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First call on the ledger
1 still on the clock. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything
else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
On the clock
Written down and dated. Not judged until the deadline arrives.
Said Jun 10, 2026 · resolves Dec 11, 2026
“As soon as it hits the market, SpaceX stock will immediately explode 25%. However, my other prediction is that within six months, probably sooner, SpaceX stock will be cut in half. Why? Because the valuation makes no sense whatsoever.” Restated and re-endorsed on tape Jul 16, 2026 (“Almost two for two, we'll see”).
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
On FIFA selling 20 percent of Forward Enterprise at ~20B valuation; calls it financial hijacking.
This is the beginning of the end of football as we know it. And I say that as a lifelong football fan, but don't take it from me.
default insurance on Oracle, SpaceX, Google, Amazon, Nvidia
“credit default swap prices have hit record highs in recent weeks, Oracle, SpaceX, Google, Amazon recently, Nvidia”
his concentration point before the guest. host narration of a cited stat
“Nine of the 12 biggest contributors to the S&P 500's return were Semiconductor stocks”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +5.8% · 7,316 → 7,742 · as of 2026-08-05
Nikkei Asia investigation of five tech giants' SPV debt
“1.65 trillion dollars in debt that doesn't show up on their balance sheets”
Anthropic is reportedly scheduling investor meetings for a listing as soon as October (@8:04, @16:29: Supposedly that listing's gonna come in October, which is very soon), while OpenAI is tabling theirs, and DeepSeek is preparing its own IPO. Ed reframes the race: Now the question is, will DeepSeek get out before open AI? @17:27. Kalsi is whisper's rendering of Kalshi.
“It's clear that Anthropic is going to win that race. In fact, if we look on Kalsi, the odds that they will announce an IPO before 2027 are up to 74%.”
Scenario math combining hardware shutdown, an 80 percent price cut, and eMarketer's 90 percent ad-revenue miss. He does not predict bankruptcy: I think the more likely scenario is that there will have to be some sort of massive restructuring, some sort of M&A event. Probably it gets sold to a larger AI company @37:43. Biggest worry: if I were an investor in OpenAI, it would be the China problem. It would just be the pricing @38:26.
“they have said that they're gonna be profitable by 2030. But when we put all these estimates together, what we find is that actually, no, they won't be cashflow positive. They will be losing about $165 billion a year.”
Nasdaq since this was said: ▲ +3.7% · 25,508 → 26,456 · as of 2026-08-05
Offered as the one sector not levered to the AI trade: I'll give you one sector he says stands outside the AI trade and 'hasn't been getting love' @62:03, and I think that is a sector that has not infused AI at all yet. And perhaps maybe they will, at which point you will start to see some real returns @62:12.
“It was one of my picks at the beginning of the year. I'm gonna stick to it. It's the healthcare sector.”
Re-up of his earlier call: I predicted that SpaceX would get a 25% pop on the first day of trading. That happened. And then I said it would get cut in half. We're down to 40% down from its highs @64:19. Catalyst cited: lockup expirations, We're about to see a ton of supply come online @64:40.
“So I'm just gonna hold to the prediction. It's gonna get cut in half and I could easily seeing it trading below $100 a share.”
He replays his June 10 on-air prediction ('here is my prediction for what will happen tomorrow... SpaceX stock will immediately explode 25%' @2:01) and scores himself 'Almost two for two, we'll see' @2:20 as SpaceX hits an all-time low of $132.75, down 40% from peak. Reaffirmation on Jul 16 of the Jun 10 call; the six-month clock runs from ~Jun 11 IPO.
“my other prediction is that within six months, probably sooner, SpaceX stock will be cut in half. Why? Because the valuation makes no sense whatsoever.”
Solo outro on the June CPI drop to 3.5 percent: the decline was driven by June's oil selloff on ceasefire hopes now reversed, with Brent back to $85, up 20 percent from June levels: it's good in so far as it's a temporary sigh of relief, but it's bad in so far as it is a temporary sigh of relief @28:52. Earlier to Zandi @13:05: I tend to err on the side of the inflation problem is more of a problem because I'm personally very worried about ... the Iran situation.
“This is most likely a blip in the long story of the Iran war, the war that many had said was coming to an end, but that many must now admit is only just beginning.”
Solo segment on Trump reinstating the Strait of Hormuz blockade plus a 20% cargo toll. He does the arithmetic: at $83 Brent 'the new price would be $100 a barrel' @24:41, against inflation 'already up to 4.2% and rising' @24:48, and calls the Iran intervention 'a full-blown disaster' @25:35.
“Because the more he screws this up, the worse inflation will get, which means the more likely interest rates will go up. And therefore, the more likely stocks will go down.”
Trump told Americans on live TV to buy a Dell computer; disclosures show he bought nearly $1M of Dell last year, Elson says
“Dell stock surged as much as 8% yesterday, not because of any material information or any news related to the company, but instead because the president pumped it”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +2.2% · 7,575 → 7,742 · as of 2026-08-05
His 'kingmaker economy' thesis
“the best way to increase your stock price in America today isn't to improve your product or to sell more goods and services. It is to have your stock anointed by the high priest of American markets, aka the president.”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +2.2% · 7,575 → 7,742 · as of 2026-08-05
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