet |
| 2026-05-22 from 214.9 | Nvidia | Bullish | but the reality is that that DSA market evolution is actually happening inside of Nvidia. | +3.7% with the call | -8.9% against the call | -0.8% against the call |
| 2026-05-15 from 26,091 | Nasdaq | Bearish | I think the low end of the market is basically finished. I think there is no safe space. I think the high end of the market, where Mark operates, where the large monoliths operate is quite safe. | +2.2% against the call | -0.3% with the call | +0.8% against the call |
| 2026-05-15 from 26,091 | Nasdaq | Bullish (Leaning) | I think we're a little, I think we're a little oversold. And I now I think this consolidation and the rerating can happen in the opposite direction. | +2.2% with the call | -0.3% against the call | +0.8% with the call |
Scored calls
Correct
Biggest political loser 2024: the Koch family / Koch network in the GOP
Correct
Fed unlikely to cut rates 'anytime soon' (amid Middle East conflict / oil dynamics)
Correct
Long Nikki Haley / short Ron DeSantis on the GOP nomination (relative trade)
Correct
Fed funds will need to reach roughly 5.5%-5.75% (terminal rate)
Missed
“I don't think SpaceX will IPO. I think it will reverse merge into Tesla. I think Elon will use it as a moment to consolidate control and power of his two seminal assets into one cap table.”
Missed
Bitcoin to ~$500K by ~October 2025 (halving-cycle extrapolation, with interim waypoints)
Missed
Biggest business loser 2024: pro sports team valuations have peaked
Missed
Biggest business deal 2024: Starlink goes public (repeat of 2023 call)
Missed
Most contrarian belief 2024: OpenAI's enterprise value goes down
Missed
Biggest business winner 2023: Relativity Space - 'on a trajectory to be as valuable as SpaceX' if launch succeeds
Missed
Biggest business loser 2023: Google Search - 'could lose 10 or 15% of usage' to AI rivals with material, measurable impact
Missed
Biggest business deal 2023: Starlink IPO, valued at least half of SpaceX's private marks
Missed
Most contrarian belief 2023: wage inflation keeps inflation from falling as much as people want
Missed
Best-performing asset 2023: cash + front end of the yield curve (T-bills to 2-year)
Missed
Worst-performing asset 2023: junk debt (plus energy and SF commercial real estate)
Too vague
Biggest political winner 2024: independent centrists
Too vague
Biggest business winner 2024: bootstrapped and/or profitable startups
Too vague
Best asset 2024: long public big tech / short late-stage private tech (spread trade)
Too vague
Bitcoin to “cross the chasm” into mainstream adoption - “a part of the traditional financial lexicon by the end of 2024” (most anticipated trend)
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
BullishThe S&P 500
With Treasuries above 5 percent, IG credit at 5-7 percent beats equities risk-adjusted, pressuring stretched AI valuations.
I agree with Freiburg about the fact that when you can get 5%, 5.25% from the U.S. government, there's another natural thing that happens, which is that investment grade corporates actually have better credit ratings now than the government of America, which that's a different thing, but you can get really good risk adjusted returns that are 5%, 6%, 7%, which adjusted for taxes are, you know, better than equity returns, meaningfully better on a risk parity basis.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +1.4% · 7,490 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
NeutralAi Market
Frames the fork: duopoly holds means 5-10T each; open-source shift or token efficiency questions the premium.
if the answer is that it is a duopoly, then there is no risk to the revenue five to 10 years from now. These things are five to 10 trillion dollar companies each. But if you are right, or if there are harnesses that cut the token consumption because you stop wasting tokens to get to the same output, then it's a little bit more of a question mark.
All-In on the Situational Awareness blowup; asked about the chip-stock crash and the fund's margin call.
If I was going to give you one piece of advice when you're running risk is you have to manage leverage incredibly carefully because when it runs ahead of you, the unwind is incredibly violent and it's incredibly quick. [...] the rumors are he was running like three and a half turns [...] a 25 percent move is amplified 75 percent.
Nasdaq since this was said: ▲ +2.8% · 25,374 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
NeutralThe AI Trade
Chamath backs the SRO because 'a torrent of money' will try to buy regulatory capture on both political sides; establishing self-set rules and superseding federal oversight avoids a duopoly and killing open source.
“I think it's really important. And I hope it happens quickly.”
Nasdaq since this was said: ▲ +2.2% · 25,520 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishThe AI IPOs
Chamath argues AI-native operators + capital (Stripe/Advent/Block for PayPal, Ryan Cohen/eBay, Bending Spoons rollups) will revive 'flaccid' founder-less digital businesses; he expects a big wave of such mega deals over the next couple years.
“I will make a prediction. I think that eBay and PayPal are probably the beginning of a wave of mega deals”
BullishMedia Mergers
On the ~$53B ($60/share) Stripe-Advent-Block offer for PayPal, Chamath says the final price will be higher and hints a strategic ('$4-5 trillion market cap') bidder could enter.
“this is probably not the final clearing price. I think the price is probably another 10 to 15% higher from here.”
BearishThe AI Trade
Building on Ramp CEO Eric Glyman's clip that token spend among Ramp customers grew 21x in a year, Chamath calls uncontrolled AI token spend 'a money burning furnace' that will eventually surprise CFOs.
“if things are 21Xing every few months, somebody's going to miss a quarter. I don't know who, but somebody.”
Nasdaq since this was said: ▲ +2.2% · 25,520 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishThe AI Trade
Chamath says the US is 'massively short electrons,' citing a PJM auction that sought 7-8 GW but drew only ~156 MW, and Elon's behind-the-meter turbine workaround; he frames power as the binding constraint on AI.
“By 2050, the United States of America will be 2.5 California's worth of energy in deficit.”
Nasdaq since this was said: ▲ +2.2% · 25,520 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
BearishThe AI Trade
His oil analogy for frontier token pricing: OpenAI also $26, Anthropic's latest $56, Elon $1, Zuck $1.50, Demis and Sundar $1, 'The Chinese will sell it to you for $0.50. So this rationalization has to happen.' (@2:10); explicitly declines the host's invite to call an LLM break; discloses his seat: 'My entire job is selling enterprise opportunities.' (@0:24)
“Let's say a barrel of intelligence, which is a million tokens. You can buy that barrel for $26 from Anthropic's really good model.”
Nasdaq since this was said: ▼ -0.1% · 26,107 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
BearishThe AI Trade
'The CEOs and the CFOs, in my opinion, probably have no idea how much token maxing is going on inside of their organizations.' (@3:20); 'if you see a bunch of public companies in the next few quarters miss because of an OpEx miss' the market discounts that technology (@5:07); said the day IBM's prelim revenue wiped out $69B, the most since at least 1968 (Bloomberg tape @14:24)
“I suspect what will happen is one day you're going to have a miss, and EPS will be off by a few pennies. And the CEO will say to the CFO, what happened?”
Nasdaq since this was said: ▼ -0.1% · 26,107 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishThe S&P 500
'The hardware and memory complex is going to run for another couple of years because there are enormous constraints in that ecosystem.' (@4:44)
“NASDAQ will probably overperform the S&P.”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +0.6% · 7,544 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
BearishThe S&P 500
Extended Squawk Pod version of the Jul 14 interview; mechanism: a competitor with a cheap barrel of intelligence can attack any incumbent, so markets stop paying for 20 years of cash flows; 'worth some multiple of the first five to seven years only' (@56:14)
“the multiples of free cash flow of all these public companies are going to come way in”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +0.6% · 7,544 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishSpaceX
Discloses long exposure via Founders Fund/Swarm history; sees industrial logic in SpaceX acquiring Tesla (fair premium 'probably a 50% premium' given lawsuit risk); 'The spectrum he bought from Charlie Ergen I think is going to get lit up' (@54:28); self-labels the phone-device call as speculation
“tens of millions of people all around the world that will pay him incrementally for that. I think that is what's being slept on. That is the key asset.”
BullishAI, Jobs & Productivity
Bezos-camp answer on tape; cites Disney animators 10x after Pixar, radiologists multiplying after Khosla's call, chauffeur drivers 2x after Uber; on Dario: 'very deeply afraid... they've just been wrong consistently'; 'the sky is not falling' (@48:05)
“there's going to be a lot more jobs”
BearishThe U.S. Economy
On the 5% Billionaire Tax Act ballot measure (Nov); says roughly a trillion dollars of wealth has already left ('it's in the neighborhood'); founders with paper valuations get unpayable bills; he personally stays and pays
“some sort of quasi bankrupt moment”
NeutralThe AI IPOs
ADVICE TO THE LABS, not investor sell advice: IPO now, 'at a huge price', before the token-cost reckoning he describes becomes visible; his own CTO's numbers (costs doubling every 45 days, ~5% productivity gain) are the setup
“So I suspect that if you can get out now, you should get out now before all of that starts to seep into the water table.”
BearishThe AI Trade
His own query on S&P 493 EPS lift from AI since 2024
“the answer as far as all publicly available data was that the actual ROI was somewhere between zero and 2%.”
Nasdaq since this was said: ▼ -0.8% · 26,282 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
BearishThe AI Trade
On corporate AI token spend
“At some point, you're going to have to show an ROI that's above the risk free rate of return. Otherwise, you're going to have some angry investors on your hands.”
Nasdaq since this was said: ▼ -0.8% · 26,282 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
BearishThe S&P 500
“The cost of capital has now with long term rates moved back to what its long run average is, which is around eight to 11 percent. The problem is that half of large U.S. companies now cannot deliver returns that exceed that.”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +0.7% · 7,537 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishThe AI Trade
Goldman's 12-month dollar-yen forecast:
“if you wrap the open source model with our software factory, it was 16.4 x cheaper”
Nasdaq since this was said: ▼ -0.2% · 26,121 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishTesla
“I spent time with Elon. I've looked at Optimus. I can tell you Optimus is better than what Figure is doing.”
BullishAI, Jobs & Productivity
“every single package sorting, every single package delivery will not be done by humans in 10 years. And it's starting today”
BullishAI, Jobs & Productivity
Chamath Palihapitiya tells the All-In audience that compute plus recursive self-learning could deliver an order-of-magnitude model improvement per year, a new Moore's law (hedged 'potentially').
You can potentially live out this idea that there is an order of magnitude improvement on a yearly basis.
NeutralThe U.S. Economy
Chamath Palihapitiya tells All-In that Dario Amodei's AI-fear messaging is a rational strategy to build a regulatory moat for Anthropic.
It makes enormous sense for Dario to try to create the boundary conditions for a regulatory moat because he will be inside of the tent pissing out.
NeutralAI, Jobs & Productivity
Chamath Palihapitiya tells All-In that Amazon warehouses run 35-40% labor churn, evidence those jobs are not worth protecting from robots without asking the workers.
Amazon has 35% or 40% churn inside of their warehouses.
NeutralAI, Jobs & Productivity
Chamath Palihapitiya tells All-In that China being under nine months behind the US in AI is a good thing because it enables detente; he wants KYC on frontier models rather than broad regulation.
I think it's actually good that China is less than nine months behind us.
BullishSpaceX
Chamath Palihapitiya tells All-In that SpaceX will do $25-30B of revenue in 2026, up from $18-19B in 2025.
Well, last year it did 18, 19 billion dollars. It'll probably do 25 to 30 this year, okay.
BullishSpaceX
Chamath Palihapitiya tells All-In that SpaceX revenue will be roughly $40-45B in 2027 and double again in 2028.
So I suspect what happens is next year, it's probably 40, 45 billion. And then the year after that, it probably doubles again.
NeutralTesla
Chamath Palihapitiya tells All-In that Tesla will be merged into SpaceX (no deadline).
And as I've told you, that will get merged in.
Tesla since this was said: ▼ -14.7% · 426.0 → 363.6 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishSpaceX
Chamath Palihapitiya tells All-In that a combined SpaceX/Tesla asset base will look cheap at today's ~$2T valuation within a few years.
That thing will look very cheap, I think, in a few years.
BullishSpaceX
Chamath Palihapitiya tells All-In that SpaceX/xAI terrestrial data centers alone will produce $100-200B of revenue by 2030-2032.
I would flex the revenue and realize that terrestrial data centers alone are a hundred or $200 billion of revenue by 2030
BullishAI Winners & Chips
Chamath Palihapitiya tells All-In that the domain-specific-accelerator shift he expected after the Groq deal is instead happening inside Nvidia via co-design with every lab.
but the reality is that that DSA market evolution is actually happening inside of Nvidia.
Nvidia since this was said: ▲ +1.4% · 215.3 → 218.4 · as of 2026-09-10
NeutralStock Picks
Chamath Palihapitiya tells All-In that despite flashing macro signals there are pockets of the market worth owning for 10 years (five or fewer names) and everything else should not be speculated in.
I think there's pockets of the market that still make sense that you can underwrite if you wanna buy businesses that represent the future.
NeutralThe U.S. Economy
Chamath Palihapitiya tells All-In the Trump-Xi trip was useful and productive, guessing real alignment on geopolitical next steps happened behind closed doors.
I think that it was a useful and productive trip.
BullishThe U.S. Economy
Chamath Palihapitiya tells All-In that Andreessen Horowitz is marching from $100B toward $1T of AUM and will be the next Blackstone (no deadline).
They're marching towards a trillion. They're going to be the next blackstone
NeutralThe U.S. Economy
Chamath Palihapitiya tells All-In that within 18 months US chip fabs will be close enough to TSMC that Taiwan stops being a central strategic issue.
We're 18 months from Taiwan not being an important moment of conversation the way it is today.
NeutralAI Winners & Chips
Chamath Palihapitiya tells All-In the US should sell top chips to China so Nvidia keeps the market and Huawei never gets room to build a competitive chip.
Number two, sell the chips. And the reason we should sell the chips is we want Nvidia to win. We do not want to give enough oxygen for Huawei to then all of a sudden emerge and have a version of a chip that works
BearishThe AI Trade
Chamath Palihapitiya tells All-In that low-end SaaS is finished while large incumbents like Salesforce are safe because enterprise AI deployment is proving hard.
I think the low end of the market is basically finished. I think there is no safe space. I think the high end of the market, where Mark operates, where the large monoliths operate is quite safe.
Nasdaq since this was said: ▼ -0.5% · 26,225 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishThe AI Trade
Chamath Palihapitiya tells All-In that large-cap enterprise software is oversold and can re-rate upward; the opposite trade is incumbents with strong net dollar retention.
I think we're a little, I think we're a little oversold. And I now I think this consolidation and the rerating can happen in the opposite direction.
Nasdaq since this was said: ▼ -0.5% · 26,225 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
BearishThe AI Trade
Chamath Palihapitiya tells All-In that once markets ask for the ROI on $3T of AI spend, AI-lab revenue multiples will come way down while incumbent software multiples recover.
So I think you're going to see these revenues, which are like way out of whack, like the multiples on revenue, multiples on assets, multiples of they're not even multiples of debt. Those will come way back down. And I think these go back up and you'll find a balance.
Nasdaq since this was said: ▼ -0.5% · 26,225 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
NeutralThe AI IPOs
Chamath Palihapitiya tells All-In that once SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI go public there will be a wave of lawsuits among layered-SPV sellers; treats those IPOs as given (no date).
By the way, and I will guarantee you this, once SpaceX goes public, once Anthropic goes public, once OpenAI goes public, you're going to see a litany of these lawsuits back and forth between the purveyors of these SPVs.
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Before you trust the call, check the record.
We write down what public figures predict, in their exact words, and check the result when the deadline arrives. Every line links to its source. How we score · Corrections · The scoreboard · The data
© 2026 Pundit Rumble · independent and unaffiliated · updated every market morning · not investment advice.
We write down what public figures predict, in their exact words, and check the result when the deadline arrives. Every line links to its source. How we score · Corrections · The scoreboard · The data
© 2026 Pundit Rumble · independent and unaffiliated · updated every market morning · not investment advice.