← Leaderboard
BH
Brett Heath
Metalla Royalty
First call on the ledger
No calls filed yet. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything
else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
Brett Heath (Metalla Royalty CEO) expects oil to go higher because damaged infrastructure takes years to repair and demand outruns supply
And so I think oil is set to go higher. A lot of the infrastructure that has been damaged is going to take multiple years to repair.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +4.3% · 93.03 → 97.02 · as of 2026-09-10
Heath expects US long-end yields to keep rising because leveraged hedge funds have replaced central banks as the marginal Treasury buyer
And it looks with hedge funds being kind of the marginal material buyer, those rates are gonna go up at the long end.
Heath says a rising long end pushes mortgages up, real estate down and cost of capital higher across Western economies
So this affects everything, 30 year mortgages, real estate markets gonna go down, the affordability for the whole economy is gonna go up, cost of capital basically for not just the US, but I'd say kind of broader Western governments and industries are gonna go higher.
Heath sees $4,000 as gold's floor with central bank buying underneath, says gold has broken its downtrend and is likely to go higher
I think 4,000 probably is the floor. I mean, it could go test that again. That's definitely not a potential for it to happen, but gold has broken its downtrend. It is consolidating.
Gold since this was said: ▲ +0.9% · 4,394 → 4,435 · as of 2026-09-10
Heath says gold miners (GDX at ~20x trailing, decade low) have record margins, cheap multiples and light positioning, i.e. under-owned
You've got GDX trailing PE at 20X, which is about a decade low, and managed money net longs right now, or I think as of recently has just been around 43%.
Gold since this was said: ▲ +0.9% · 4,394 → 4,435 · as of 2026-09-10
Heath says the gold-to-XAU ratio broke a 15-year consolidation, so mining equities should materially outperform the metal
We just saw that breakout, meaning that the mining equities are basically positioned to materially outperform the metal, which was completely different on the first run.
Gold since this was said: ▲ +0.9% · 4,394 → 4,435 · as of 2026-09-10
Heath expects mining indexes to break to new highs on the next move up, well before gold does
but I think on the next move higher, it likely that they will, and they probably will break out to new highs well before gold does.
Gold since this was said: ▲ +0.9% · 4,394 → 4,435 · as of 2026-09-10
Heath says sovereign rotation from Treasuries into gold is a long-term trend with ~$9T of foreign-held Treasuries still to move; he does not expect it to stop
There's still another $9 trillion of US Treasuries sitting on foreign central banks balance sheet. So there's still a lot that has to be moved.
Gold since this was said: ▲ +0.9% · 4,394 → 4,435 · as of 2026-09-10
Heath senses the world is moving into a contraction-type environment, while distrusting official statistics
But it does feel that generally like the world's kind of moving into more of a contraction type environment.
Heath states Metalla's Taca Taca (First Quantum) and Copper World (Hudbay) royalties should come online around 2030 (company milestone)
So two of our largest copper royalties, our Royalty on First Quantum's Takataka and our Royalty on Hubbe's Copper World are both set to come online kind of in and around 2030.
Heath says copper is the unpriced binding constraint of the AI buildout because AI is a power problem before a chip problem
Copper is really, I think the part that nobody's pricing within the AI story. Like AI is really a power problem before it's a chip problem. And the power runs on copper, right? Everyone is watching AI trade through chips and the binding constraint is really copper.
Heath says copper supply cannot respond to price because a major mine takes ~18 years versus 18 months for a data center
But the reality is you can build a data setter in 18 months. To build a major copper mine, it takes 18 years. So price is not going to change that.
Heath reports Metalla's record Q2 revenue, adjusted EBITDA and first net income despite gold 21% off its high (company milestone)
we just printed the best quarter in the company's history. We had record revenue. We had our first real kind of net income, while gold was down 21% from its high.
Heath says royalty and streaming companies are well placed for the next gold cycle as higher cost of capital pushes miners to royalty financing (talking his book)
And royalty, I think companies are gonna be very well placed in general for the next few years as we move into this next cycle with gold.
Gold since this was said: ▲ +0.9% · 4,394 → 4,435 · as of 2026-09-10
Follow Brett Heath
One short email when Brett puts a new call on the record, and when a verdict lands on one. Plain words, free.