Oil & Gas

…prediction about oil. Listen to what he told us. The only thing that seems like truth is the price of crude itself. And look at it, $68 a barrel. It's only about, you know, $8 or $9 ahead of where it was before this conflict started. So to me, the market is saying this thing is 98% done and to the general's point, that last 2% could be consequential if something flares up again. So there still should be a bit of a risk premium in crude. However, I think in the middle of next year, crude's going to be at about 45 bucks a barrel. And I think we're already starting to see the reasons why. UAE has increased production. OPEC then increases production to keep their market share. What do you make of that, Kenny? Listen, I'm in the same campus, Jimmy, right? I think oil is going lower. I think, you know, we're going to see the low 60s fairly soon. 45 might be aggressive next year, but I got to kind of think about how that's all playing out. But I definitely think the path of least resistance is down and not up. And so I fully suspect that, you know, the country's going to benefit really because we're going to see oil prices, like I said, get out into the low 60s, which is where they were right prior to the invasion, right ? Where they go beyond that is going to depend on how much this production gets ramped up, how much UAE wants to join. Are they going to let Iran really start selling not much more oil? How much more supply is coming to the market? So, yes, I think Jimmy's right. I'm not sure it's 45, but I certainly think it's lower from here. Not to speak for Ryan Payne, but I do want to bring him into the conversation…From: this video · 3 claims mined from it

…Once the AI bubble has burst, I'm telling you the US economy is going to hit a break and go into the recession, I would argue. And even a little tiny hint that, you know, the catback story is over, I'm telling you, Gnostics will be down 20% like in no time. There's no doubt in my mind, the US got its ass kicked, in Iran. To me, shocking, as an American, I'm ashamed. Trump decided to essentially concede defeat to the Chinese. This was actually the first proxy war between the United States and China. That if Iran got this far, it had a lot to do with China. I think oil will start hitting higher in about a week's time. I'm pleased to welcome back to the show , David Wu, CEO and founder of David Wu Unbound. On the agenda today, the unwinding of the tech trade, semiconductors fell dramatically this week, especially overseas in the Korea KOSPI Index. Meanwhile, we'll talk about the latest jobs numbers that came out and how markets reacted to a softer than expected jobs number. Also, we'll be talking about the fragile Middle East ceasefire and what's currently going on and whether or not WTI can stay low, we're relatively low at around $70, or we'll start shooting up anytime soon . David, welcome back to the show, good to see you. - Thanks for having me, Mike. - Right now, we have a situation where…From: this video · 6 claims mined from it

…broadening real shift or short lived real shift. Emerging markets or U.S. markets. Emerging markets. Equal weight or market cap. Equal weight. Small caps or large caps. Small caps. More upside in the second half. The Dow or NASDAQ. Dow. Russell or S&P 500. Russell. AI hardware or software. Software. Industrials or tech industri als staples or consumer discretionary discretionary financials or health care. Both. Financials. Real estate or private credit. Real estate. Bigger risk. Geopolitics or inflation inflation. One word to describe the U.S. economy. Res ilient. Straight of her move is resolved by your end or ongoing risk. Resolved. Oil by your end . Higher or lower than 70. Lower. One word for the second half. Productive S& P 500 price target by your end. Eight thousand. Brian Levitt the speediest this or that I think that we've ever had. You certainly are the champion there. That's Brian Levitt Chief Global Market Strategist Evan Ves co. Thank you so much. Thank you. If you enjoyed this street talk check out our full interview with Gareth Soloway. He explains why he expects an over 20 percent pullback for the S&P 500 by your end. He has a fifty six hundred price target.…From: this video · 3 claims mined from it

…vessels crossing the strait on average every day. And then, of course, you've got the Iranian-U.S. talks, which are on pause right now because Tehran is holding a funeral for its former supreme leader. Kenny, I want to get your reaction because we had James Yorio on with us in the 6 a.m. hour. We asked him about oil and his prediction about oil. Listen to what he told us. The only thing that seems like truth is the price of crude itself. And look at it, $68 a barrel. It's only about, you know, $8 or $9 ahead of where it was before this conflict started. So to me, the market is saying this thing is 98% done and to the general's point, that last 2% could be consequential if something flares up again. So there still should be a bit of a risk premium in crude. However, I think in the middle of next year, crude's going to be at about 45 bucks a barrel. And I think we're already starting to see the reasons why. UAE has increased production. OPEC then increases production to keep their market share. What do you make of that, Kenny? Listen, I'm in the same campus, Jimmy, right? I think oil is going lower. I think, you know, we're going to see the low 60s fairly soon. 45 might be aggressive next year, but I got to kind of think about how that's all playing out. But I definitely think the path of least resistance is down and not up. And so I fully suspect that, you know, the country's going to benefit really because we're going to see oil prices, like I said, get out into the low 60s, which is where they were right prior to the invasion, right…From: this video · 3 claims mined from it

…Are they going to let Iran really start selling not much more oil? How much more supply is coming to the market? So, yes, I think Jimmy's right. I'm not sure it's 45, but I certainly think it's lower from here. Not to speak for Ryan Payne, but I do want to bring him into the conversation . He and I, he had the same reaction, but you know, Ryan, the journal writes this morning a sudden glut of oil threatens to weaken Iran's hand and talk. So the supply is out there. Yeah, it absolutely is. And you got to think about there's a lot of making up for lost profits, right? If you're Iran right now, if you're OPEC plus, like there's a lot of oil you want to get to the market because you have those revenues to replace. And also you have the UAE, which is not an OPEC plus anymore. They're going to be doing their, you know, their own decisions when it comes to oil production. So I think that's going to ramp up as well. So I think, you know, to Ken's point here, oil glut in the short term, I can see it dropping to low 60s, $45 a barrel might be a little polyannish. And I also think that because like global growth is going up. So oil demand should go up with that. Also, oil security is going to be a problem if you're Japan, do you want all your oil coming from the Strait of Hormuz or 80, 90% so you may be rerouting some of that. And oil companies as well got burnt during fracking when oil prices were too low, made no money. So there's going to be a lot of, I would say profits over production that 'll probably keep a floor under oil prices. And I'm with you, Ken, I think it's closer to $60 a barrel. I don't think it's 45. I mean, I wish it was, but I don't think that's where it's going. Yeah, no, but no, but 60 would be the 60s on 100, to be clear, Kenny, I want to look at yields with you really fast because…From: this video · 3 claims mined from it

…need for the data center world, for grid improvements, for electricity. That all means a lot more use of fossil fuels, of course, coal is being used a lot more now. When nuclear is coming back, small modular reactors, but the big thing is going to be natural gas and of course crude oil. People talk about demand destruction. We can go into that. I don't agree with that at all. I think it's sophisticated Chinese commodity buyers didn't want to pay $ 110 for crude, so they backed off less like they do in any commodity, cocoa or any of the others when they're high and they're back buying again now that we're $68. So this cycle can go into the 2030s. We're going to see new nominal all time highs for the price of crude before this is over. And I think near term we're in the bott oming phase negotiations on and off in Qatar right now where Switzerland, 65 to 66 is probably the low. Stocks are very cheap. We've had 15, 20% corrections in many of the energy stocks and there's barg ains everywhere. Canada is another big energy producer. We're the fourth largest in the world. The United States- No one talks about it. With oil and natural gas, then you go to Saudi Arabia, then you go to Russia, and then you go to Canada. 6.1 million barrels a day, we're the fourth in the world and we have massive reserves. We've had political problems with a prior government.…From: this video · 3 claims mined from it

…reserves and the ground. I think we're going to be getting back to that 90 or more in the next three to five years. And again, if you figure a company's reserve value goes up by that commodity deck, if you have growing production, that's how you get your three, five, 10 baggers in the energy stock market. And I think that where we are today, there's a lot of five baggers that I have on the list that we cover. Conservative stocks may only go up double, but some of the entrepreneurial names could be five or 10 baggers. Well, do you look at NatGas as well as oil? Henry Hub NatGas is currently around $ 325, give or take, if you sense. Do you have a similarly bullish outlook for the next two or three years on Nat Gas? I think that NatGas, in terms of commodity demand globally into the next five or 10 years, has a better opportunity than oil does. If you look at the growth of LNG, the announcements and the waiting for FID on the Gulf Coast, we're talking potentially a doubling of the LNG export capacity. Europe doesn't have gas of their own, and so they're going to need more. Asia, countries, South Korea, Japan, China is going to need more. We've got LNG Canada, which is 2BCF a day. But if you look at the FID and the projects in line, we could be six to eight PCF by 2030 or so. But that's where the big demand is going to be as a percent. Remember, we produce 18, 19 BCF in Canada, so you add 6BCF on top of that.…From: this video · 3 claims mined from it

…attention is shifting to longer-term issues like Canadian pipeline capacity. Albert, of course, now unveiled that proposal for a new West Coast export pipeline that could reshape Canada's energy outlook. Joining us now is Eric Nottle, partner and senior portfolio manager at Nine Point Partners. Eric, thanks as always for joining us. You bet. Good to be with you. Let's start with the Middle East, with the Strait of Hormuz. It looks like it's reopened somewhat normal. Oil prices have dropped. We were talking a month ago about how oil prices were high. Now we're talking maybe, are they too low to some people? I think so. And I really think it's a sentiment challenge, and we really have to reflect on where things stand now. Global onshore oil inventories are at their lowest levels on record. That's despite the biggest release in history from strategic stockpiles. The biggest surprise, I would say, has been the behavior of China. If we look at the beginning of the war, let's call it February, March, there are imports of drop by about three and a half million barrels per day. In June alone, they're down almost five million barrels per day. And so it's just a massive, massive drop. That's resulted in 320 million barrels of forfeited imports. And that's equal to about a quarter of all of the shut-in production from Middle East, because Middle East, we've lost roughly 1.2 billion barrels. And so I think the market is overly bearish now. We're looking at exports and confusing that with production. You mentioned the opener, the strait…From: this video · 4 claims mined from it

…low to some people? I think so. And I really think it's a sentiment challenge, and we really have to reflect on where things stand now. Global onshore oil inventories are at their lowest levels on record. That's despite the biggest release in history from strategic stockpiles. The biggest surprise, I would say, has been the behavior of China. If we look at the beginning of the war, let's call it February, March, there are imports of drop by about three and a half million barrels per day. In June alone, they're down almost five million barrels per day. And so it's just a massive, massive drop. That's resulted in 320 million barrels of forfeited imports. And that's equal to about a quarter of all of the shut-in production from Middle East, because Middle East, we've lost roughly 1.2 billion barrels. And so I think the market is overly bearish now. We're looking at exports and confusing that with production. You mentioned the opener, the strait being open. I checked satellite data last night, 10 ships, oil ships, entered into the stra it. Normal activity is 40. And so the biggest, there's two challenges now, or two things that I'm watching. One is, when does China return to the market? Their drop in imports do not represent demand destruction. I think it's been an intentional act to help offset what was going to be a very , very significant price spike and the impact that that would have had on global economies and therefore Chinese consumers. The second thing I'm watching is still shut-in production. We are not back to normal.…From: this video · 4 claims mined from it

…We haven't even been able to assess what is the productive capacity challenges in countries like Iraq, which have the crappiest reservoirs combined with a very, very bureaucratic entities that have not been able to respond properly. They're down 2.4 million barrels per day as we speak. And we think there'll be a long-term impact to their production. And so simply put, we think the market is too bearish. We were anticipating a oil price sell- off when the strait eventually began to open. We just didn't think it would be from 90 to 68. We thought we would be in the 120s to 140s. When you look at where should oil price be, forget what I think, I'll reference energy aspects, which is a globally respected energy analytical firm. They think that Brent should be at roughly $130 to $140 today, given where inventories stand. Wow. And we're not even close to that. But China, you say they feel like they pull back and are sitting. What happens when they come back in and come back in with a vengeance? That is the one huge thing that we're all watching and waiting for. And so if Chinese demand truly did not fall, when I say demand, road traffic, petrochemicals, et cetera, there's no indicators of meaningful drop in demand. And so the oils had to come from somewhere. And a real challenge with the oil market is we have visible stocks, things that we can see with satellites. They pull up the data every morning, but there's a large amount of invisible stocks.…From: this video · 4 claims mined from it

…right now. The board has recently hired advisors. I think they're assessing our proposal. And we'll expect to hear back from the company at this point. But it took them, I would say, a few weeks to get set up. So everyone in the room is trying to read the next 12 months, rates, geop olitics, AI, cap excite goal that won't quit. When you look at the market today, what 's the biggest disconnect that you can share between price and reality? I think people-- it's never a comfortable feeling to be in the middle of a war, right? So we have the Iran situation. We have the questions about the impact on energy prices, inflation, what the impact will be on the Federal Reserve. All these things are really related to the outcome of this war. I think our house view is this war is not a many months situation. I think in the weeks, maybe it's a four to six weeks resolution. I think once the war is resolved, there will be a lot more focus on the fundamental drivers of the economy. So you're feeling overall positive on the market sentiment right now? Yes. I think once the cloud of uncertainty lifts, I think there are a lot of very powerful forces driving the economy and ultimately the stock market. And companies are reporting very good earnings. We're still in the middle of earnings. Right. That is true. If you had to put all of your capital into a single asset class for the next decade, excluding your own funds, where would it go and why? It would go in equities. Inequities? I would say liquidity, long term growth…From: this video · 2 claims mined from it

…carries forward in a very measured way. And that the demand drop that came out of China as they cut refinery runs and transitioned away from some of their more fossil fuel intensive petrochemical activities, isn't going to rebound. And to me, that's just a little bit pessimistic. If you look at the headlines today, China has already said they're gonna roll back some of their product export bans. Immediately that is going to pull forward a little bit more crude demand. And I think that we're overestimating the downside just as we had overestimated the upside at the height of the conflict. - So where do you see prices ending the end of this year, Rebecca? - So I think we can look at the end of the year and I can kind of see Brent Ti, I can see 75 Ti, 80 Brent. And I just think that we're, again, we don't necessarily see this even distribution of flows resumed through to 85, what I think is price is 85% of flows resumed by the end of July is what's priced. I think that might get pushed out and we don't necessarily see, we are seeing this immediate reaction as ships have transited and Iranian sanctions have been waived. But if that gets pulled back, I don't think we see the acceleration of inventory builds that the market's anticipating. So I'm not drastically above the strip. I'm kind of looking 75, 80 Brent Ti.…From: this video · 2 claims mined from it

…Yeah, it's a very important question that you ask, because when we think about just the restocking of what's been drawn, by our math, that's roughly 450,000 barrels per day of new demand every day for the next three years just to restock. And we've seen news coming out of countries like India, where I think they're adding a new SPR of 50 million barrels. So there's really a renewed focus on security of supply. It really portends well for Canada. So I think that, again, the market just wants to be bearish right now. It fits the narrative for the broader NASDAQ stocks hitting all time highs, et cetera. Everybody's going to sit in here, and the energy crisis that we are in is not over. The straight over moves is not open. Traffic has not returned to normal. We're down 8.6 million barrels per day of production, and we're hurtling towards the wall unless things radically improve soon. Okay. We have to wrap it up there, Eric, but thank you as always. My pleasure. Eric Nettl, partner and senior portfolio manager at Nine Point Partners.…From: this video · 4 claims mined from it

…every cycle since the 1970s. Thanks very much for having me, Morgan. I've been in the business since the early 70s. I started out as a merchandising analyst and on the side I was watching the energy side which the firm I was working for didn't have an analyst on. So I just got intrigued by what was going on with OPEC and of course then we had that great cycle from '74 to '81. I did a lot of historical analysis of super cycles and the commodity cycles and you can go back hundreds of years and thousands of years, even precious metals. There's data going back that far and so I became very intrigued about it and so my career from '74 on became focused on energy and I believe we started in my career, the third energy and commodity super cycle. The first one was '74 to '81 I think we all know, subbed to $3 to $36 and of course there were 15 times more move in the Canadian energy index during that time and the big name is Dome Petroleum. Then we had Paul Volcker shutting down inflation and then we had tough trading markets till 1999. In that first cycle, the buyer at the margin was Japan, the Toyotas and the D atsuns, Panasonics and the Sonys. In the '99 to 2008 cycle, it was China. They were producing formula barrels a day consuming three and a half,…From: this video · 3 claims mined from it

…So that's also feeding into this higher gasoline price relative to the crude oil price you're seeing. Yeah, on that subject, I mean, gas prices are still about a dollar per gallon higher than they were when the war in Iran began. So why are those two prices not falling exactly in tandem? Right. I like to use the analogy that the crude oil is the flour, the gasoline is the cake. They got to make that flour into cake. And we just don't have the bakeries going full tilt right now to be able to bring that product to market. So those prices are staying elevated. We're seeing terrific demand here in the United States for gasoline. We got a report this morning that showed really robust gasoline demand. This is the peak, though. This week, the next week, this is the peak gasoline demand period here in the U.S. It'll fall off from here. I suspect by Labor Day you will see a considerable price drop at the pump as well here in the U.S. I don't know about the President's aspirational 250 a gallon, but certainly down around 325 is a realistic target for that time period. The war has also illustrated how much leverage Iran really has over global oil prices. Do you think its ability to control the Strait of Hormuz will create a more volatile energy market for the foreseeable future? In the near term, absolutely. They've shown their willingness to lash out at ship traffic through the strait.…From: this video · 1 claim mined from it

…pricing that the Fed might be too tight. So stay tuned for that. We're on guard. So next chart. Here is the oil price on a year-over- year basis. It's based on a three-month moving average. And so you can see right now on that basis, we're into the 50s on a year- over-year basis. But look at the X. The X shows you where we are on a year-over-year basis, point to point, this time last year versus today. And most of that inflation is out, and as Hormuz opens up more and more, we think the oil price could drop precipitously, especially as transportation is going electric. And it's not just robo-taxis, it's trucks, it's drones. So at the margin, we think the case for oil is diminishing, meaning the bull case for oil is diminishing quite significantly. And we would not be surprised to see a general deflationary world for oil in the next few years. So on this chart, you can see the commodity price index.…From: this video · 4 claims mined from it

…kind of closer to that $70 level in TI, maybe 65. I tend to think having read the headlines again this morning that India says they're going to increase their strategic petroleum reserves. China has some rebuilding of stockpiles to do. India also wants to diversify away from Middle Eastern crude. I tend to think that's a scenario we're anticipating this massive surplus , but what it's going to be is a rebuild in the market might not reflect quite as loose as that number kind of headline number would say. So I'm not thinking that we see this dramatic 60s, 50s crude scenario next year, which I know some analysts are pointing to. I tend to think we hover around this kind of 70, 75 level. - What has the OFAC waivers done for this market? The fact of the matter is a running crude could flow freely at market price. - This has been a huge factor, not just the OFAC, but the fact that you can transact in dollars, I think has opened up a lot of Iranian crude to the market. Now, what I haven't seen is a tremendous amount of buying outside of China of Iranian crude, but what that does essentially is make Iranian crude available to places like India, which has significantly reduced their imports due to the sanctions and makes it a more competitive barrel…From: this video · 2 claims mined from it