Scott Galloway
NYU Stern / Prof G Media
Photo: Editorial (Option A policy, Jun 10, 2026) - owner-supplied
First call on the ledger
2 still on the clock. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Since they said it
5 directional calls with a price to read (0 bullish, 5 bearish). 1 week later, with the call in 4 of 5; 1 month later, with the call in 0 of 5. Prices as of 2026-09-10. Three fixed windows, the same for every call, always shown together: one week, one month, three months after the first close that followed the tape. What the market did, not a score: a call can have a different horizon, and a view with no number or deadline is never graded here.
Nasdaq from 2026-06-08 to 2026-09-10 · ▲ bullish · ▼ bearish · dot = the close that day
| Date | Market | Call | What was said | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 from 25,837 | Nasdaq | Bearish | “This does feel like Q4, 99. And then March of 2000 is now in plain sight.” | -3.7% with the call | +1.9% against the call | not yet |
| 2026-07-20 from 7,509 | S&P 500 | Bearish | “The market is not broadening. It's just finding new ways to buy Nvidia.” | -1.1% with the call | +2.6% against the call | not yet |
| 2026-07-18 from 25,508 | Nasdaq | Bearish (Leaning) | “a lot of CFOs are gonna say play time is over. I need you to either justify the return on investment in our token consumption or to reduce it.” tech-ai @AI spend | -2.3% with the call | +3.1% against the call | not yet |
| 2026-07-09 from 26,282 | Nasdaq | Bearish | “But I'm a bear around AI stocks right now. I'm bullish on AI technology.” | -2.9% with the call | +1.2% against the call | not yet |
| 2026-07-06 from 25,819 | Nasdaq | Bearish | “The way to describe this historically is this is the fiber overbuild of 1999.” | +1.1% against the call | +2.1% against the call | not yet |
On the clock
Written down and dated. Not judged until the deadline arrives.
“over the next 6 months, the stock would get cut in half” (SpaceX)
“I think a safe bet is that within 6 to 12 months it’s sub a trillion dollars.” (SpaceX market capitalization, said pre-IPO; also called it “a $600 billion” company and said “this thing does not price at $2 trillion”)
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
BearishThe AI Trade
Reacting to OpenAI's brutal week (Apple lawsuit, Atlas browser shutdown, Fiji Simo exit, Oracle downgrade citing OpenAI). He argues bubbles pop in order: apps disappoint, infrastructure overbuilds, capital markets close: it is massively overspent here. And these valuations are gonna come down dramatically @10:57; the real risk isn't that OpenAI loses, is that nobody wins enough to justify these valuations @10:35. He still calls OpenAI and Anthropic amazing companies even down 80 percent @28:13.
“This does feel like Q4, 99. And then March of 2000 is now in plain sight.”
Nasdaq since this was said: ▲ +2.2% · 25,508 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
BearishThe AI IPOs
His formal prediction of the episode, teased in the cold open at 0:25 (duplicate of this in-context occurrence). Full mechanism @35:01: OpenAI acquires Sierra and installs Brett Taylor as their CEO and kicks Altman up to chairman; timeframe restated @35:11: I would say it's six months. You know, it might be 12 but Sam Altman is on the green mile. Repeated as his prediction in the week-ahead segment @64:06.
“We're gonna have a new CEO at OpenAI within the next six months.”
BearishThe AI Trade
He calls it AI dumping from China @17:51: free Chinese models went from less than a third of all traffic in late 2025 to about two thirds recently, subsidized, on cheaper power and chips. Ed supports with pricing data @25:15: GPT 5.6 at $45 per million output tokens vs DeepSeek at 87 cents. Scott still thinks US premium frontier models can compete at the high end (@27:19).
“What the Chinese automobile industry did to Detroit in about three decades, it feels like Beijing is doing to USA AI frontier models in about three months.”
Nasdaq since this was said: ▲ +2.2% · 25,508 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
BearishThe S&P 500
Rebutting a montage of investors touting the broadening-out theme. He calls AI-adjacent buying second order concentration: that's not diversification, it's second order concentration @44:32, and If the AI trade sneezes, we're not catching a cold, we're getting pneumonia @44:53. Ed supports with data: top 10 stocks are 40 percent of the S&P, over half of Russell 2000 returns from AI-related names, 75 percent of EM-ex-China returns from TSMC, Samsung, SK Hynix.
“The market is not broadening. It's just finding new ways to buy Nvidia.”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +2.0% · 7,443 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
BearishStock Picks
Positioning talk: I'm selling down my big tech @52:10; he stays invested (I'm always in the market @49:28) but is de-risking: I'm trying to set myself up for a 20 to 30% decline, not 120% decline, which is what I experienced in the dot com @63:04, and When this collapse, which is coming, it's probably not a collapse, a drawdown of AI happens. There's nowhere to hide @62:53. He admits possible sour grapes for passing on Anthropic at a $20 billion valuation @52:21.
“As a general theme, if I could go long a basket of stocks, would be GLP-1. And if I could go short a basket, it's AI.”
BullishHousing
He backs the thesis with his own allocation: I have invested about half my net worth in buying really high-end homes in four of those five @53:22. Rationale is that income inequality will run unabated, concentrating wealth in the top 0.1 percent, plus psychic income and no daily scorecard vs public stocks. He concedes it partly violates his own diversification rule.
“I think anyone worth over $50 million is gonna have at least one home in one of five places, Dubai, London, Palm Beach, New York, or Aspen.”
BearishThe AI Trade
Companies not getting the ROI they anticipated.
“a lot of CFOs are gonna say play time is over. I need you to either justify the return on investment in our token consumption or to reduce it.”
Scott Galloway · NYU Stern / Prof G Media · tech-ai @AI spendNasdaq since this was said: ▲ +2.2% · 25,520 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
BearishThe AI Trade
Rebuts the 'top-3 companies never go bankrupt' point: drawdowns are the risk.
“Amazon lost 92% of its value, so did Cisco. They didn't go bankrupt, but they lost 92.”
Scott Galloway · NYU Stern / Prof G Media · tech-ai @AI mega-capsNasdaq since this was said: ▲ +2.2% · 25,520 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
BearishThe AI Trade
Front-end players admit they overestimated demand generation.
“the only people creating demand right now are entropic and open AI”
Scott Galloway · NYU Stern / Prof G Media · tech-ai @AI demandNasdaq since this was said: ▲ +2.2% · 25,520 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
BearishThe AI Trade
The distinction he draws:
“But I'm a bear around AI stocks right now. I'm bullish on AI technology.”
Nasdaq since this was said: ▼ -0.5% · 26,207 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
BearishThe State Buys In
“The biggest bailout in corporate history was about to happen… the bailout of Nadella, Altman, Dario Amodei, and it would be dressed up as investment or growth. It's not, it's a bailout”
BearishThe State Buys In
“It's like Sam Altman is trying to make the company as systemic as possible, such that eventually when things go wrong, we have no choice but to bail them out.”
BearishThe AI Trade
“The way to describe this historically is this is the fiber overbuild of 1999.”
Nasdaq since this was said: ▼ -0.2% · 26,121 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
BearishThe State Buys In
“OpenAI made $13 billion in revenue last year. Okay, great. But they spent $34 billion. So their operating loss was $21 billion.”
BearishThe AI Trade
“this is a growing bubble that is nearing a point of maybe not collapse, but certainly massive course correction.”
Nasdaq since this was said: ▼ -0.2% · 26,121 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishEurope
On new Fed chair Warsh stripping out forward guidance:
“People have basically given up on Europe. Investors have basically given up on Europe and that's when you buy.”
BullishStock Picks
Galloway tells Elson that at $4 a share and about $9 billion market cap Snap is a decent buy, since the core platform is a great business once the wearables effort is spun or shut.
at $4 a share and $9 billion or whatever it is in market cap, I actually think Snap's a pretty decent buy right now.
BullishThe AI IPOs
Galloway tells Elson that Bending Spoons, not SpaceX at 22%, will have the biggest first-day pop of any tech IPO in June 2026.
I actually think, and this is a prediction, the best performing one-day IPO, the biggest pop of a tech company of an IPO in June is not SpaceX at 22%.
NeutralThe AI IPOs
Galloway tells Elson Bending Spoons did about $250M revenue with a $120M loss in Q1 2025 and over $600M with a $27M profit in Q1 2026.
This is a company that Q1 of 2025 did about $250 million, lost $120 million. And Q1 of 2026 is going to do over $600 million and just went profitable to $27 million.
BullishThe AI IPOs
Galloway tells Elson Bending Spoons' roughly $19 billion IPO valuation, six to eight times revenue with 88% recurring, looks cheap in this market.
going out at a valuation of around $19 billion. So technically six to eight times revenues, which looks cheap in this market.
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Before you trust the call, check the record.
We write down what public figures predict, in their exact words, and check the result when the deadline arrives. Every line links to its source. How we score · Corrections · The scoreboard · The data
© 2026 Pundit Rumble · independent and unaffiliated · updated every market morning · not investment advice.
We write down what public figures predict, in their exact words, and check the result when the deadline arrives. Every line links to its source. How we score · Corrections · The scoreboard · The data
© 2026 Pundit Rumble · independent and unaffiliated · updated every market morning · not investment advice.