1 still on the clock. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything
else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Since they said it
6 directional calls with a price to read (0 bullish, 6 bearish). 1 week later, with the call in 3 of 5; 1 month later, with the call in 1 of 4. Prices as of 2026-09-10. Three fixed windows, the same for every call, always shown together: one week, one month, three months after the first close that followed the tape. What the market did, not a score: a call can have a different horizon, and a view with no number or deadline is never graded here.
Nasdaq from 2026-05-27 to 2026-09-10 · ▲ bullish · ▼ bearish · dot = the close that day
Date
Market
Call
What was said
1 week
1 month
3 months
2026-09-09
anchor: next close
US long-term Treasuries (US 30-yr yield)
Bearish
That is why long-term treasury yields are so high right now. Investors simply don't believe that fiscal responsibility is something we take seriously at all.
“they have said that they're gonna be profitable by 2030. But when we put all these estimates together, what we find is that actually, no, they won't be cashflow positive. They will be losing about $165 billion a year.”
“Dell stock surged as much as 8% yesterday, not because of any material information or any news related to the company, but instead because the president pumped it”
Written down and dated. Not judged until the deadline arrives.
Said Jun 10, 2026 · resolves Dec 11, 2026
“As soon as it hits the market, SpaceX stock will immediately explode 25%. However, my other prediction is that within six months, probably sooner, SpaceX stock will be cut in half. Why? Because the valuation makes no sense whatsoever.” Restated and re-endorsed on tape Jul 16, 2026 (“Almost two for two, we'll see”).
Ed Elson (Prof G Markets host, own monologue) says long-term Treasury yields are high because investors do not believe the US takes fiscal responsibility seriously
That is why long-term treasury yields are so high right now. Investors simply don't believe that fiscal responsibility is something we take seriously at all.
Elson says America's debt problem ($40T debt, $1.25T interest) is at a tipping point and will probably never be taken seriously
America's debt problem is reaching a tipping point. It is worse than ever before. And if we continue to not take it seriously today, then I think the conclusion is quite obvious. We probably never will.
Ed Elson (Prof G Markets) argues that a dozen OpenAI executive departures, a delayed IPO and mounting losses say 'nothing good' about a stock market that has become a bet on OpenAI, though he is not recommending selling.
bailing on OpenAI say about the stock market? And the answer is probably nothing good.
Anthropic is reportedly scheduling investor meetings for a listing as soon as October (@8:04, @16:29: Supposedly that listing's gonna come in October, which is very soon), while OpenAI is tabling theirs, and DeepSeek is preparing its own IPO. Ed reframes the race: Now the question is, will DeepSeek get out before open AI? @17:27. Kalsi is whisper's rendering of Kalshi.
“It's clear that Anthropic is going to win that race. In fact, if we look on Kalsi, the odds that they will announce an IPO before 2027 are up to 74%.”
Scenario math combining hardware shutdown, an 80 percent price cut, and eMarketer's 90 percent ad-revenue miss. He does not predict bankruptcy: I think the more likely scenario is that there will have to be some sort of massive restructuring, some sort of M&A event. Probably it gets sold to a larger AI company @37:43. Biggest worry: if I were an investor in OpenAI, it would be the China problem. It would just be the pricing @38:26.
“they have said that they're gonna be profitable by 2030. But when we put all these estimates together, what we find is that actually, no, they won't be cashflow positive. They will be losing about $165 billion a year.”
Offered as the one sector not levered to the AI trade: I'll give you one sector he says stands outside the AI trade and 'hasn't been getting love' @62:03, and I think that is a sector that has not infused AI at all yet. And perhaps maybe they will, at which point you will start to see some real returns @62:12.
“It was one of my picks at the beginning of the year. I'm gonna stick to it. It's the healthcare sector.”
Re-up of his earlier call: I predicted that SpaceX would get a 25% pop on the first day of trading. That happened. And then I said it would get cut in half. We're down to 40% down from its highs @64:19. Catalyst cited: lockup expirations, We're about to see a ton of supply come online @64:40.
“So I'm just gonna hold to the prediction. It's gonna get cut in half and I could easily seeing it trading below $100 a share.”
He replays his June 10 on-air prediction ('here is my prediction for what will happen tomorrow... SpaceX stock will immediately explode 25%' @2:01) and scores himself 'Almost two for two, we'll see' @2:20 as SpaceX hits an all-time low of $132.75, down 40% from peak. Reaffirmation on Jul 16 of the Jun 10 call; the six-month clock runs from ~Jun 11 IPO.
“my other prediction is that within six months, probably sooner, SpaceX stock will be cut in half. Why? Because the valuation makes no sense whatsoever.”
Solo outro on the June CPI drop to 3.5 percent: the decline was driven by June's oil selloff on ceasefire hopes now reversed, with Brent back to $85, up 20 percent from June levels: it's good in so far as it's a temporary sigh of relief, but it's bad in so far as it is a temporary sigh of relief @28:52. Earlier to Zandi @13:05: I tend to err on the side of the inflation problem is more of a problem because I'm personally very worried about ... the Iran situation.
“This is most likely a blip in the long story of the Iran war, the war that many had said was coming to an end, but that many must now admit is only just beginning.”
Solo segment on Trump reinstating the Strait of Hormuz blockade plus a 20% cargo toll. He does the arithmetic: at $83 Brent 'the new price would be $100 a barrel' @24:41, against inflation 'already up to 4.2% and rising' @24:48, and calls the Iran intervention 'a full-blown disaster' @25:35.
“Because the more he screws this up, the worse inflation will get, which means the more likely interest rates will go up. And therefore, the more likely stocks will go down.”
Trump told Americans on live TV to buy a Dell computer; disclosures show he bought nearly $1M of Dell last year, Elson says
“Dell stock surged as much as 8% yesterday, not because of any material information or any news related to the company, but instead because the president pumped it”
“the best way to increase your stock price in America today isn't to improve your product or to sell more goods and services. It is to have your stock anointed by the high priest of American markets, aka the president.”
Elson tells Isaac that Zuckerberg is spending heavily on AI data centers and is the worst of the hyperscalers at communicating how it will earn a return.
he's doing probably the worst job of all the hyperscalers in communicating