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Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
The frontier edge shrinks to a smaller set of problems; cheap older models suffice for nearly everything.
I think we're going to find that using a cheap model that is six months old, one month year old, maybe even two years old, will have way, way more enough power for anything that we need in our day to day lives. In some sense, the cutting edge is going to be about solving a smaller and smaller set of problems while the follow-on stuff will be way more than capable enough for almost everything else.
Predicts no multilateral AI regulatory framework materializes. EVENT: wont.
I just don't think there's going to be a multilateral approach. What we could hope for is a little bit of convergence, where the different countries are talking to each other, and I think it's really important that the United States and China are talking to each other about this topic.
the dissents show where the committee wants rates to go
“The dissents were the most important”
intolerably high for five straight years
“Inflation is, you know, intolerably high”
BearishTariffs
leaning · 2026-07-31
quantified tariff-inflation attribution
“tariffs, which probably have added half a point to a percentage point to the inflation rate”
transitory is dead as a word, yet implicitly it is the dove case
“I don't think we're going to hear that word from any government official ever again, probably for another 50 years”
that = an AI bubble burst dislodging the stable labor market
“I don't think there's any reason to expect that to happen anytime soon”
Nasdaq since this was said: ▲ +2.8% · 25,374 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
employment side in the best shape he can remember
“the Fed really just needs to worry about the one side of its mandate right now, which is inflation”
NeutralFed
leaning · 2026-07-31
a quieter Fed must act more; sees no willingness yet
“maybe it's going to actually need to move rates more aggressively”
NeutralFed
hedged · 2026-07-31
conditional warning: Fed credibility currently enormous and market inflation expectations tame; deficit on the credibility bank only if Warsh fails to put his money where his mouth is
“going into deficit on the credibility bank”
no multilateral AI regime; hope only for US-China convergence
“the idea that we have some global super regulator is to me just a pipe dream”
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