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Mark Thornton
Mises Institute (senior fellow; Austrian economist) - org from title/public record, not stated on tape
First call on the ledger
No calls filed yet. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything
else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
With S&P and Dow at all-time highs; end-stage-bubble and blow-off-top read.
I think we're sort of the end stage of a very long and vast Bubble in the stock market, which has been enhanced by below market interest rates and now Basically interest rates are in real terms adjusted for inflation near zero. So we're seeing Over the last quarter or so a big blow-off top In stock
Skyscraper-curse framework vs $725B hyperscaler capex; direct rebuttal of the bear-thesis-is-garbage line. EVENT: will, undated.
so we have seen this cluster of building of data centers And we're going to eventually see a cluster of entrepreneurial errors When these data centers are not profitable
Based on a 10-year moving-average valuation. EVENT: will, dated 10-year horizon.
The net expected return in stocks over the next 10 years is zero or negative
BearFed
hedged · 2026-08-05
With 30Y above 5 percent for 27 sessions and $40T debt; expects QE targeting 10s and 30s. EVENT: will, hedged.
well, I think they're going to try to use financial repression and That means the Fed is going to come in that would mean if that's true If my guess is true, that would mean an expansion of quantitative easing and that means where the Fed directly purchases government bonds from the market to suppress interest rates
From current 4-4.5 percent, led by diesel, jet fuel, chemicals, food. EVENT: will.
So I'm not optimistic with respect to price inflation. I think it's going to be high I actually think it's going to be higher.
COLD-OPEN ONLY in this 12:39 cut - the 1927 line and 'I think the likelihood of a severe outcome is very high right now' @0:21 do not reappear in the body, which is excerpted from a longer interview. In-context corroboration in the body: 'the US is the most highly overvalued, highly leveraged' @8:47. The claim also headlines the video title.
“The stock market right now is more overvalued today than it has been over the last 150 years. The only period that was more overvalued than it is right now was 1927.”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +2.8% · 7,534 → 7,742 · as of 2026-08-05
Direct answer to Maggie Lake's 'Do you think gold has found a bottom here, or is there more downside ahead?' @3:54. Support: 'there's a stubbornness in terms of any kind of downward pressure on silver and gold prices' @4:03 and 'the smartest of people are reloading with more gold and silver like the Chinese are' @4:23. Follows the post-Warsh-nomination crash he calls 'a hit job on precious metals' @0:57. Teaser duplicate at 0:17.
“Well, there could be more downside ahead, but I think it looks like a bottom to me.”
Gold since this was said: ▲ +8.1% · 3,986 → 4,310 · as of 2026-08-05
The 'steering currents' are the dollar, interest rates and Fed-policy expectations that currently favor rate hikes. Timing: 'that's what I'm expecting over the next, I don't know, couple of months. It's been hard to time.' @7:47. He expects the Fed to push rates lower or compress real rates, flipping speculators back into gold and changing market sentiment.
“So I think those steering currents that speculators are paying attention to are going to be reversed. Instead of being against the gold price, it's going to be for the gold price”
Gold since this was said: ▲ +8.1% · 3,986 → 4,310 · as of 2026-08-05
Answering whether something must break for precious metals to catch a bid: 'the US is the most highly overvalued, highly leveraged' @8:47, and once cracks appear he expects 'a flow of funds from all of these other major marketplaces... into gold and silver, which right now are incredibly teeny' @9:23. Also notes miners are 'almost like advanced growth stocks right now' buying back shares and paying down debt @10:10.
“And then with higher interest rates, falling dollar, a ballooning deficit, all of those are going to combine to put real downward pressure on the stock markets, especially the elevated leverage portions of those of the stock market”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +2.8% · 7,534 → 7,742 · as of 2026-08-05
Full framing: 'what we're looking at moving forward as the global economy sinks into the next recession is that they're all going to be spending more money' @11:45 - all central banks are already 'expanding their money supplies as much as they think they can get away with' @11:39. His stated main thesis: 'more money in the economy means higher gold prices and higher silver prices' @11:26. Explicit hedge: 'I just can't really say when anything like that is going to actually play out' @12:06.
“they're going to all have to borrow more money and therefore print more money. So I think that is on the agenda.”
Gold since this was said: ▲ +8.1% · 3,986 → 4,310 · as of 2026-08-05
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