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Where they stand
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Frames the K-shaped read: 'in the K-shaped paradigm, the high end is pretty strong selectively' @0:27, driven by 'the wealth effect and stock market performance globally' @0:33, while 'middle and low income has been under pressure' @0:38 from food, energy and healthcare inflation and is 'cutting back on discretionary spending' @0:55.
“the consumer is sentimentally weak but fundamentally strong. So consumer sentiment is something to watch.”
Walmart is his named hot pick: 'So Costco and Walmart have been key ideas in this K-shaped paradigm' @1:39; AI evidence: Sparky assistant used by 'as many as half of them mobile app users' with 'average order sizes over 30% higher' @2:40, plus share gains with 'higher household income consumers' @3:09 and 'as we think about AI, first-party data is so important and the Walmart Plus membership flywheel and ecosystem will be increasingly important' @3:31.
“And as you think about Walmart as a tech company, digital advertising is fueling outsized growth as this is growing 20% plus and it comes at very high margin.”
Answering whether the premium multiple still has room to run: 'Renewal rates are very high at 91 to 92 percent' @4:38 and 'traffic has been exceptional as well at plus four to six percent. That's very distinguished from a sector that's been tougher' @4:45.
“But Costco is delivering on outstanding growth, double-digit growth, and even better growth on their e-commerce division with lots of good things on the horizon, including global growth”
His third named pick ('Richmont' = Richemont): 'jewelry is really working' @6:36, helped by gold - 'Richmont's done a good job not overly raising prices and gold's prices have been rising faster' @6:43 - while 'What's been softer is handbags' @6:55 and 'China's been tougher, but China's been getting better' @7:01.
“bottom line on Richmont, the hard luxury story, the jewelry, the watches, the power brands of Van Cleef and Cartier really working here to distinguish the growth.”
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