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Ryan Payne

Payne Capital Management
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Bear leaning · 2026-07-06
“oil glut in the short term, I can see it dropping to low 60s, $45 a barrel might be a little polyannish.”
Ryan Payne · Payne Capital Management · YouTube ↗
…Are they going to let Iran really start selling not much more oil? How much more supply is coming to the market? So, yes, I think Jimmy's right. I'm not sure it's 45, but I certainly think it's lower from here. Not to speak for Ryan Payne, but I do want to bring him into the conversation . He and I, he had the same reaction, but you know, Ryan, the journal writes this morning a sudden glut of oil threatens to weaken Iran's hand and talk. So the supply is out there. Yeah, it absolutely is. And you got to think about there's a lot of making up for lost profits, right? If you're Iran right now, if you're OPEC plus, like there's a lot of oil you want to get to the market because you have those revenues to replace. And also you have the UAE, which is not an OPEC plus anymore. They're going to be doing their, you know, their own decisions when it comes to oil production. So I think that's going to ramp up as well. So I think, you know, to Ken's point here, oil glut in the short term, I can see it dropping to low 60s, $45 a barrel might be a little polyannish. And I also think that because like global growth is going up. So oil demand should go up with that. Also, oil security is going to be a problem if you're Japan, do you want all your oil coming from the Strait of Hormuz or 80, 90% so you may be rerouting some of that. And oil companies as well got burnt during fracking when oil prices were too low, made no money. So there's going to be a lot of, I would say profits over production that 'll probably keep a floor under oil prices. And I'm with you, Ken, I think it's closer to $60 a barrel. I don't think it's 45. I mean, I wish it was, but I don't think that's where it's going. Yeah, no, but no, but 60 would be the 60s on 100, to be clear, Kenny, I want to look at yields with you really fast because…From: this video · 3 claims mined from it
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