Chamath

…but I want to be able to protect myself in doing so. And then the second is I want the flexibility where there's an independent third party control plane that I use to get all these benefits so that I don't leak and cede my advantages away. And I think Alex is an incredible, smart, brilliant guy, and he completely nailed it. And I think he called out on its face the huge risk of this. So let me just give you this narrative in three tweets. The first one is I read this really interesting study from BCG and what they looked at was the return on capital employed or ROCE of various businesses. And this is what's incredible. The cost of capital has now with long term rates moved back to what its long run average is, which is around eight to 11 percent. What that means is like that is the actual cost that you would borrow money at effectively. The problem is that half of large U.S. companies now cannot deliver returns that exceed that. That is a really big problem. And then second, there's a further problem, which is that persistently low returns. So in the, you know, one, two, three, four, five percent is about one in seven companies all around the world. Okay. So why is this important to note? It means that being in business is complicated. It's hard. Not everything works all the time.…From: this video · 12 claims mined from it

…it on a very typical enterprise task, which is you have an old piece of code, you want to migrate it, and you want to maintain it in a new framework so that it's easier and more flexible, pretty straightforward task. And so we ran it and we ran an experiment where we did Claude by itself, then we did US plus Claude, and then we ran it on the best frontier open source model, and then us plus that model. And the data is crazy. So when you use our harness with Claude , it was simultaneously 1.4 x cheaper and 1.5 x faster than just using Empropic Opus 4. 8 alone. But if you wrap the open source model with our software factory, it was 16.4 x cheaper . Now it was three times slower. But you know, you're talking about a couple of extra hours to save 16.4 x. So that one, the slowness, Chamath, is that slowness because of the hardware being served up by Claude? Or is it this is open router ? No, this was all using open router on a very traditional hardware stack. So look, I think the reality is, could that be optimized even further? Absolutely. But my point is, if you take Saksis points, and then if you take Alex Carp's point, and just this actual data , there is a very legitimate question, which is if you are a reasonable company, why are you…From: this video · 12 claims mined from it

…a lot hard to replace with AI. Totally. I do worry about, well, what happens in some of these other countries that are doing the super entry level stuff? Because I think that is right for your place. So they'll have massive job loss. Why don't it be massive, but that's where the risk is. I mean, frankly, it 's not in the US. Maybe we're getting to some consensus here. Job displacement versus job loss. Here is Brett Adcock sharing what they 're doing at Figure. They had an eight- hour challenge to have this robot they're building stored packages, and they did it for 200 hours. That's today. This is the least good it will ever be. This is the worst it's going to ever be. These things are getting really good. I spent time with Elon. I've looked at Optimus. I can tell you Optimus is better than what Figure is doing. What Optimus is going to do when Bezos and Andy Jassy are the least optimists inside of the Amazon factories is it's going to get rid of every-- let me state this very clearly-- every single package sorting, every single package delivery will not be done by humans in 10 years. And it's starting today, just like the idea that you would put together some of this consumer electronic stuff in factories with humans has gone away over time. And other countries-- I think you're making a very good point here, Sacks-- are going to experience it first. In America, knowledge workers, the entrepreneurial spirit, I think we 're going to see a Cambrian explosion in…From: this video · 12 claims mined from it

…'s not in the US. Maybe we're getting to some consensus here. Job displacement versus job loss. Here is Brett Adcock sharing what they 're doing at Figure. They had an eight- hour challenge to have this robot they're building stored packages, and they did it for 200 hours. That's today. This is the least good it will ever be. This is the worst it's going to ever be. These things are getting really good. I spent time with Elon. I've looked at Optimus. I can tell you Optimus is better than what Figure is doing. What Optimus is going to do when Bezos and Andy Jassy are the least optimists inside of the Amazon factories is it's going to get rid of every-- let me state this very clearly-- every single package sorting, every single package delivery will not be done by humans in 10 years. And it's starting today, just like the idea that you would put together some of this consumer electronic stuff in factories with humans has gone away over time. And other countries-- I think you're making a very good point here, Sacks-- are going to experience it first. In America, knowledge workers, the entrepreneurial spirit, I think we 're going to see a Cambrian explosion in startups, which means we're going to be the ones who benefit from it. But if you're looking at those other countries, they'll see it acutely first. We're just going to see it here with drivers, and that's 5, 10 million people, like we saw it with cashiers. The idea of going to a cash ier at a fast food restaurant, which I know you guys don't…From: this video · 12 claims mined from it