Jason Calacanis
Launch / All-In Podcast
Photo: Editorial (Option A policy, Jun 10, 2026) - owner-supplied
First call on the ledger
No calls filed yet. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Since they said it
6 directional calls with a price to read (5 bullish, 1 bearish). 1 week later, with the call in 4 of 6; 1 month later, with the call in 0 of 4; 3 months later, with the call in 1 of 2. Prices as of 2026-09-11. Three fixed windows, the same for every call, always shown together: one week, one month, three months after the first close that followed the tape. What the market did, not a score: a call can have a different horizon, and a view with no number or deadline is never graded here.
Nasdaq from 2026-06-15 to 2026-09-10 · ▲ bullish · ▼ bearish · dot = the close that day
| Date | Market | Call | What was said | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 from 26,645 | Nasdaq | Bullish | If you put those numbers together, you're looking at a trillion dollars in AI spend just in the United States | -2.5% against the call | not yet | not yet |
| 2026-08-14 from 261.3 | Amazon | Bullish | So that's my message as a long term shareholder in Amazon, I have a very big position in Amazon, and I keep increasing it every year | +0.3% with the call | not yet | not yet |
| 2026-07-18 from 326.6 | Apple | Bullish | “I think Apple is a screaming buy right now. And that's not financial advice.” | +3.2% with the call | -5.1% against the call | not yet |
| 2026-07-10 from 25,873 | Nasdaq | Bearish | “everybody's going to learn how to drop the price by 95%.” | -1.4% with the call | +2.2% against the call | not yet |
| 2026-05-22 from 93.89 | WTI crude | Bullish (Leaning) | so wars never get resolved quickly. That's one thing we've learned in our lifetimes. Oil is driving inflation massively higher. | -0.1% against the call | -23.4% against the call | -12.3% against the call |
| 2026-05-15 from 297.8 | Apple | Bullish (Leaning) | I think the future of this is gonna be local models running on extraordinary desktop hardware. And if you have employees on this level of hardware running these models local, like I have started to do, they become 10 times more valuable than the employees not running it. I think Apple is my choice for the next year. | +3.5% with the call | -0.6% against the call | +4.1% with the call |
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
BearishThe AI IPOs
Jason Calacanis tells Sacks and Baker Anthropic's growth slows sharply in 2027 as corporate America adopts far cheaper open-source models: no way to $1T, maybe a triple to $300-400B.
I think anthropics growth rate is going to slow considerably next year. And it's been obviously on a terror. There's no way they get to a trillion in revenue next year. I think maybe they could, you know, triple get to three or 400 million.
BullishAI Winners & Chips
Jason Calacanis guarantees to Baker that Zuckerberg/Meta will have the best open-source model within a year.
He's going to be the open source hero from America. He is going to have the best open source model in the next year. I guarantee it here on the online podcast.
BullishThe AI Trade
Jason Calacanis tells Baker and Sacks US firms will spend 5-10% of employee salaries on AI tokens, implying roughly $1T (or at least $500B) of US AI spend, so there is no bubble.
If you put those numbers together, you're looking at a trillion dollars in AI spend just in the United States
Nasdaq since this was said: ▼ -2.4% · 26,729 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishStock Picks
Jason Calacanis, criticizing Amazon's DSP model, says he is a long-term Amazon shareholder with a very big position he keeps increasing every year.
So that's my message as a long term shareholder in Amazon, I have a very big position in Amazon, and I keep increasing it every year
Amazon since this was said: ▼ -4.1% · 262.6 → 251.9 · as of 2026-09-10
NeutralThe U.S. Economy
Jason Calacanis predicts to Sacks that New Jersey's AG and NYC Mayor Mamdani will win their lawsuits against Amazon's delivery-subcontractor model.
Landami and New Jersey are going to win these lawsuits. I predict it now.
BearishAi Market
Self-declared prediction: named eight/nine-figure customers defect to open-source models. EVENT: will.
And I think, and I'll make this prediction here, that you're going to see some of the major customers of Anthropic and major customers of OpenAI. I'm talking about the eight and nine figure customers, people spending 50 million, 100 million a year. They're leaving. They're going to be leaving because they don't trust those companies to not steal the application layer and to compete with them. 11 Labs, Figma, lovable. They're all going to leave and they're all going to take Kimmy.
BullishAI, Jobs & Productivity
'if we were to look at the tests that were created to define artificial general intelligence... we passed all of those. These were tests that were created 30 or 40 years ago. We need a new set of tests right now' @30:31; guest half-agrees: 'there are definitely places where we did achieve it' @31:03.
“I mean, these things, we're kind of there on AGI, don't you think? Like we've kind of achieved it. We just haven't deployed it.”
BullishStock Picks
Jason cites Mark Gurman's report that the coming M7 Ultra could support 1.5TB RAM, letting Opus-class local models run on a Mac Studio, putting downward pressure on Claude/OpenAI and letting Apple 'run the table on AI.'
“I think Apple is a screaming buy right now. And that's not financial advice.”
Apple since this was said: ▼ -2.1% · 333.7 → 326.6 · as of 2026-09-10
BearishThe AI Trade
After describing his own token costs dropping 95% on open-source models
“everybody's going to learn how to drop the price by 95%.”
Nasdaq since this was said: ▼ -0.8% · 26,282 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
BearishAI, Jobs & Productivity
Jason Calacanis tells All-In that big-tech layoffs (Cloudflare, Meta) are now genuinely AI-driven, not just post-bloat trimming.
I think we have to recognize that the layoffs that are occurring in big tech and in a lot of these places are not just the bloating issue
BullishInflation
Jason Calacanis tells All-In that elevated oil from the Iran war (week 12) is driving US inflation sharply higher.
so wars never get resolved quickly. That's one thing we've learned in our lifetimes. Oil is driving inflation massively higher.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +3.2% · 96.60 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
BullishStock Picks
Jason Calacanis tells All-In that the future is local models on powerful desktop hardware and Apple is his stock pick for the next year.
I think the future of this is gonna be local models running on extraordinary desktop hardware. And if you have employees on this level of hardware running these models local, like I have started to do, they become 10 times more valuable than the employees not running it. I think Apple is my choice for the next year.
Apple since this was said: ▲ +8.8% · 300.2 → 326.6 · as of 2026-09-10
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Before you trust the call, check the record.
We write down what public figures predict, in their exact words, and check the result when the deadline arrives. Every line links to its source. How we score · Corrections · The scoreboard · The data
© 2026 Pundit Rumble · independent and unaffiliated · updated every market morning · not investment advice.
We write down what public figures predict, in their exact words, and check the result when the deadline arrives. Every line links to its source. How we score · Corrections · The scoreboard · The data
© 2026 Pundit Rumble · independent and unaffiliated · updated every market morning · not investment advice.