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Mark Cranfield
Bloomberg Markets Live (MLIV strategist)
First call on the ledger
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else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
Intervention alone cannot rescue the yen without BOJ tightening; USDJPY never broke 155.
Until they do so, it's very much a one-sided situation where you've got currency intervention, but no change in monetary policy. Until the two come together, you're not going to get a sustained gain in the Japanese currency.
Dollar-yen has just topped 163, a fresh four-decade low. Cranfield says intervention only knocks dollar-yen down by a couple of big figures and the BoJ is well behind the curve: 'Everything is very skewed towards the yen remaining a weak currency' @8:02; 'So if we're repeating the 1980s, there's a very long way to go' @8:45.
“And unless they can persuade the Japanese pension funds to move large amounts of money back home, the yen will stay undervalued and it will be something that traders don't fear.”
Reacting to Trump's just-announced 100% generic-drug tariffs from August 2028 and threatened 10% blanket tariffs; he says traders take them 'with a pinch of salt' @5:03 because tariffs get proposed then pulled, and 'the market reaction is extremely small' @5:27.
“but for the time being, the whole idea that tariffs are a really big deal for financial markets, that's really last year's story. For now, the narrative is about AI.”
Brent above $90 after a ninth night of US strikes on Iran (from ~$70 at the start of July). 'Yields will have to reprice higher if you're going to have oil in a sustained period where it's 90 plus' @7:20; 'That is not a pretty picture for anybody really' @7:35.
“So for some time we were getting used to oil being in a nice range between 70 and 80 dollars. Now we're suddenly thinking it might be in a 90 to 100 dollar range again.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▼ -10.3% · 83.23 → 74.66 · as of 2026-08-05
Korea reopening after regulators suspended new single-stock leveraged-ETF listings; 'most of that selling was pretty much done... buy the rumor, sell the fact' @8:33-8:39; markets 'might not finish too badly, providing that we don't get any oil prices that... suddenly jump to $100' @8:25. On the China-AI shock: 'For now, it looks like a knee-jerk reaction' @10:17.
“It's a question now that if you were fortunate enough to be out of this, this is a dip buying scenario for some people.”
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