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Direct rebuttal to Bessent's deal optimism, taped with Andrew Ross Sorkin at Aspen; Reuters is simultaneously reporting the U.S. has used up virtually all its long-range precision missiles.
Even if there is a deal, it's not clear that it's a sustainable deal. We've been through this before, at least our geopolitical team is skeptical that any deal will be enforced. I think we're going to be in a muddle for a while. There are two ways out of the muddle. The first is that the Chinese intervene and really pressure the Iranians for a real deal. The Chinese have shown no inclination to do that. And the second is a significant escalation beyond just air, even ground forces, which we have shown no inclination to do.
WTI crude since this was said: ▼ -1.5% · 75.77 → 74.66 · as of 2026-08-05
From Aspen: don't trust the deal headlines; in a muddle for a while. EVENT: wont (enforced deal), hedged.
Even if there is a deal, it's not clear that it's a sustainable deal. We've been through this before. At least our geopolitical team is skeptical that any deal will be enforced. I think we're going to be in a muddle for a while. They're two ways out of the muddle. The first is that the Chinese intervene and really pressure the Iranians for a real deal. The Chinese have shown no inclination to do that. And the second is a significant escalation beyond just air, even ground forces, which we have shown no inclination to do.
WTI crude since this was said: ▼ -1.5% · 75.77 → 74.66 · as of 2026-08-05
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