The S&P 500

…. You weren't really impressed with June that much in terms of the averages kind of stalling out, and you expect July to be better as val uations are more reasonable and sentiment is not crazy bullish. Does that sum things up? Yeah. I mean, in July, we're going to get Q2 earnings. Right. And in the first quarter, earnings came in way better than expected. And so the market's PE is actually lower now than it was in January by one point, one full turn. And I think second quarter earnings are going to surprise to the upside again. So the market's going to get cheaper again. And that means there's room for PE to expand. So I think July is going to be a stronger month for stocks. 8,000 is doable this year. Yes. The S&P. Yeah. Because 8,000 would be roughly 20 times 2027 earnings of 400. I think that's a low estimate. I think the PE multiple could be 22 or better. So that would be even 84, 80, 800 kind of would be the upside into your end. But I do think between now and year end , there should be something that might feel like a bear market too. Not in July, but maybe between August and October. Why not in July? Well, I think Joe cited that June wasn…From: this video · 2 claims mined from it

…starting to percolate there, and interest from clients starting to percolate as well. At some point, we'll deal with 2027 earnings growth expectations. We're not there yet. We're still sorting through 2026, but that's something to keep on your radar as well. And it feels like interest rate fears have eased back a little bit, but that's something also to keep on our radar. I know there's just a whole range of outcomes predicted around the street right now, some people looking for cuts, some people looking for hikes. But we do keep that hike risk on the radar. But Tom, with the price target, we try to be longer term. We've recast it this year from a December 31st number to a 12-month forward number. We update it once a month. We did a little bit later last month, and we probably should have. But we had a number of events to get through. And so we upped our target a little bit to 81.50. Healthy, not heroic. We still think that the earnings strength, the earnings tailwind, is offsetting pressures on the PE from the trickier rates and inflation environment. So no real change. What is the AI theme in your work these days? I guess we all started our own AI investing by just buying the chips, which is still a way to go, no doubt. But is there other ways to play AI that you and your team are thinking about? So I think it started out as sort of a Mag 7 type story. And then we saw in the earnings data that the AI trade was really sort of broadening out this year. And then the semis were front and center. And we were kind of at peak revisions there on earnings. You've had expensive valuation.…From: this video · 1 claim mined from it

…but I want to be able to protect myself in doing so. And then the second is I want the flexibility where there's an independent third party control plane that I use to get all these benefits so that I don't leak and cede my advantages away. And I think Alex is an incredible, smart, brilliant guy, and he completely nailed it. And I think he called out on its face the huge risk of this. So let me just give you this narrative in three tweets. The first one is I read this really interesting study from BCG and what they looked at was the return on capital employed or ROCE of various businesses. And this is what's incredible. The cost of capital has now with long term rates moved back to what its long run average is, which is around eight to 11 percent. What that means is like that is the actual cost that you would borrow money at effectively. The problem is that half of large U.S. companies now cannot deliver returns that exceed that. That is a really big problem. And then second, there's a further problem, which is that persistently low returns. So in the, you know, one, two, three, four, five percent is about one in seven companies all around the world. Okay. So why is this important to note? It means that being in business is complicated. It's hard. Not everything works all the time.…From: this video · 12 claims mined from it

…expansion globally. Fed was going to lower interest rates. Oil costs were low rates were low. It was a very nice backdrop. We ran into the war in Iran which disrupted things momentarily disrupted the broad ening out trade. Confident now that we 've seen oil prices come down significantly. In flation expectations down rates down that we've got a nice macro backdrop and the broadening of these markets should continue. Yeah the biggest story really so far has been this broadening that we've been seeing small caps having their best first half in decades . The Dow I think it's the best first half in five years. Do you expect that to be kind of a temporary broadening or is that is this a new phase of the bull market. I would categorize it as a new phase of the bull market. I mean we've always known that these parts of the market are cheaper. The question is do you have a catalyst for them to outperform. And so those catalysts which are better growth globally and some of that's fiscal stimulus in most parts of the world. Also declining energy prices is helpful. You 'd like to see some policy easing. I'm not sure we're going to get all the way there with the Fed but I think if they stay on hold that's enough of a catalyst. And I think one of the things that people underestimate is you've seen a lot of bidding up of the companies that are bringing us a market starting to think about some of the bigger beneficiaries of that. Smaller cap…From: this video · 3 claims mined from it

…divisions to focus on growth, all expected to be completed within a year. Joining us now to talk about markets and the macro story is Alianz's Chief Economic Advisor Wharton Professor and Gramercy Funds Management Chairman, Mohammad El-Arian. Mohammad, great to see you. Thanks for having me. Thank you so much for being here. So here we are at the beginning or let 's say the end of the first half, the beginning of the second half of the year, how do you see things? How would you assess markets and the macro story? So it's been a great second quarter. I think if we were here three months ago and we had suggested that NASDAQ would be up 20%, people say there's a war going on, what are you thinking? But that's the reality and it shows you the strength of the tech led innovation led economy that we're living in. Going forward, I'm not worried about fundamentals. I think fundamentals are strong. I'm not worried about valuations that have adjusted its technicals. And in particular, there's a tug of war going on right now between our ability to attract money from the rest of the world and this incredible condition to buy the dip versus a question of where will all these funds come from for all the needs that we have for our tech companies, for our government and everything else. So we're going to see the technicals play out, but fundamentals and val uations are in a really good place. You said that before, I mean, you've got lots of money that was flowing into America from the Middle East. I mean, the president likes to talk about the $18 trillion that he's…From: this video · 2 claims mined from it

…Great time to check in with Tom Lee, Head of Research at Fundstrat, Chief Investment Officer of Fundstrat Capital as well as the CNBC contributor . You weren't really impressed with June that much in terms of the averages kind of stalling out, and you expect July to be better as val uations are more reasonable and sentiment is not crazy bullish. Does that sum things up? Yeah. I mean, in July, we're going to get Q2 earnings. Right. And in the first quarter, earnings came in way better than expected. And so the market's PE is actually lower now than it was in January by one point, one full turn. And I think second quarter earnings are going to surprise to the upside again. So the market's going to get cheaper again. And that means there's room for PE to expand. So I think July is going to be a stronger month for stocks. 8,000 is doable this year. Yes. The S&P. Yeah. Because 8,000 would be roughly 20 times 2027 earnings of 400. I think that's a low estimate. I think the PE multiple could be 22 or better. So that would be even 84, 80, 800 kind of would be the upside into your end. But I do think between now and year end , there should be something that might…From: this video · 2 claims mined from it

…Let's bring in Stephanie Link, Chief Investment Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Hightower. Good morning. Also a CNBC contributor. Let's do it for the third time here, Stefan, and tell me whether it makes sense. Because, what's Forrest Gump saying? I 'm a lot of smart men. So 400 on the S&P for earnings in next year, 2027. If you take 20 times earnings, it's a round number. That's 8,000. Is that reasonable after the gains we 've already seen in the S&P? I think so, Joe, and I think it's because the economy is really healthy, led by the consumer, led by the AI revolution, and that's leading to a broadening out in the market into different sectors. Because it's not just technology that's going to benefit from AI and the revolution. It's a lot of other sectors are starting to do well. And in fact, last quarter, seven out of 11 sectors had double digit earnings growth, but technology took all the credit, right? So I think that we're going to continue to see a widening out of the market. I think you want to own tech, but you also want to own industrials, financial s, especially discretionary, with oil prices down 40% from the highs.…From: this video · 2 claims mined from it

…My next guest, Wall Street Legend, knows how to sell through choppy waters , which could be the case in the second half of the year. I want to bring in now Bob Dahl, Cross mark Global, their CEO and CIO. Bob, so I saw your note, you're calling this a high risk bull market. What makes it high risk? The high risk is the valuations are high. It has not mattered because earnings have been off the charts and the Fed has not been antagonistic. Second half of the year, my guest's earnings might exceed but nowhere near the amount they exceeded in the first half and the Fed may become a little antagonistic. That I think needs to be factored in. It's going to be harder in the second half than the first half. Oh, man. Okay. With that being said, are there adjustments that should be made to portfolios now? What are some of the things that people should have top of mind in terms of things just don't go as smoothly in the second half? You just have to make sure you've got companies with reasonable valuations,…From: this video · 1 claim mined from it

…Because you're right, fundamentals are quite good. Expectations are even higher in some cases. We think the market does go higher. But some choppiness, some pullbacks, some repricing risk, it all makes sense . But see, I ask you this every time, Tom , you're with me, because people, they hear you and they assume that you're always bullish, and directionally, you are, with the caveat this time of you still are expecting a meaningful pullback in stocks at some point before another significant ramp up into the end of the year. And you haven't changed that, have you? And I ask you every time. Yeah. And again, I think we're still in this up phase. So I think near term, I think we can be 77, 7,800 first. And then a 10% to 15% pullback, but for understandable reasons. Because the Fed is something the market 's trying to understand. And we've got an unlock of a major IPO coming. And there's cumulative shortages now in petroleum products that becomes a pricing risk later this year. But I do think the earnings momentum is very strong, and investors are still offsides. In fact, fund managers are having one of the worst years, actually in almost five years. This is one of the worst years for growth managers. And so I think they're going to buy that dip. Are we vulnerable to something like that? I think the pullback, I think Tom's right. But I think the pullback comes from a higher level, right? We're still looking at the fundamentals . We're still looking at credit.…From: this video · 1 claim mined from it

…V-shaped recoveries. It's always been met with a lot of skepticism. Even earlier this year, we had said that the pullback associated with the war would be a V- shaped recovery. >> You did say that, yeah. >> Yeah, and many don't believe it because they would point to oil and all these uncertainties. But I think what I've realized is markets front load on negative shocks. So that's why I think we could have a very severe correction. But unless the economy is breaking, so we actually have a negative cycle, I think that the yield curve will tell us and spreads will tell us, corporate credit spreads. But as long as the economy isn't breaking, whatever correction we have will be V- shaped. I know I'm saying something that sounds mechanical. Of course, it'll be put to the test, but that would still be my default belief. >> It seems as though the market has been getting more and more V-shaped. When we look at just how short these recoveries have been, the war was a perfect example. You did say at the beginning of the year, you thought that we would see a bear market like correction and then a whips aw back. That is what we saw, but it just came in the form of a strange thing, which was going to war with Iran. Looking at your favorite sectors right now for the year, you have energy, small caps,…From: this video · 8 claims mined from it

…Small caps. More upside in the second half. The Dow or NASDAQ. Dow. Russell or S&P 500. Russell. AI hardware or software. Software. Industrials or tech industri als staples or consumer discretionary discretionary financials or health care. Both. Financials. Real estate or private credit. Real estate. Bigger risk. Geopolitics or inflation inflation. One word to describe the U.S. economy. Res ilient. Straight of her move is resolved by your end or ongoing risk. Resolved. Oil by your end . Higher or lower than 70. Lower. One word for the second half. Productive S& P 500 price target by your end. Eight thousand. Brian Levitt the speediest this or that I think that we've ever had. You certainly are the champion there. That's Brian Levitt Chief Global Market Strategist Evan Ves co. Thank you so much. Thank you. If you enjoyed this street talk check out our full interview with Gareth Soloway. He explains why he expects an over 20 percent pullback for the S&P 500 by your end. He has a fifty six hundred price target.…From: this video · 3 claims mined from it

…Joining us now is Megan Shue, Wilmington Trust Chief Investment Strategist, and Megan, I'm going to cut you some slack, Wilmington Trust, a lot of trust there, got to have a lot of trust in what you're doing, so I just think you probably have a more conservative overall viewpoint of how to manage money. It's got to be there, obviously, when you're at Wilmington Trust. But this is what got me. Our economic and market views have become more destructive, and we think it's an appropriate time to move to a modest overweight to equity risk. So all through this, we've been talking about the new highs, again, in these ridiculous outsized gains for the quarter. So through all of this, you haven't been overweight. You've just been market weight? Yeah, we've been fully invested. And if you think about the first quarter, we were really pretty sensitive to some downside risks to the economy, most notably the labor market. And I was probably on here at some point talking about private payrolls, ex-healthcare being in contraction in the first quarter. And we have never seen that outside of…From: this video · 3 claims mined from it