Inflation
22 bullish · 24 bearish · 2 dovish · 1 hold · 45 neutral · exact words, dated and sourced
+54Does inflation resettle or reignite? The number that decides most of the other debates.
The count, last 30 days: 9 bullish, 3 bearish. The tape leans bullish. A count, not a verdict.
The tape
Jul 27
Aug 03
Aug 10
Aug 24
Aug 31
Sep 07
bullishbearishclaims filed per week
What the people who move markets are saying about this, in their own words. These are views on the record, not scored bets: when a call here grows a number and a deadline, it moves to the scoreboard. Newest first.
Bullish
Jeff Currie tells the anchor the rise in the 10-year yield and commodities is the 'revenge of the old economy': higher structural inflation from years of under-investment in hard-asset supply.
And what it means, we're dealing with higher structural inflation because of years of under-investment in the ability to supply and deliver hard assets.
Neutral
Michael Reid tells the anchor energy prices and tariffs showing up in PPI will pass through into CPI.
That's the number one concern. Let's not forget we still have tariffs on the table, which are adding pressure. That's showing up in PPI, and ultimately, this is gonna pass through from PPI into CPI.
Neutral
Michael Reid tells the anchor services inflation will not fall much further, so any disinflation has to come from goods, which are instead heating up.
We think services, it's come down, but you're not gonna get much deflation there. Historically, you look back, you're just not gonna get help. And so you need goods to move lower.
Bearish
McGlone tells Lin his deflation thesis still holds, delayed and extended by the oil spike and now likely more extreme, as in 2008.
Delayed, extended, and it'll be more extreme now. So it's similar to 2008.
Neutral
Tom Lee thinks there might be demonstrable progress on inflation by the end of 2026.
And I think that you know by the end of the year there might be demonstrable progress on inflation
Neutral
Tom Lee expects Friday's August core CPI to come in around 2.3% year over year, well below core PCE at 3.3%.
When Friday comes around and we get the August number it's more likely to drop to two point three percent year over year core
Neutral
Cranfield says supply shocks will keep inflation expectations higher for longer, feeding into the long end of Treasury and other bond curves
It's going to keep inflation expectations higher for longer. And that all feeds back into the long end of the treasury and other bond curves as well.
Neutral
Kristina Hooper (Man Group) says the selloff is a reality check that the Iran war is lasting and US inflation will be higher for longer
I think it's a long time coming, but markets had to really believe the war in Iran would last longer than just a few months. If there's just a reality check, coursing through the stock market right now, inflation is going to be higher for longer.
Bullish
Peter Schiff says inflation is the bigger risk to investors and a recession would only bring more inflation because the government stimulates by printing.
And in fact, if there's a recession, then that's going to be even more inflation.
Bearish
Moore says inflation is entirely oil-driven and will fall well below the 2% target once oil comes down.
As soon as you start seeing that oil price come down, we're going to be well below the two percent inflation target.
Bullish
Todd Horwitz says official inflation of 3.4% is wrong and true US inflation is north of 10%.
I mean, the numbers that we get in inflation are inaccurate enough as it is because there's no way we're at 3.4%. We're probably somewhere north of 10% in overall inflation.
Bullish
Todd Horwitz says the Fed/Treasury bond-buyback intervention is money printing that will make inflation spike higher and hurt consumers.
This what the Fed is doing here is going to end up hurting the average consumer because it's going to make inflation spike higher.
Neutral
Trinh Nguyen (Natixis) tells Bloomberg that markets underprice sustained geopolitical pressure on supply chains, a decade-long cost theme that will keep term premium elevated even as near-term inflation looks contained.
And I think what the market is not pricing for is the sustained geopolitical pressure that's going to continue to put pressure on supply chains.
Neutral
David Sacks tells Calacanis and Baker data centers do not raise power prices; rising electricity prices in blue states are due to decarbonization and green regulation.
The real reason why electricity prices are rising in blue states is because of decarbonization.
David Sacks · Craft Ventures / All-In Podcast · https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kVzYGVJ8zUk @21:02 ↗Neutral
Megan Horneman (Verdence Capital Advisors) tells the anchor that 63 straight months of inflation above the Fed's target prove current policy is not working and inflation is still way too high.
I think we've had 63 months now of the inflation not at the Fed's target. Whatever they're doing has not been working.
Neutral
Charlie Bobrinskoy (Ariel Investments) tells CNBC that with PPI up 4.7% year over year and record federal deficits with no end in sight, inflation will not fall to the Fed's 2% target.
And frankly, we're running the biggest deficits we've ever run. There is no end in sight to federal spending. So we think inflation is not gonna go down to the 2% that the Fed wants.
Neutral
David Friedberg tells Rahm Emanuel that over 30 years housing (5%+), education (6%+) and healthcare (5.5%) have inflated far faster than the 2.5% average because government subsidizes them, while unsubsidized sectors deflated.
The average rate of inflation in the last 30 years been two and a half percent. But housing's gone up by at least 5% a year on average compounding education over 6% healthcare five and a half percent.
Bullish
Clem Chambers says the US will need far more M2 money supply to fund onshoring, reindustrialization and the AI buildout, and that new money will lift all assets.
America is going to need way, way more M2 money supply to do this onshoring, to do this AI build out
Bullish
Clem Chambers predicts US inflation running at 5-7% (possibly up to 10%) as money is printed to fund reindustrialization and the AI buildout; no date given.
And that will mean there'll be five to I don't know, five to 10 rate of inflation coming down the pike. I think it would be five to seven.
Neutral
Mark Zandi (Moody's Analytics) calls July CPI benign and in line but says higher oil and gasoline mean August will look worse and inflation remains well above target.
at face value, I'd say pretty benign. I think if we continue to get these kinds of reads, that's a good sign.
Neutral
Jan Hatzius (Goldman Sachs) tells Fox Business he expects July CPI, out the next morning (2026-08-13), to print +0.05% headline and +0.19% core month-on-month, in line with or slightly below consensus.
So we think 0.05% on the headline, 0.19 on the core index, both of which are in line with or a little bit lower than the consensus.
Bearish
Jan Hatzius (Goldman Sachs) tells Fox Business that excessive inflation remains the problem but he expects it to look somewhat better going into 2027, with 'pretty solid' confidence in the downtrend.
That problem is still there, but my expectation would be that as we go into 2027, it's going to look somewhat better.
Neutral
Mark Cranfield (Bloomberg MLIV) tells the Asia Trade anchors that the July US CPI print will produce high volatility in stocks either way, and that it is the biggest near-term market factor.
Whichever way, we're going to get some pretty high volatility, either positive or negative, once those numbers drop tonight in New York.
Neutral
Dibo tells Lacqua US inflation should moderate sequentially in H2 2026 versus H1.
we think that sequentially inflation should moderate in the second half relative to the strong pace that we saw in the first half.
Neutral
Aditya Bhave (BofA Securities) tells CNBC that of 3.3% core PCE, ~40bp is tariffs, ~20bp Iran/oil, and ~20bp will be revised away in September, leaving ~2.5% even in the best case.
3.3 percent core PC inflation as of June. We think about 40 basis points. If that was tariffs, 20 basis points was Iran, and about 20 basis points will get revised away in September.
Neutral
Aditya Bhave (BofA Securities) tells CNBC that even if everything goes right core PCE is still 2.5%, a big overshoot with the labor market in equilibrium, so policy should be restrictive.
but if everything goes right, you're still at 2.5. That's a pretty big overshoot when the labor market is looking basically in equilibrium
Neutral
Steve Liesman (CNBC) tells viewers July's 2.9% gasoline drop will not last and gasoline comes back in the August CPI released in September.
We'll see if that lasts. I don't think it will. I think it's got to come back in the month of August when we get that date in September.
Neutral
Jack Lew tells CNBC July CPI shows it will still take a while for inflation to get back to 2%.
It paints a picture that's very challenging because it shows that it's still going to take a little while to get down to the 2%.
Bullish
Steve Liesman (CNBC) says the 2.9% July drop in gasoline CPI will not last and will reverse in the August CPI print.
2.9 percent month a month decline in gasoline. We'll see if that lasts. I don't think it will. I think it's got to come back in the month of August
Bullish
Michael Strain (AEI) says July data imply core PCE running at a 3.3% annual rate, up considerably from a year ago.
The data we have this morning is consistent with core PCE coming in at a 3.3% annual rate. That is up considerably from this time last year.
Bullish
Jack Lew (former Treasury Secretary) says July CPI paints a challenging picture and it will take a while for inflation to get down to 2%.
It paints a picture that's very challenging in terms of the future direction because it shows that it's still going to take a little while to get down to the 2%.
Neutral
Thomas Hayes (Great Hill Capital) tells David Lin that insurance premiums and owners' equivalent rent, two sticky post-COVID inflation components, are softening, which supports contained inflation expectations and consumer confidence.
The insurance premiums and the insurance industry is softening against all consensus that it ever would. And owners equivalent rent and rents are stabilizing and coming down.
Bearish
Sunil Kumar of Spinneys tells Bloomberg that war-driven food cost inflation in the UAE will only fade once the disruption ends and conditions normalise.
I think that it will go away when the disruption and everybody is clear and everything becomes normal.
Neutral
Joe Lavorgna expects tomorrow's PPI to stay above 4% and notes core PCE is running well over 3%, so inflation is too high to justify cuts and supports a hike.
your PPI the next day is probably going to remain over 4%. And the core PC deflator, which is the Fed's preferred metric, is still running well over 3%.
Neutral
Yardeni tells Lake unit labor cost growth of 1.4% means underlying labor-market inflation is a disinflationary force.
And the unit labor basis is down to 1.4 percent. I mean, it's very, very low.
Neutral
Yardeni tells Lake this week's CPI (nowcast ~0.29% m/m) will not be a shock in either direction.
I think they're looking for a number like point zero point two nine or something like that. I don't think it's going to be a shocker either to the upside or the downside.
Bearish
Jeremy Siegel (Wharton) says workers are losing to inflation: July wages rose only 3.2% against CPI expected at 3.4%.
so what does that mean workers are losing to inflation
Neutral
Mark Zandi of Moody's tells CNBC US inflation has peaked and will come back in, assuming the Iran war does not escalate and oil stays near $85.
inflation has peaked. I mean, I'm assuming the Iran war is not going to go up the rails here and that oil stays somewhere around $85.
Neutral
Mark Zandi of Moody's tells CNBC unit labor costs, the key inflation driver, are flat because wage growth is decelerating.
And unit labor costs are going nowhere because wage growth is decelerating.
Neutral
Lindsey Piegza (Stifel) tells CNBC that weak jobs data pushed the Fed toward neutral and this week's July CPI may show a second consecutive month of annual cooling.
I do think the employment picture continued to push that pendulum back to a more neutral position and this week's inflation data on an annual basis we may see the second consecutive month of cooling.
Neutral
Michael McKee tells Bloomberg co-host Nora that grocery price levels will not come back down in the near term; only a long run of low inflation with rising incomes helps.
Not in the near term, uh, you don't see prices go back down again, except for a few commodities.
Bullish
ARK ITK; unit labor costs near flat year-over-year, non-inflationary.
unit labor costs are very well behaved, almost a zero
Bearish
Same interview; inflation pressures will not subside quickly enough.
think the inflation pressures are not going to subside quickly enough, and I think the kid and
Bullish
From current 4-4.5 percent, led by diesel, jet fuel, chemicals, food. EVENT: will.
So I'm not optimistic with respect to price inflation. I think it's going to be high I actually think it's going to be higher.
Bearish
Rich Dad channel; money printing traps money in the monetary system, asset inflation favors the rich.
So every time they print money, the money gets trapped in what's called the monetary system.
Bearish
Rich Dad channel; printing makes the already-rich richer.
Guys like me get richer and richer.
Bullish
Energy-driven inflation comes down on the other side of the Iran war. EVENT: will, conditional.
The energy can will be volatile and but we'll get to the other side of the Iran war and you know it will come down last month we saw the the biggest drop in many years so you know we see how quickly the it responds to the energy prices.
Bearish
Predicts persistent inflation forcing hikes, citing war energy pressure and deficits.
you're going to have to raise rates to account for that inflation at some point. And then consumers are going to see three and four, you know, maybe more. God forbid, five or six. And I'll say one more thing, sorry. Inflation will be persistent.
Bearish
CPI to ~0 and crude near 40 next year, conditional on an S&P drop that sticks. EVENT: will, dated 2027.
I think inflation's peaked at 4.2%. That's CPI. I think crude oil's peaked at 120. And the key head thing I have in the headline for next year, I fully expect CPI can easily get to 0% and crude oil can get to near 40 on a normal cycle.
Neutral
backs Warsh's inflation-measurement task forces; trimmed-mean near 2.2
“the answer to that last question is pretty clearly, yes, there are better alternatives. So let's choose the best one we have”
Neutral
the Lucas-critique remark on inflation measures that fed the week's bond selloff; presser source event
“we might make them such that they're not very good measures or very good objectives”
Neutral
defending Warsh's first weeks with the 30-year at a 19-year high
“breakeven inflation so sort of traders expectation of inflation is at or below where it was at least after 10 years when he became chairman”
Neutral
intolerably high for five straight years
“Inflation is, you know, intolerably high”
Neutral
transitory is dead as a word, yet implicitly it is the dove case
“I don't think we're going to hear that word from any government official ever again, probably for another 50 years”
Bearish
PCE stuck above 3; memory-price capex feeding the inflationary system
“We have not been able here in the US to get the PCE indicator down below three in any meaningful way”
Neutral
the GDP price index shock, biggest since Q2 2022
“6.2 percent 6.2 percent. We're expecting a number around 4 percent”
Neutral
the timeline he sets
“five plus years of inflation above target cannot be cured in nine weeks”
Neutral
current inflation not policy-driven, per the former Fed governor. relative claim: more likely transitory THAN post-pandemic, not a flat declaration
“It's much more likely to be transitory. It's much more likely to be temporary this time because it's not driven by policy”
Bearish
energy vs tariffs as inflation source. contrastive sentence: explicitly less worried about tariffs per se
“I'm much more worried about the inflationary impulse that is coming out of the energy complex right now”
Bearish
structural inflation regime
“doesn't lend itself to the Fed, meeting its 2% target”
Bearish
track record on target
“the Fed has failed to achieve its 2% target for over five years”
Bearish
US inflation direction from here
“I think inflation, as measured by the CPI, or any way you wanna measure it, is headed higher.”
Bearish
asked how high inflation could go. answer to the host question; the double-digit floor is unconditional
“Oh, double digits for sure.”
Bullish
Asked when the crude premium shows up in CPI and PPI after last week's softer prints: 'when we have a very large energy shock it translates into CP CPI and PPI between three to six months later' @17:44; he doubts the last soft print and adds 'I think it will show up by by the by Q4 unless there's a resolution of the conflict that is very quick' @18:12.
“But we should expect its appearance again before the end of the year sometime between September and December on the fourth quarter.”
Bullish
With nine straight days of US strikes on Iran, diesel above $5.10/gal and gasoline breaching $4, Kennedy relays Bloomberg Economics' updated view; earlier he warned oil-market 'buffers' (US SPR, China's buying pause) are 'wearing thin.'
“this most recent flare-up has lasted long enough that we do see higher inflation, most likely by the end of the year. And if things devolve, we could actually breach 5 percent.”
Neutral
Asked how Kevin Warsh should think about inflation. 'the one qualification is oil prices. And regular is above four today and diesel is above five... I look at them every single day' (@3:45); tariff inflation 'behind us', most oil inflation 'behind us', AI-related inflation 'I can live with' given coming productivity gains (@3:56-4:07).
“I'm not into the we need three rate hikes. I don't think we're gonna get any rate hikes. I think the worst of the inflation is behind us.”
Bearish
He notes core CPI is 'really only 2.6% over the past 12 months' @3:15 despite the energy bump, and adds 'when the cessation of hostilities occurs in Iran, I'm expecting that inflation number to come way below the Fed target' @3:56, calling the 2% target 'silly' and endorsing zero inflation @4:17. Whisper once garbles Warsh as 'Kevin Washington' @3:25.
“I think Kevin Warsh is going to stabilize prices, bring inflation down to approximately zero over the next 10, 15 years.”
Neutral
Every inflation gauge but PCE core (median, trimmed mean, CPI core, sticky, 'true inflation') has come down. On the Warsh Fed: 'we've now taken the July rate hike to a 10% chance' @25:37 and 'if he was going to do it, I think July would be the time. I don't see him doing it in September, October.' @25:53: against market pricing of one hike before year-end. Calls falling hike odds 'a very big positive for the debasement trade, a very big positive for crypto.'
“I'm leaning towards the fact that the inflation side is a non-story for the rest of the year.”
Bullish
One-year inflation swaps price '2 percent, or even below 2 percent, for the next 12 months' @3:35 versus 3.5% running CPI. He cites lagged effects from fertilizer, freight and energy costs, and AI as 'almost a source of inflation because of the tremendous energy demand' @3:07. Hedges: 'along metals, stocks, mining stocks, tips, cash' plus hedged-equity strategies since Treasuries are 'not the perfect hedge' in an inflation shock @4:41-4:55.
“we're running at three-and-a-half percent CPI. So, we think the market might be under pricing this risk. We are hedging it.”
Bullish
'this increase in inflation volatility will lead to an increase in rate volatility, which means that the correlation between stocks and bonds have flipped positive. And we expect that to continue over the long run' @30:59-31:11 - her argument for why the classic 60/40 bond hedge is impaired and clients need alternatives.
“but this rolling inflation shocks is likely going to persist for the foreseeable future.”
Neutral
Day-one House testimony reaction to the first negative CPI print in six years; Bloomberg chyron: WARSH: NO 'MISSION ACCOMPLISHED' AFTER CPI; created a data task force to avoid cherry-picking
“There might be some that look at this morning's data and say oh mission accomplished”
Neutral
From the prepared House testimony aired on Bloomberg Brief; paired with 'no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation'
“The inflation surge of the last five years will be a thing of the past. The members of our committee have no tolerance”
Bearish
On the June CPI print of 3.5 percent (down from 4.2): I think underlying inflation is kind of three to three and a half percent somewhere in there, again, uncomfortably high @3:00. Direction: Yeah, I think we're directionally lower @5:55, conditional on oil staying around 80-85 dollars a barrel as the Iran war (whisper garbles it as the wrong word) stays on script; AI and immigration policy are juicing up inflation. This quote is teaser-duplicated in the cold open at 0:00; in-context occurrence filed.
“it's not going to come in fast. It's going to come in slow and sticky. And it might not be a couple three years before we get back to anything we all feel comfortable with.”
Bearish
Solo outro on the June CPI drop to 3.5 percent: the decline was driven by June's oil selloff on ceasefire hopes now reversed, with Brent back to $85, up 20 percent from June levels: it's good in so far as it's a temporary sigh of relief, but it's bad in so far as it is a temporary sigh of relief @28:52. Earlier to Zandi @13:05: I tend to err on the side of the inflation problem is more of a problem because I'm personally very worried about ... the Iran situation.
“This is most likely a blip in the long story of the Iran war, the war that many had said was coming to an end, but that many must now admit is only just beginning.”
Bullish
'There's a wonderful phrase that the CPI is the CP lie' @6:08; he invites listeners to price their own 2020-vs-today basket of goods and services @6:13 to see the gap.
“The government will tell you that the dollar is losing its purchasing power to the extent of two and a half percent a year. The real number for your family is eight.”
Bearish
Reacting to the new inflation report: 'the report was incredible. The inflation is way down' @0:21, contrasted with months of '9 and 10%' inflation under the prior administration @0:12. Aired the day June PPI fell more than expected after a cooler June CPI.
“Prices are way down. Prices are coming way down, and we're gonna bring 'em much lower.”
Bearish
Her data: average Brent $85 in June vs $78 to $81 so far in July, WTI $82 vs $73 to $75 @2:08, so July headline inflation may not rebound. She also flags consumer strain: 35% in a USAA survey now redeem credit-card rewards for groceries, 'I don't like seeing that' @4:07.
“but so far, again, that sort of gave me hope that we may not get that big spike. Maybe this is more than just one month, maybe this is more to come.”
Bullish
He praises the new Fed chair: 'Kevin Warsh was supposed to be President Trump's puppet' @7:00 but 'has been awesome in these hearings with Congress' @7:12, sedate and data-focused; 'The feds should recede' @7:58. Conditional on Trump resolving Iran and Hormuz to 'get oil flowing' @7:37.
“and Kevin Warsh can do his job, which we are very clear on what his job is and that is to get inflation down to 2%. We are gonna be in a very good spot.”
Neutral
Oval Office remarks after June CPI printed the first monthly decline in six years (same tape @14:46); pitched to the midterms camera: 'Remember that for the midterms'
“Prices are coming way down and we're going to bring them much lower yet.”
Neutral
Vice chair, House Foreign Affairs; asked whether the Iran war risks the president's own phrase 'economic catastrophe' via oil and gas; oil rose again the same day the blockade returned
“Last month, the inflation rate was actually down. It is likely to be up next month if we continue that long.”
Bearish
Solo segment on Trump reinstating the Strait of Hormuz blockade plus a 20% cargo toll. He does the arithmetic: at $83 Brent 'the new price would be $100 a barrel' @24:41, against inflation 'already up to 4.2% and rising' @24:48, and calls the Iran intervention 'a full-blown disaster' @25:35.
“Because the more he screws this up, the worse inflation will get, which means the more likely interest rates will go up. And therefore, the more likely stocks will go down.”
Neutral
Cut her inflation input on Iran de-escalation; cites RBC economists ~2.6% for 1Q27
“I pulled it down a little bit just when we got some of this de-escalation on the Iran war, we wanted to reflect sort of that improvement in the gas price backdrop. But I think our economists are maybe at 2.6% for 1Q.”
Neutral
Fresh restatement of his near-2%-in-12-18-months call (cross-ref POS-195, Jul 10); explicitly NOT by end of 2026
“Oh, I think we can. It's not gonna happen in the next quarter, it's not gonna happen by the end of the year. But I do think that within, let's say a year to 18 months, we can be pretty close.”
Neutral
This week's data docket (CPI, Warsh testimony, retail sales)
“I'm looking for this set of inflation numbers to say the peak of the inflation cycle.”
Bearish
“I just can't see how markets can stay at this high level if inflation is above target and rising again.”
Hold
“markets can live with core inflation, that's a percentage point above target.”
Bearish
Rick Rule believes the US dollar loses 75% of its purchasing power over the next 10 years as the US inflates away its obligations, as in the 1970s.
the U.S. dollar lost 75% of its purchasing power over 10 years, which is what I believe happens over the next 10 years. I believe it's happening as we speak.
Dovish
Headline inflation coming down substantially as oil/gas fall
Ed Yardeni · Yardeni Research · BloombergNeutral
Todd 'Bubba' Horwitz tells Kitco US inflation is much higher than the official figures admit, with the expected 4.2% CPI understating reality.
First of all, inflation that we have is much higher than they're willing to admit, right? 4.2 is well less than what it really is
Dovish
Inflation surprises much lower; Truflation ~1.3% vs CPI 2.8%
Cathie Wood · ARK Invest · ARK In The KnowBullish
Inflation is going up again, driven by energy costs
Kyla Scanlon · Author / commentator · InterviewBullish
Jason Calacanis tells All-In that elevated oil from the Iran war (week 12) is driving US inflation sharply higher.
so wars never get resolved quickly. That's one thing we've learned in our lifetimes. Oil is driving inflation massively higher.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +3.2% · 96.60 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Peter Schiff says Americans face much higher consumer prices and interest rates once the world stops wanting dollars.
So Americans are going to be looking at much, much higher consumer prices, much higher interest rates.
Bullish
Peter Schiff says commodity prices make it obvious US inflation has bottomed and is heading back up.
If you look at what's happening with commodity prices, it's obvious that inflation is bottomed and is headed back up.
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We write down what public figures predict, in their exact words, and check the result when the deadline arrives. Every line links to its source. How we score · Corrections · The scoreboard · The data
© 2026 Pundit Rumble · independent and unaffiliated · updated every market morning · not investment advice.
We write down what public figures predict, in their exact words, and check the result when the deadline arrives. Every line links to its source. How we score · Corrections · The scoreboard · The data
© 2026 Pundit Rumble · independent and unaffiliated · updated every market morning · not investment advice.