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12 directional calls with a price to read (8 bullish, 4 bearish). 1 week later, with the call in 6 of 9; 1 month later, with the call in 6 of 9. Prices as of 2026-09-11. Three fixed windows, the same for every call, always shown together: one week, one month, three months after the first close that followed the tape. What the market did, not a score: a call can have a different horizon, and a view with no number or deadline is never graded here.
WTI crude from 2026-06-10 to 2026-09-11 · ▲ bullish · ▼ bearish · dot = the close that day
Date
Market
Call
What was said
1 week
1 month
3 months
2026-09-10
from 99.65
WTI crude
Bullish (Leaning)
Actually, I put a bigger weight on China coming back to the market because you can just see the bid across Asia.
Because again, if you can't express your point of view about where rates should go, then you're going to sell the currency. So weaker dollar, and this was happening in the markets yesterday, is shooting up the price of a lot of commodities.
If you were trying to sneak a tanker past the Straits of Hormuz right now, would you take one that's laden with gasoline and diesel or one laden with crude? You're going to take the one laden with crude because the one with gasoline is a sitting time bomb.
“you have diesel, I think in New York, harbors like $130 or $140 a barrel, because we are now witnessing the probability of running into real shortages of products.”
“Oh, I'm extremely bullish on all of the precious. And the core of it really is the debasement, meaning that fiat currencies have only been around since 1971.”
“AI compute, it's a cyclical commodity. And the point I say too, is you look at the price of AI compute, it's actually going down now, which is an indication you may have overbuilt already, but it's not going high.”
“they pay dividends. And this is why I don't understand is you're buying these hyperscalers that pay, they have 0% free cashflow versus these oil majors at 15.5.”
“war machine 1.0, meaning artificial muscle, tanks and, you know, all the oil driven stuff. That stuff can't hold a candle to the AI drone war kit 2.0.”
And I would argue this super cycle started back in October 2020. And if you just take a weighted average of one of these indices it's just a line going straight up over the last six years
the hyperscalers they are now cyclical industries like commodities their old economy now and they're spending just at the same rate all those miners and all those oil guys did back in 2014
energy as a share of the S&P. It runs around 3 percent. And by the way the core of the super cycle argument is that that share needs to be closer to 10 to 15
Jeff Currie tells the CNBC anchor the oil spike owes more to China returning to the market (bid across Asia, Shanghai crude over 100) than to Middle East headlines.
Actually, I put a bigger weight on China coming back to the market because you can just see the bid across Asia.
Jeff Currie tells the anchor this oil rally differs from earlier ones because the market now treats it as non-transient, visible in energy equities and long-dated oil prices, a read he shares.
But I think the one thing that's really different about this rally is that people are starting to go, "This is not transient." And you're seeing it in the equities, the long dated oil prices.
Jeff Currie tells the anchor the rise in the 10-year yield and commodities is the 'revenge of the old economy': higher structural inflation from years of under-investment in hard-asset supply.
And what it means, we're dealing with higher structural inflation because of years of under-investment in the ability to supply and deliver hard assets.
Jeff Currie tells the anchor the broad commodity rally is the super cycle he has called, commodities being the decade's best-performing asset class despite being ignored.
This is the super cycle we've been talking about. I want to emphasize, commodities are the best-performing asset class this decade, even though nobody trades them.
Jeff Currie tells the anchor, adopting Robin Brooks's framing, that investors who cannot express a rates view sell the dollar, and that weaker dollar is pushing commodity prices up alongside physical scarcity.
Because again, if you can't express your point of view about where rates should go, then you're going to sell the currency. So weaker dollar, and this was happening in the markets yesterday, is shooting up the price of a lot of commodities.
Jeff Currie (Carlyle) says crude leaks out of Hormuz but gasoline and diesel do not because a product tanker is a sitting time bomb, so refined product supply is the tighter constraint
If you were trying to sneak a tanker past the Straits of Hormuz right now, would you take one that's laden with gasoline and diesel or one laden with crude? You're going to take the one laden with crude because the one with gasoline is a sitting time bomb.
'the situation in energy, I would argue, is pretty dire' (@4:49): Hormuz lost again, Ukraine strikes took out 'more than 50% of the refining capacity out of Russia' (@4:35), inventory 'insurance policies' exhausted, and 'there is no strategic petroleum reserve for products' (@10:08). He calls market calm 'the abundance illusion' (@6:56).
“you have diesel, I think in New York, harbors like $130 or $140 a barrel, because we are now witnessing the probability of running into real shortages of products.”
Calls it 'the revenge of the old economy' (@8:00) and the 'halo' trade - hard assets, local operations (@8:20); mining capex down 35% from peak (@10:57); 'all of this is the de-globalization theme in process, which just leads to higher commodity prices' (@8:50). Conditional growth warning: 'you don't have the products, you don't have the oil, it will hit growth' (@10:00).
“You know, I was arguing before this ever happened, we were going to enter a new area where all commodity prices, whether it's oil, metals, agriculture, and the rest of them are going to be structurally higher.”
Unhedged structural bull case: debasement + central bank gold accumulation
“Oh, I'm extremely bullish on all of the precious. And the core of it really is the debasement, meaning that fiat currencies have only been around since 1971.”
MEANING GUARD: '7x' is his HISTORICAL supercycle average, not a stated forward target; $10,000 gold / $300 silver are 'could see' levels, deliberately hedged; the video title's 'to 7X' is the channel's packaging
“I don't like to get into the numbers game, but, you know, I could see 10,000 gold and $300 silver. I don't think that's an unrealistic. By the way, and people that had put out these numbers, like, 'Oh my God, he's crazy.' Every super cycle we've been through in the one in the 70s and one in the 2000s, the price of these commodities go up by 7x on average.”
Falsifiable structural claim: a recession only delays the supercycle ~2 years (cites 08-09 losing 24 months)
“'Cause I can tell you demand collapsing or something like that won't derail these stories. It really has to come from the supply side. If demand collapsed, you just push it out a couple of years.”
Commodities lens on AI: falling compute price signals possible overbuild
“AI compute, it's a cyclical commodity. And the point I say too, is you look at the price of AI compute, it's actually going down now, which is an indication you may have overbuilt already, but it's not going high.”
Relative-value claim (0% vs 15.5 FCF yield); BOOK FLAG: he is launching his own oil company
“they pay dividends. And this is why I don't understand is you're buying these hyperscalers that pay, they have 0% free cashflow versus these oil majors at 15.5.”
Named-winner structural call; he adds China gets there first (@23:22)
“The first person who can build out their entire power grid with zero marginal costs, meaning just renewables, batteries, and nuclear power wins. And the Americans and Europeans are so asleep at the wheel, they're arguing about this stuff like it has something to do with the environment.”
MEANING GUARD: his 'oil's dead' is the LONG-RUN structural story (electrified drone warfare), fully consistent with his near-term oil bullishness; quoting it against his oil book without this context is a misread
“war machine 1.0, meaning artificial muscle, tanks and, you know, all the oil driven stuff. That stuff can't hold a candle to the AI drone war kit 2.0.”
Jeff Currie tells the Wealthion host we are in a commodity super cycle that began in October 2020, with weighted commodity indices trending straight up for six years.
And I would argue this super cycle started back in October 2020. And if you just take a weighted average of one of these indices it's just a line going straight up over the last six years
Jeff Currie says the hyperscalers have become cyclical old-economy industries spending at the same rate miners and oil producers did at the 2014 peak, implying the same over-investment risk.
the hyperscalers they are now cyclical industries like commodities their old economy now and they're spending just at the same rate all those miners and all those oil guys did back in 2014
Jeff Currie says energy's roughly 3% weight in the S&P 500 needs to rise to 10-15%, with the share taken out of the AI sector.
energy as a share of the S&P. It runs around 3 percent. And by the way the core of the super cycle argument is that that share needs to be closer to 10 to 15
Jeff Currie says an institutional investor should hold around 3% in commodities given their volatility, turning it up in super cycles; model outputs of 20-30% are too high.
Now if I were looking at if I were telling you as an institutional investor I'd say somewhere around 3 percent
Jeff Currie says he is extremely bullish on all precious metals on the debasement thesis: fiat currency since 1971 is a short experiment and central-bank reserves are becoming gold-backed as gold rises.