Christian Mueller-Glissmann

His written note, read by the anchor at 24:03, says 'the outlook for profitability among the hyperscalers is becoming more challenging. They're becoming increasingly asset heavy businesses.' He frames the risk as 'a bit of a loss of patience from investors with regards to hyperscalers recouping some of the spent money' @24:40, while staying constructive: 'As long as the earnings come through, I think those stocks should be able to make progress. But the positioning needs to normalize a bit.' @26:13. The anchor notes he thinks the overall structural AI trend is intact.

Explaining Goldman's overweight equities, neutral bonds, underweight credit allocation. He argues 'sovereign bond yields, in the medium term, have to find an equilibrium that's higher' @30:59 and sees 'certain late cycle tendencies. There's re-leveraging, re-leveraging that's linked to the AI ecosystem. There's restructuring, M&A, all of that tends to lead to worsening credit quality.' @31:07. Bonds' portfolio role is shifting toward 'generating yield and to some extent less protecting the portfolio' @30:43.

Asked how many basis points of yield would make bonds attractive again, with the 30-year at 5.13 percent and the 10-year near year highs. He notes 'levels above 5% on the US 10 year are things that we've highlighted in the past, create a certain feedback from the bond market to the equity' @32:07, but hedges: 'There's a lot of other drivers, it depends why they go above 5%, depends how fast' @32:25, recalling that in the tech bubble yields above 6 percent coexisted with fine equity markets. He also worries about 'another wave of inflation risk' if the Middle East conflict continues @28:11.