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Matt Smith
Kpler (Director of Commodity Research)
First call on the ledger
No calls filed yet. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything
else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
Hormuz reopening timeline
“we're pushing that reopening into next year”
WTI crude since this was said: ▼ -16.4% · 89.31 → 74.66 · as of 2026-08-05
what the strait carries. factual throughput; do not misread as current flow
“15 million barrels a day of crude that leaves through there”
WTI crude since this was said: ▼ -16.4% · 89.31 → 74.66 · as of 2026-08-05
recent price move. time-anchored tape fact, goes stale
“brent has risen by about 40 percent”
WTI crude since this was said: ▼ -16.4% · 89.31 → 74.66 · as of 2026-08-05
product prices under strain. STANCE corrected bear->bull: worsening product prices is the directional payload; crack-inflated product prices, not crude
“diesel is 180 a barrel here gasoline is 140 dollars a barrel”
Amid nine days of US strikes in Iran and oil closing higher, Smith says tankers are being targeted, three routes have slowed, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz (a fifth of global oil supply) has 'ground to a halt.'
“So for all intents and purposes, the Strait is basically closed.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▼ -10.3% · 83.23 → 74.66 · as of 2026-08-05
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