David Sacks
Craft Ventures / All-In Podcast
Photo: Editorial (Option A policy, Jun 10, 2026) - owner-supplied
First call on the ledger
No calls filed yet. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Since they said it
9 directional calls with a price to read (7 bullish, 2 bearish). 1 week later, with the call in 5 of 9; 1 month later, with the call in 4 of 6. Prices as of 2026-09-11. Three fixed windows, the same for every call, always shown together: one week, one month, three months after the first close that followed the tape. What the market did, not a score: a call can have a different horizon, and a view with no number or deadline is never graded here.
Nasdaq from 2026-06-08 to 2026-09-10 · ▲ bullish · ▼ bearish · dot = the close that day
| Date | Market | Call | What was said | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 from 26,645 | Nasdaq | Bullish | I do think the TAM is big enough. I think the demand is going to be there. | -2.5% against the call | not yet | not yet |
| 2026-08-14 from 84.50 | WTI crude | Bullish | The green stuff can't scale in the short term. It's all gas powered for the new data centers. | +0.6% with the call | not yet | not yet |
| 2026-08-11 from 26,588 | Nasdaq | Bullish | We are way ahead of China. I think we're probably about six to 12 months ahead of China in terms of the models. | -1.0% against the call | not yet | not yet |
| 2026-08-02 from 7,600 | S&P 500 | Bullish (Leaning) | Well, I think that is the key question here is this correction in the markets, is it driven by fundamentals or is it driven by momentum? And my view is that I think it's driven by momentum | +2.0% with the call | +0.4% with the call | not yet |
| 2026-08-02 from 25,914 | Nasdaq | Bullish | And my view is that it's real that I think there will be a return on all of this cap X. | +2.7% with the call | +0.7% with the call | not yet |
| 2026-07-31 from 25,914 | Nasdaq | Bullish | I think it was Warren Buffett or maybe Munger who said that leverage is the only way that smart people go broke [...] if you're not using leverage, your portfolio would just be down 30% this month. [...] but if you're leveraged three or four X, you're wiped out and you get margin called. | +2.7% with the call | +0.7% with the call | not yet |
| 2026-07-18 from 25,508 | Nasdaq | Bearish | “I tweeted that anthropic is running a sophisticated regulatory capture strategy based on fear mongering.” | -2.3% with the call | +3.1% against the call | not yet |
| 2026-07-18 from 25,508 | Nasdaq | Bullish | “data centers are honestly one of the best things we could be building as a nation.” | -2.3% against the call | +3.1% with the call | not yet |
| 2026-07-06 from 25,819 | Nasdaq | Bearish | “every single one of these vertical apps expanded into categories that was previously served by companies building on top of Anthropic's own models” | +1.1% against the call | +2.1% against the call | not yet |
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
BullishThe AI IPOs
David Sacks tells Calacanis Anthropic's 10x/yr revenue ramp can continue, though compute/energy limits and share loss are legitimate questions.
Well, I think it can continue, although it is a legitimate question because if you're ending the year at, let's say, $100 billion run rate up 10x plus year over year
BullishThe AI Trade
David Sacks tells Calacanis demand for AI tokens will keep growing exponentially and the TAM is big enough; the constraint is physical supply.
I do think the TAM is big enough. I think the demand is going to be there.
Nasdaq since this was said: ▼ -2.4% · 26,729 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishThe AI IPOs
David Sacks tells Calacanis he hears OpenAI's growth is now 20%+ month over month after its coding pivot, a 10x annualized pace matching Anthropic.
which if you extrapolate it out over 12 months, would be a 10x growth rate. So you're now seeing OpenAI growing as fast as Anthropic
David Sacks · Craft Ventures / All-In Podcast · https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kVzYGVJ8zUk @11:26 ↗NeutralInflation
David Sacks tells Calacanis and Baker data centers do not raise power prices; rising electricity prices in blue states are due to decarbonization and green regulation.
The real reason why electricity prices are rising in blue states is because of decarbonization.
David Sacks · Craft Ventures / All-In Podcast · https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kVzYGVJ8zUk @21:02 ↗BullishOil & Gas
David Sacks tells Calacanis renewables cannot scale in the next year or two, so new data centers will be gas-powered.
The green stuff can't scale in the short term. It's all gas powered for the new data centers.
David Sacks · Craft Ventures / All-In Podcast · https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kVzYGVJ8zUk @22:12 ↗WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +20.9% · 82.40 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
BullishAI Winners & Chips
David Sacks tells Calacanis Anthropic's pricing power may be sustainable because a meaningful subset of customers will pay a premium for frontier intelligence, as long as it stays in the lead.
So now look, I actually think that their pricing power may be quite sustainable, because I think people are willing to pay not the whole market, not the whole market, but a decent subset of the market is willing to pay a premium for true frontier intelligence.
David Sacks · Craft Ventures / All-In Podcast · https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kVzYGVJ8zUk @44:07 ↗BullishThe AI IPOs
David Sacks tells Calacanis Anthropic exiting 2027 at $400-500B ARR seems very comfortable.
I actually was going to say four to 500 billion does exit ARR for next year. Seems very comfortable.
David Sacks · Craft Ventures / All-In Podcast · https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kVzYGVJ8zUk @51:47 ↗NeutralThe U.S. Economy
David Sacks tells Calacanis forcing Amazon to employ DSP drivers would raise costs about $5.20 per package and $664 per household per year and put ~5,000 jobs at risk.
But I'm not sure it will. What we do know it will do is raise the cost of packages by about $5.20 per package. And it will cost families $664 more per year.
David Sacks · Craft Ventures / All-In Podcast · https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kVzYGVJ8zUk @86:40 ↗BullishSpaceX
David Sacks tells Calacanis Musk's compute clusters are a call option on becoming a frontier lab and a put option on selling compute to the frontier labs.
So that you can think of that as like the call option is to catch up and become a true frontier lab. But if he fails at that, he's got the put option of just selling the compute.
David Sacks · Craft Ventures / All-In Podcast · https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kVzYGVJ8zUk @92:45 ↗BullishThe AI Trade
David Sacks tells Fox Business the US is roughly six to 12 months ahead of China in frontier AI models.
We are way ahead of China. I think we're probably about six to 12 months ahead of China in terms of the models.
Nasdaq since this was said: ▼ -1.4% · 26,445 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishThe AI Trade
David Sacks tells Fox Business the US will keep its AI lead as long as companies are not burdened with unnecessary bureaucratic hoops.
So as long as we don't subject our companies to a lot of unnecessary bureaucratic hoops, we will stay in the lead in this AI race.
Nasdaq since this was said: ▼ -1.4% · 26,445 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
NeutralAI Winners & Chips
David Sacks tells Fox Business Anthropic is growing from about $10bn a year of revenue to over $100bn of revenue this year.
Anthropic is growing from something like $10 billion a year of revenue to over $100 billion of revenue this year.
NeutralThe AI Trade
David Sacks tells Fox Business AI capex is $800bn this year and expected to exceed $1.4tn, or 3% of GDP, next year.
So CAPEX, which is basically just investment in the hardware layer and construction of data centers, is expected to be 3% of GDP next year. It's $800 billion this year. It's over $1.4 trillion next year.
Nasdaq since this was said: ▼ -1.4% · 26,445 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishThe U.S. Economy
David Sacks tells Fox Business that AI capex plus Trump tax and energy policy is producing an economic boom.
So all of this is leading to an economic boom in the economy.
BullishThe AI Trade
David Sacks tells Fox Business the software-side productivity boom from AI is only just getting started.
The boom on the software side, which is the productivity gains from all these companies and these consumers becoming more productive because they're using the software, that is just getting started.
Nasdaq since this was said: ▼ -1.4% · 26,445 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishThe AI Trade
Calls the chip crash momentum-driven froth, not an AI-fundamentals verdict, at the crash lows.
Well, I think that is the key question here is this correction in the markets, is it driven by fundamentals or is it driven by momentum? And my view is that I think it's driven by momentum
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +1.4% · 7,490 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishThe AI Trade
Defends hyperscaler AI capex as sound investment with eventual ROI.
And my view is that it's real that I think there will be a return on all of this cap X.
Nasdaq since this was said: ▲ +2.8% · 25,374 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishAi Market
Predicts Anthropic ends 2026 above 100B ARR growing 10x; the duopoly thesis. EVENT: will, year-end 2026.
they are creating the biggest, most powerful monopoly of all time. Again, they're going to end the year with over 100 billion of ARR growing 10x year over year.
BullishThe AI Trade
Demand outstripping buildout forces compute prices up, entrenching revenue leaders. EVENT: will.
I think that the price of compute is going to go up and that will provide an advantage to the models that have the most lucrative algorithms that are able to produce the most intelligence per watt
Nasdaq since this was said: ▲ +2.8% · 25,374 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
BearishPolitics
Predicts Mamdani city stores end with empty shelves and incompetence. EVENT: will (stores open by 2029).
It may play and, you know, look, when people first go to these stores and they first open and the shelves are full, yeah, the people will be like delighted. And then over time, what's going to happen is that the store shelves will be empty and it's going to be in competently run.
All-In; his verdict on what the blowup means. Holds the AI capex thesis intact; blames leverage alone.
I think it was Warren Buffett or maybe Munger who said that leverage is the only way that smart people go broke [...] if you're not using leverage, your portfolio would just be down 30% this month. [...] but if you're leveraged three or four X, you're wiped out and you get margin called.
Nasdaq since this was said: ▲ +2.8% · 25,374 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
NeutralThe AI Trade
Sacks endorses Demis Hassabis's FINRA-style SRO proposal over a government AI agency, laying out five conditions (broad industry representation incl. open source, frontier-only, catastrophic risk only, voluntary-first, must substitute not add). Warns the SRO is 'the opening bid' unless kept 'pure.'
“if my choices are between FAA for AI, or what I would call the DMV for AI, I would much rather go for Demis' SRO for AI, the self regulatory approach”
Nasdaq since this was said: ▲ +2.2% · 25,520 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
BearishThe AI Trade
Sacks reiterates his Oct 2024 claim, citing a Politico piece ('inside anthropic state by state plan to ratchet up AI rules') and Anthropic funding groups like Public First to argue the company deliberately drives a patchwork of ever-stricter state AI rules to pull the ladder up.
“I tweeted that anthropic is running a sophisticated regulatory capture strategy based on fear mongering.”
Nasdaq since this was said: ▲ +2.2% · 25,520 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishThe AI IPOs
Sacks relays Gavin Baker's view while arguing Anthropic is 'one of the biggest of the big tech companies' with a trillion-dollar mark today and the leading AI company by revenue.
“Gavin Baker thinks it'll be at three trillion after the IPO.”
BullishThe AI Trade
Rebutting NY Gov. Hochul's statewide hyperscale-data-center moratorium, Sacks calls her claims false, defends behind-the-meter power, land-use efficiency, closed-loop water ('same water as two and a half In-N-Out burgers'), and natural-gas cleanliness.
“data centers are honestly one of the best things we could be building as a nation.”
Nasdaq since this was said: ▲ +2.2% · 25,520 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
BearishAI Winners & Chips
Arguing closed frontier models are winning enterprise
“I think that open source went from 19% last year to 11% this year. So open source, as a share of enterprise spending is actually decreasing.”
BullishAI Winners & Chips
“anyone who's saying that these close models are gonna lose or are somehow losing, you're just not seeing it in the data”
BearishThe AI Trade
“every single one of these vertical apps expanded into categories that was previously served by companies building on top of Anthropic's own models”
Nasdaq since this was said: ▼ -0.2% · 26,121 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
BearishThe AI Trade
“these enterprises are at risk of transferring their knowledge, their know-how, their trade secrets, their customer data to these model providers who might eventually decide to compete with them”
Nasdaq since this was said: ▼ -0.2% · 26,121 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
BearishAI, Jobs & Productivity
“In the cities where Waymo is present and has gotten past a couple of hundred cars, they've stopped recruiting drivers. Drivers are either static or going down in those markets.”
BearishThe U.S. Economy
“once it's on the ballot, I don't see why it wouldn't pass.”
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We write down what public figures predict, in their exact words, and check the result when the deadline arrives. Every line links to its source. How we score · Corrections · The scoreboard · The data
© 2026 Pundit Rumble · independent and unaffiliated · updated every market morning · not investment advice.
We write down what public figures predict, in their exact words, and check the result when the deadline arrives. Every line links to its source. How we score · Corrections · The scoreboard · The data
© 2026 Pundit Rumble · independent and unaffiliated · updated every market morning · not investment advice.