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David Sacks

David Sacks

Craft Ventures / All-In Podcast
Photo: Editorial (Option A policy, Jun 10, 2026) - owner-supplied
First call on the ledger

No calls filed yet. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.

Where they stand

Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.

BullThe AI Trade leaning · 2026-08-02
Calls the chip crash momentum-driven froth, not an AI-fundamentals verdict, at the crash lows.
Well, I think that is the key question here is this correction in the markets, is it driven by fundamentals or is it driven by momentum? And my view is that I think it's driven by momentum
David Sacks · Craft Ventures / All-In Podcast · All-In Podcast ↗
Nasdaq since this was said: +4.3% · 25,374 → 26,456 · as of 2026-08-05
BullThe AI Trade 2026-08-02
Defends hyperscaler AI capex as sound investment with eventual ROI.
And my view is that it's real that I think there will be a return on all of this cap X.
David Sacks · Craft Ventures / All-In Podcast · All-In Podcast ↗
Nasdaq since this was said: +4.3% · 25,374 → 26,456 · as of 2026-08-05
BullAi Market 2026-08-02
Predicts Anthropic ends 2026 above 100B ARR growing 10x; the duopoly thesis. EVENT: will, year-end 2026.
they are creating the biggest, most powerful monopoly of all time. Again, they're going to end the year with over 100 billion of ARR growing 10x year over year.
David Sacks · Craft Ventures / All-In Podcast · All-In Podcast ↗
BullThe AI Trade 2026-08-02
Demand outstripping buildout forces compute prices up, entrenching revenue leaders. EVENT: will.
I think that the price of compute is going to go up and that will provide an advantage to the models that have the most lucrative algorithms that are able to produce the most intelligence per watt
David Sacks · Craft Ventures / All-In Podcast · All-In Podcast ↗
Nasdaq since this was said: +4.3% · 25,374 → 26,456 · as of 2026-08-05
BearPolitics 2026-08-02
Predicts Mamdani city stores end with empty shelves and incompetence. EVENT: will (stores open by 2029).
It may play and, you know, look, when people first go to these stores and they first open and the shelves are full, yeah, the people will be like delighted. And then over time, what's going to happen is that the store shelves will be empty and it's going to be in competently run.
David Sacks · Craft Ventures / All-In Podcast · All-In Podcast ↗
All-In; his verdict on what the blowup means. Holds the AI capex thesis intact; blames leverage alone.
I think it was Warren Buffett or maybe Munger who said that leverage is the only way that smart people go broke [...] if you're not using leverage, your portfolio would just be down 30% this month. [...] but if you're leveraged three or four X, you're wiped out and you get margin called.
David Sacks · Craft Ventures / All-In Podcast · All-In Podcast ↗
NeutralThe AI Trade 2026-07-18
Sacks endorses Demis Hassabis's FINRA-style SRO proposal over a government AI agency, laying out five conditions (broad industry representation incl. open source, frontier-only, catastrophic risk only, voluntary-first, must substitute not add). Warns the SRO is 'the opening bid' unless kept 'pure.'
“if my choices are between FAA for AI, or what I would call the DMV for AI, I would much rather go for Demis' SRO for AI, the self regulatory approach”
David Sacks · Craft Ventures / All-In Podcast · All-In ↗
Nasdaq since this was said: +3.7% · 25,520 → 26,456 · as of 2026-08-05
BearThe AI Trade 2026-07-18
Sacks reiterates his Oct 2024 claim, citing a Politico piece ('inside anthropic state by state plan to ratchet up AI rules') and Anthropic funding groups like Public First to argue the company deliberately drives a patchwork of ever-stricter state AI rules to pull the ladder up.
“I tweeted that anthropic is running a sophisticated regulatory capture strategy based on fear mongering.”
David Sacks · Craft Ventures / All-In Podcast · All-In ↗
Nasdaq since this was said: +3.7% · 25,520 → 26,456 · as of 2026-08-05
BullThe AI IPOs leaning · 2026-07-18
Sacks relays Gavin Baker's view while arguing Anthropic is 'one of the biggest of the big tech companies' with a trillion-dollar mark today and the leading AI company by revenue.
“Gavin Baker thinks it'll be at three trillion after the IPO.”
David Sacks · Craft Ventures / All-In Podcast · All-In ↗
BullThe AI Trade 2026-07-18
Rebutting NY Gov. Hochul's statewide hyperscale-data-center moratorium, Sacks calls her claims false, defends behind-the-meter power, land-use efficiency, closed-loop water ('same water as two and a half In-N-Out burgers'), and natural-gas cleanliness.
“data centers are honestly one of the best things we could be building as a nation.”
David Sacks · Craft Ventures / All-In Podcast · All-In ↗
Nasdaq since this was said: +3.7% · 25,520 → 26,456 · as of 2026-08-05
BearAI Winners & Chips leaning · 2026-07-10
Arguing closed frontier models are winning enterprise
“I think that open source went from 19% last year to 11% this year. So open source, as a share of enterprise spending is actually decreasing.”
David Sacks · Craft Ventures / All-In Podcast · All-In Podcast ↗
BullAI Winners & Chips 2026-07-10
“anyone who's saying that these close models are gonna lose or are somehow losing, you're just not seeing it in the data”
David Sacks · Craft Ventures / All-In Podcast · All-In Podcast ↗
BearThe AI Trade 2026-07-06
“every single one of these vertical apps expanded into categories that was previously served by companies building on top of Anthropic's own models”
David Sacks · Craft Ventures / All-In Podcast · YouTube ↗
Nasdaq since this was said: +1.3% · 26,121 → 26,456 · as of 2026-08-05
…with the launch of Claude Design. So this was a new vertical app that Anthropic launched to compete in the design category. And Figma's founder said that Anthropic had not been completely honest with them, Anthropic's chief product officer had actually even served on Figma's board and didn't resign until three days before the launch of Claude Design. So obviously Figma again felt blind sided by this. And you can see the resulting impact on their stock price. Figma's stock has fallen something like 50% this year while Anthropic's valuation has surged. This is not an isolated example. Anthropic has also launched Claude Science, Claude Security, Claude Legal, Claude Financial, and of course Claude Code, and every single one of these vertical apps expanded into categories that was previously served by companies building on top of Anthropic's own models. And really, if you want to go back to when Anthropic's revenue explosion began, it was with the launch of Claude Code. And how did they know to launch that product? Because they saw that cursor was doing extremely well. Cursor was one of their biggest customers. They created the coding assistant first . They created that category. And Anthropic said, "Oh, like why don't we vertically integrate?" So in other words, they're watching where the value is being created on top of their models. Then they're moving in directly. And this is a formula that I think is…From: this video · 12 claims mined from it
BearThe AI Trade 2026-07-06
“these enterprises are at risk of transferring their knowledge, their know-how, their trade secrets, their customer data to these model providers who might eventually decide to compete with them”
David Sacks · Craft Ventures / All-In Podcast · YouTube ↗
Nasdaq since this was said: +1.3% · 26,121 → 26,456 · as of 2026-08-05
…strong. But let's go back to this supposed crashout by Karp on CNBC. It was nothing of the sort. It was all these legacy media types making that claim. And that's the first clue that he's actually saying something insightful and maybe kind of brilliant. And I think the thing that he said that I hadn't really thought about in quite those terms is he started talking about AI safety in the enterprise and what that really looks like. And what he said is that what technical customers want is control over their compute, their models, their data stack, and their alpha, meaning their proprietary knowledge. They want to know they own the means of production, he said, and it's not being transferred to someone else. And what he's referring to there is that these enterprises are at risk of transferring their knowledge, their know-how, their trade secrets, their customer data to these model providers who might eventually decide to compete with them. Like you said, JCal, and you can see that enterprises are waking up to this threat and they're not happy about it. And I think Karp is exactly right about that. Now, I think this is a really interesting take on AI safety because what safety means for an enterprise is, again, that they get to control their own data, their model weights, their compute, so a frontier lab can't hoover up their proprietary knowledge, their alpha, and turn it into their next product.…From: this video · 12 claims mined from it
“In the cities where Waymo is present and has gotten past a couple of hundred cars, they've stopped recruiting drivers. Drivers are either static or going down in those markets.”
David Sacks · Craft Ventures / All-In Podcast · YouTube ↗
…do work. Okay. But do you think cabs and cities are not going to be self-driving? Do you think Zipline's not going to deliver your food? You're doing the Montanbailey thing again, JCal. It's not Montanbailey. I see this from my investments. I have a company, Autolane, that is doing this right now. But just go to customer support again, because you've been saying, yeah. I literally, we've had this debate ver batim and- Well, displacement, not job loss is my only point. Yeah, yeah, yeah. What Freiburg is pointing out is that whenever anyone pushes back on the fact that you don't have any data to support this in the present, you say you're talking about the future. Okay, fine. It's a prediction. There's no data to support it in the present. That's fine. You're saying it's going to happen in the future. No, no. I'll give you the data point. Oh, you will? You can dismiss what I want. I will. Yes. If you talk to Uber and Waymo, in the cities where Waymo is present and has gotten past a couple of hundred cars, they've stopped recruiting drivers. Drivers are either static or going down in those markets. So that is absolute evidence that this is happening and the rollout is going to be fast and furious. So it is not a future prediction. You can talk to the CEO of Waymo, you can talk to the CEO of Lyft and Uber, and they will tell you this explicitly. That's called marketing. I remember that. We interviewed Darren. He said jobs were increasing at Uber. Yeah. Because you're talking about more . Because productivity is going up with delivery. Productivity goes up. So it means people drive more. I'm not lying. You 're being disingenuous. No. The last time we interviewed Darren , on stage, he said jobs were going up. In markets where Waymo is, in markets where Waymo is, there might be other…From: this video · 12 claims mined from it
BearThe U.S. Economy leaning · 2026-07-06
“once it's on the ballot, I don't see why it wouldn't pass.”
David Sacks · Craft Ventures / All-In Podcast · YouTube ↗
…is. And then just ask your favorite AI, compare California on the spectrum of Florida versus Illinois. And what you'll find is California is even worse than Illinois in most of those comparisons. Sacks, you want to give us the last word here? Yeah, I mean, I guess my decision to go to Texas is looking better and better. Yeah. I mean, I said when this, when this BTA thing, the so-called billionaire tax act was proposed and everyone was saying, oh, that's very low probability this happens. I was like, I don't really see why it would be low probability. I think it's going to get on the ballot. All you have to do is collect a certain number of signatures. It's not that hard. And then once it's on the ballot, I don't see why it wouldn't pass. And everyone's like, no, no, no. Gavin Newsom is assured us that he'll kill it. He'll make some backroom deal, get rid of it. And on the day, the final day where BTA was going to be dropped from the ballot or not, Newsom came out with a video on X where he basically endorsed more taxes on billionaires. And this was right after the DSA candidates won in New York. So he sees the writing on the wall. He's not going to come out publicly. By the way, the problem with the billionaire tax is that if it does get passed and it isn't obviated by the three other ballot initiatives that actually negate it,…From: this video · 12 claims mined from it

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