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Homin Lee
Lombard Odier (senior macro strategist, Asia)
First call on the ledger
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else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
'That's the reason why we're still keeping a constructive view on the medium term trajectory of the market' @51:52; on valuation: 'now we see forward P multiples trading close to six or seven for some names, and that's quite compelling for the medium to long term' @55:12; memory makers' long-term price agreements and US export controls 'still keep the dominant position for these names' @53:18.
“valuations and the unwind of the leverage trade, maybe the trajectory for the rest of the year, despite the volatility that we see now, is maybe higher before the end of the year.”
'in the long run, the real threat to the memory bottleneck trade in South Korea comes from China' @50:28; 'That leads you to all the mega listings that are on the horizon, which it now seems the authorities are quite supportive of' @50:45; suggests China 'has been a relatively neglected market, maybe it's worth having that as a hedge alongside the South Korea trade' @53:06.
“And in the second half of the year, we 're going to get a bit of narrative shift in favor of China's AI and semiconductor ecosystem.”
'fees from the M&A activities and trading continue to be pretty strong, not just in North America but the markets around the world' @53:58; 'delivers that nice combination of slight defensiveness, evaluation appeal, and the earnings stability' @54:15, favored 'alongside... emerging markets' into H2.
“So in fact, the financial sector is one of the sectors that we like. The valuation is quite compelling.”
NeutralTariffs
leaning · 2026-07-20
On this week's Section 122 ('one-to-two') tariff expiration being replaced with sector- and country-specific tariffs: 'it's not going to be easy for the Trump administration to replace or actually raise the effective tariff rates significantly from what we had before the spring cord ruling' @57:26 ('cord' = whisper for court); expects volatility from the mechanics but net-manageable outcome.
“Now, our assumption is that the overall effective tariff rate will remain close to the pre-spring cord ruling level, and that's manageable for the market”
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