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Warren Pies
3Fourteen Research
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Where they stand
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Semis/hardware down with the momentum factor in first-half July and the day of China's K3 open-source model release; he says 'our base cases that probably last for another couple of weeks or so' @0:59 before the zoom-out call, and 'you never know if this is like the bottom' @0:33.
“But when you zoom out, yeah, I think this will be perceived as a good buying opportunity.”
Nasdaq since this was said: ▼ -0.0% · 25,520 → 25,508 · as of 2026-07-20
Asked to compare the K3 selloff to the DeepSeek moment; his firm's real-time checks back the call: after DeepSeek 'our GPU availability data at 314, it plunged and it gave us a lot of conviction to step in and buy that dip' @3:59, and he expects GPU rental rates 'robust and strong as they've been this year' @4:21.
“Our base case is that we will follow a deep seek like path out of this. That is the base case.”
Conditioned on his team benchmarking K3: 'we need to test this model and run it through our own internal benchmarking' @1:59; he later softens further, 'even with the labs, I don't know that it's a disaster yet for them until we test the model' @4:33.
“But if the reports are correct, then it's really negative for the frontier labs for the frontier models here in America.”
Nasdaq since this was said: ▼ -0.0% · 25,520 → 25,508 · as of 2026-07-20
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