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Francisco Blanch
Bank of America
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Francisco Blanch (BofA) tells CNBC Hormuz traffic is 5-10 ships a day versus about 140 pre-war, so the energy market cannot normalize while restrictions persist.
We are seeing just about five to ten ships a day. We need to see about 140 to be back at pre-war levels.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +12.7% · 82.13 → 92.54 · as of 2026-09-08
Francisco Blanch tells CNBC ship flow through Hormuz must rise roughly tenfold (80-100 a day) to normalize oil prices and prevent an escalation into winter.
we need to see roughly ten times the flow of ships to normalize prices and prevent an escalation into the winter.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +12.7% · 82.13 → 92.54 · as of 2026-09-08
Francisco Blanch (BofA) tells CNBC his base case is Brent at $70-80 assuming a US-Iran resolution, with prices creeping higher into winter if there is none.
expecting oil to be in the 70 to 80 dollar barrel range for Brent on the assumption that we were going to see some resolution. But if we don't, we're going to keep creeping higher into the winter.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +12.7% · 82.13 → 92.54 · as of 2026-09-08
Blanch tells CNBC only 5-10 ships a day transit Hormuz versus ~140 pre-war.
we are seeing just about five to ten ships a day. We need to see about 140 to be back at pre-war levels.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +12.7% · 82.13 → 92.54 · as of 2026-09-08
Blanch tells CNBC Hormuz ship flows must rise roughly tenfold to normalize oil prices and avoid an escalation into winter.
we need to see roughly ten times the flow of ships to normalize prices and prevent an escalation into the winter
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +12.7% · 82.13 → 92.54 · as of 2026-09-08
BullEurope
hedged · 2026-08-10
Blanch tells CNBC that without a US-Iran agreement there will be an energy escalation that hits Europe harder than the US via gas and fuel prices.
So to the extent we don't come to an agreement, there is going to be an escalation. I think that's pretty accurate. And I think it's going to hit Europe probably more so than the U.S. because of the exposure to particularly gas
Blanch tells CNBC European gas is now about $20/MMBtu amid the heat wave.
And we're seeing that in the price of gas, which is now $20 in the NBTU.
Blanch tells CNBC diesel crack spreads are a record $80-85/bbl, exceeding the price of WTI.
We're seeing $80, $85 a barrel. So the price of diesel alone, just the differential is higher than the price of WTI.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +12.7% · 82.13 → 92.54 · as of 2026-09-08
Francisco Blanch of Bank of America tells CNBC Hormuz transits are 5-10 ships a day versus ~140 pre-war.
We are seeing just about 5 to 10 ships a day. We need to see about 140 to be back at pre-war levels.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +12.7% · 82.13 → 92.54 · as of 2026-09-08
Francisco Blanch of Bank of America tells CNBC oil prices will not normalize, and winter escalation risk remains, until Hormuz ship flow rises roughly tenfold.
So again, we need to see roughly 10 times the flow of ships to normalize prices and prevent an escalation into the winter.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +12.7% · 82.13 → 92.54 · as of 2026-09-08
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