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Jens Eisenschmidt
Morgan Stanley
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Jens Eisenschmidt (Morgan Stanley) tells Bloomberg the euro-area economy has been remarkably resilient to the oil shock and ECB policymakers were vindicated.
the European business cycle, if we just focus for a second on Europe, has been extremely remarkably resilient
BearEurope
hedged · 2026-09-08
Eisenschmidt warns that if oil persists or rises further, Europe will eventually see higher inflation and a dent to growth.
the looming threat is if this persists, if it gets higher, we will see we will start to see at some point a dent higher inflation and a dent in the business cycle.
Eisenschmidt says an ECB hike to 2.50% at next week's meeting is out of question and fully priced.
So the ECB is clearly set to go to 250 to hike. That I think is out of question.
Eisenschmidt says Morgan Stanley thinks the September ECB hike is the last (market prices two more), predicated on growth softening and energy prices stopping their rise.
The market currently is pricing two more hikes. We think this is it. But of course, this is predicated on that the business cycle at some point starts to show weakness and that energy prices stop rising further.
BullEurope
leaning · 2026-09-08
Eisenschmidt says euro-area long-term yields have risen too far given the ECB is done in September, i.e. he expects Bunds/long bonds to recover.
given that we believe the ECB is done in September, we think that years have gone too far.
NeutralEurope
hedged · 2026-09-08
Eisenschmidt does not expect mechanical spread widening but says euro sovereign spreads are a space to watch as political risk and volatility return.
So I think we would simply say it's a space to be watched and volatility staging a big comeback.
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