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Chamath

Chamath

Social Capital
Photo: Christopher Michel, CC BY-SA 4.0
4 of 15 correct

4 correct, 11 missed; 4 too vague to score. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.

Scored calls

Said Jan 6, 2024 · deadline Dec 31, 2024Correct
Biggest political loser 2024: the Koch family / Koch network in the GOP
What happened: AFP endorsed Haley (Nov 2023), suspended her funding Feb 25, 2024; Trump won nomination and presidency over Koch-network preferences
Source: All-In E160 (via Jan 2025 recap)
Said Oct 9, 2023 · deadline Apr 2024 (Rule 4 default: 6 months)Correct
Fed unlikely to cut rates 'anytime soon' (amid Middle East conflict / oil dynamics)
What happened: First cut came Sep 18, 2024 - 11 months later. Markets at the time priced cuts beginning H1 2024
Source: The Daily Hodl
Said Jan 6, 2023 · deadline Dec 31, 2023Correct
Long Nikki Haley / short Ron DeSantis on the GOP nomination (relative trade)
What happened: DeSantis collapsed through 2023 (quit Jan 21, 2024); Haley rose to clear #2 and outlasted him
Source: All-In E110 transcript
Said Mar 2023 · deadline Event-based (peak of cycle)Correct
Fed funds will need to reach roughly 5.5%-5.75% (terminal rate)
What happened: Peak was 5.25%-5.50% (Jul 2023, held 13 months) - upper bound touches the bottom edge of his range
Source: The Daily Hodl
Said Mar 5, 2026 · deadline Jun 12, 2026 (IPO leg); Jun 30, 2027 (merger leg)Missed
“I don't think SpaceX will IPO. I think it will reverse merge into Tesla. I think Elon will use it as a moment to consolidate control and power of his two seminal assets into one cap table.”
What happened: SpaceX completed a standalone Nasdaq IPO; first trade Jun 12, 2026 at $150.00. No Tesla reverse merger.
Source: All-In Podcast via Stocktwits
Said May 31, 2024 · deadline Oct 31, 2025Missed
Bitcoin to ~$500K by ~October 2025 (halving-cycle extrapolation, with interim waypoints)
What happened: BTC all-time high was ~$126K (early Oct 2025) - ~75% below target. First waypoint (~$100K at 6mo) roughly hit (Dec 4, 2024)
Source: Benzinga via TradingView
Said Jan 6, 2024 · deadline Dec 31, 2024Missed
Biggest business loser 2024: pro sports team valuations have peaked
What happened: Valuations kept rising: NBA avg ~$4.4B (+15% YoY); record ~$76B/11yr NBA media deal (Jul 2024); Celtics later sold at record ~$6.1B
Source: All-In E160 / Forbes
Said Jan 6, 2024 · deadline Dec 31, 2024Missed
Biggest business deal 2024: Starlink goes public (repeat of 2023 call)
What happened: No Starlink IPO in 2024
Source: All-In E160 (via Jan 2025 recap)
Said Jan 6, 2024 · deadline Dec 31, 2024Missed
Most contrarian belief 2024: OpenAI's enterprise value goes down
What happened: Valuation nearly doubled: ~$86B tender (early 2024) -> $157B round closed Oct 2024
Source: All-In E160 (via Jan 2025 recap)
Said Jan 6, 2023 · deadline Dec 31, 2023Missed
Biggest business winner 2023: Relativity Space - 'on a trajectory to be as valuable as SpaceX' if launch succeeds
What happened: Terran 1 failed to reach orbit (Mar 22-23, 2023); rocket retired weeks later; company later needed a rescue takeover
Source: All-In E110 / CNBC
Said Jan 6, 2023 · deadline Dec 31, 2023Missed
Biggest business loser 2023: Google Search - 'could lose 10 or 15% of usage' to AI rivals with material, measurable impact
What happened: Search revenue GREW to ~$175B in 2023; ~91-92% global share held; Alphabet stock +58%
Source: All-In E110 transcript
Said Jan 6, 2023 · deadline Dec 31, 2023Missed
Biggest business deal 2023: Starlink IPO, valued at least half of SpaceX's private marks
What happened: No Starlink IPO in 2023 (or since)
Source: All-In E110 transcript
Said Jan 6, 2023 · deadline Dec 31, 2023Missed
Most contrarian belief 2023: wage inflation keeps inflation from falling as much as people want
What happened: CPI fell 6.5% -> 3.4% during 2023; disinflation matched/beat consensus
Source: All-In E110 transcript
Said Jan 6, 2023 · deadline Dec 31, 2023Missed
Best-performing asset 2023: cash + front end of the yield curve (T-bills to 2-year)
What happened: T-bills returned ~5%; S&P 500 +26%, Nasdaq-100 +54%
Source: All-In E110 transcript
Said Jan 6, 2023 · deadline Dec 31, 2023Missed
Worst-performing asset 2023: junk debt (plus energy and SF commercial real estate)
What happened: High-yield returned ~+13% - one of the better fixed-income assets; energy roughly flat
Source: All-In E110 transcript
Said Jan 6, 2024 · deadline Dec 31, 2024Too vague
Biggest political winner 2024: independent centrists
Source: All-In E160 (via Jan 2025 recap)
Said Jan 6, 2024 · deadline Dec 31, 2024Too vague
Biggest business winner 2024: bootstrapped and/or profitable startups
Source: All-In E160 (via Jan 2025 recap)
Said Jan 6, 2024 · deadline Dec 31, 2024Too vague
Best asset 2024: long public big tech / short late-stage private tech (spread trade)
Source: All-In E160 (via Jan 2025 recap)
Said Jan 6, 2024 · deadline Dec 31, 2024Too vague
Bitcoin to “cross the chasm” into mainstream adoption - “a part of the traditional financial lexicon by the end of 2024” (most anticipated trend)
Source: All-In E160 transcript

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Every line on this site is backed by a dated, sourced entry in our records. We write down what public figures predict, then check when reality answers. How we score · Corrections
Pundit Rumble · punditrumble.com · built 2026-07-09 from the records · never hand-edited · not investment advice.