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Rebecca Babin
CIBC Private Wealth
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Rebecca Babin (CIBC Private Wealth) says oil stays in its $80-90 range unless Hormuz flows fall below 5 mb/d, the Houthis hit the Red Sea, or China imports jump back toward 11 mb/d; normalization of Hormuz plus non-OPEC supply would break it lower.
if we start to see that number materially decline below five million barrels a day due to increase kinetic military action that will break us out of the range
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +22.6% · 81.25 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Rebecca Babin (CIBC Private Wealth) says today's oil selling is a buyers' strike, not panic, and conviction buying only appears in the low $70s, well below current prices.
so I actually think the threshold for where buyers step in is just so much lower than where we're at right now it's kind of in that low 70s range where there's some conviction
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +22.6% · 81.25 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Rebecca Babin says China's buying, stockpile draws and product exports are the most important short-term swing factor for oil, having kept prices below $100.
I think in the short term China is the most important factor
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +22.6% · 81.25 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Rebecca Babin is worried about refinery outages: 96% utilization and deferred maintenance mean something will break, with 20%+ of global refining already lost and no buffer.
I'm pretty worried I mean there there's we're running at 96% refinery utilization at this point almost every refiner has pushed back maintenance to capture the crack spreads that are extremely elevated
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +22.6% · 81.25 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Rebecca Babin guesses retail gasoline will be about $4.00-4.30 and diesel above $5 (possibly $5.50-6 in a bad case) around early November, not as low as the administration wants.
if I had to put a range on it I would kind of put it in the four to four twenty five four thirty range of where where we see gasoline prices and I think diesel a little bit more of a wild card remains above five
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +22.6% · 81.25 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Rebecca Babin says traders' reluctance to go long oil into weekends continues: buyers will skip a 5% rally rather than risk a 10% drop until there is a breakthrough.
buyers are going to say you know what I'm willing to miss this five percent move higher because I do not want to lose ten percent of the downside
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +22.6% · 81.25 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
“I can kind of see Brent Ti, I can see 75 Ti, 80 Brent”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +45.4% · 68.55 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
“I tend to think we hover around this kind of 70, 75 level” (crude); notes “right now estimates have a surplus of about 4 million barrels a day for 2027”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +43.4% · 69.50 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
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