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Louis-Vincent Gave
Gavekal
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Louis-Vincent Gave (Gavekal) says the US budget deficit will be 7% of GDP this year at full employment, with France near 6%
US budget deficit this year is going to be 7% of GDP. Six years into an economic recovery with full employment. France is probably going to be at six.
Gave says easy fiscal, easy money, protectionism and wars are each bearish bonds, so it is hard to get excited about bonds until one changes
So any one of these factors would be bearish bonds. You put them all forth together and you have what we have. Bond yields rising every day. And I think until one of these things changes, it's pretty hard to get that fired up about bonds.
Gave hopes protectionism is the first factor to break under price pressure but says so with very low conviction
So I think that maybe the first thing that goes is the inherent protectionism that's been a key driver of our world, really, since COVID.
Gave says hyperscaler debt needs to fund AI capex this year equal ~70% of the US budget deficit
their debt needs to fund the capital spending boom is roughly equivalent to 70 percent of the U.S. budget deficit.
Gave says the AI capex boom itself is pushing the price of capital and bond yields up by adding another deficit's worth of capital demand
So all of a sudden, it's like we've added another U.S. budget deficit into the balance, where, you know, that's more demand for capital. So everybody's competing for capital, the price of capital goes up.
Gave says bonds no longer diversify equity risk; energy stocks now do that job in portfolios
So they no longer do the job that they did in portfolios for 30 years. Interestingly, what does do the job now is energy stocks.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +4.3% · 93.03 → 97.02 · as of 2026-09-10
Gave's allocation call: replace 60/40 with 60% equities, 20% energy, 20% metals on the infrastructure spending boom
now you need to be 60 equities, 20% energy, and yeah, 20% metals because the infrastructure spending boom that we are in the middle of
Gold since this was said: ▲ +0.9% · 4,394 → 4,435 · as of 2026-09-10
Gave takes comfort in Korean equities because banks rose 5% while the KOSPI fell a third in July, though adding Korea now adds volatility
So it tells you, I think, that the underlying fundamentals of Korea, when the banks actually do fine, to me, that gives me a lot of comfort.
Gave says a resolution in Ukraine or the Gulf could unlock Chinese stimulus and another leg of the 2024-25 China bull market; conditional
If either we get resolution in Russia, Ukraine, or we get resolution in the Gulf, this could open the door for Chinese stimulus and another leg up from the 24 and 25 bull market that started.
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