← Leaderboard
JF
Jason Furman
Harvard (former CEA chair)
First call on the ledger
No calls filed yet. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything
else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
the dissents show where the committee wants rates to go
“The dissents were the most important”
intolerably high for five straight years
“Inflation is, you know, intolerably high”
quantified tariff-inflation attribution
“tariffs, which probably have added half a point to a percentage point to the inflation rate”
transitory is dead as a word, yet implicitly it is the dove case
“I don't think we're going to hear that word from any government official ever again, probably for another 50 years”
that = an AI bubble burst dislodging the stable labor market
“I don't think there's any reason to expect that to happen anytime soon”
employment side in the best shape he can remember
“the Fed really just needs to worry about the one side of its mandate right now, which is inflation”
NeutralFed
leaning · 2026-07-31
a quieter Fed must act more; sees no willingness yet
“maybe it's going to actually need to move rates more aggressively”
NeutralFed
hedged · 2026-07-31
conditional warning: Fed credibility currently enormous and market inflation expectations tame; deficit on the credibility bank only if Warsh fails to put his money where his mouth is
“going into deficit on the credibility bank”
no multilateral AI regime; hope only for US-China convergence
“the idea that we have some global super regulator is to me just a pipe dream”
Follow Jason Furman
One short email when Jason puts a new call on the record, and when a verdict lands on one. Plain words, free.