← Leaderboard
First call on the ledger
No calls filed yet. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything
else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
Ven Ram (Bloomberg MLIV) says yen strength driven by GPIF reallocation fears could force portfolio deleveraging and stoke cross-asset volatility.
to the extent that the dynamic continues I think it's going to cause portfolio managers to deleverage the portfolios and stroke volatility.
Ven Ram says yen gains can feed on themselves in a self-fulfilling spiral that could continue for now.
this is this could be a self fulfilling prophecy where the yen gains in the yen feed more gains in the spot. And that spiral vicious spiral could continue for it for the time being.
Dollar-yen since this was said: ▲ +0.0% · 153.9 → 153.9 · as of 2026-09-11
Ven Ram expects the UK's record-cost gilt sale to be well digested given only a mild concession.
to the extent that the concession is is nominal and mild I think it's a it's going to be well digested by the markets.
Ven Ram says the gilt selloff is part of a global rise in long-end yields because the equilibrium rate has risen with heavy debt supply, not a UK-specific aversion.
there is nothing to suggest that you know there is an aversion to guilt as per say what we are seeing is a global increase in yields particularly at the long end
Ven Ram (Bloomberg MLIV) tells Lacqua a soft CPI could spark a tactical rally in Treasuries from record-short positioning, but yields resume rising because neither the Fed nor Treasury is addressing inflation or deficits.
I think there is a case for a tactical rally in duration but I do think that once those short positions are flushed out I think that then we'll set bill towards new short positions because the market is going to be episodic in its sell-offs
US 10-yr yield since this was said: 4.68% → 4.94% (+26 bp) · as of 2026-09-10
Ven Ram tells Lacqua the Bank of Japan needs to raise rates faster to reach neutral, which is why the yen is under pressure.
I think they need to be raising rates at a quicker pace we are they are nowhere near neutral and the first stop that they need to get to is neutral and they need to do it as of yesterday not as of tomorrow
Ven Ram tells Lacqua Japanese officials will intervene again if the yen weakens back to 160-163 per dollar.
if the yen goes back to one sixty to one sixty three levels I think we will see those interventions
Ven Ram (Bloomberg) tells anchor Bonnie Quinn the Treasury selloff is deeply concerning: bond vigilantes are punishing fiscal profligacy and the inflation overshoot, keeping yields under upward pressure.
It is deeply concerning for the bond markets, and bond market vigilantes are in action clearly, and they want answers.
Ven Ram tells Bonnie Quinn the US Treasury cannot keep rescuing the yen (tiny FX reserves), so it is on the BOJ to fix it.
there are limits to how far the Treasury can rescue the yen, because the US effects reserves are pretty minuscule in comparison to what a lot of the other economies have.
Ven Ram tells Bonnie Quinn that if the BOJ hikes quickly to neutral, the yen will strengthen.
If they did that quickly enough, the markets will correct themselves, and the yen will go higher.
Dollar-yen since this was said: ▼ -3.3% · 159.2 → 153.9 · as of 2026-09-11
Skeptical Bessent can engineer a stronger yen with anemic US FX reserves; he wants to circle a lot of squares, it's not happening.
I think that you know it's a bit of fear mongering on the part of Besant to suggest that the wide Asian currencies could weaken on the back of the yen. What has been happening in Asia is completely different.
the hawk-talker vs the hold-voter
“Will the real Walsh stand up here?”
Follow Ven Ram
One short email when Ven puts a new call on the record, and when a verdict lands on one. Plain words, free.