← Leaderboard
MG
Michael Green
Simplify Asset Management (chief strategist, PM)
First call on the ledger
No calls filed yet. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything
else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
His long-running thesis: passive 401(k) flows are 'a continuous bid regardless of the underlying fundamentals' @0:34, hitting the largest stocks hardest and 'contributing to the concentration behavior we've seen in US equity markets' @2:12. Concludes the index 'is going to become more cyclical and lower quality and aggregate than it has historically been' @6:41.
“this is actually causing the equivalent of a perennial momentum bid into markets that has raised valuations dramatically.”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -0.0% · 7,509 → 7,506 · as of 2026-07-22
Retail, in his words, came down with the semiconductor bug and piled into levered semi ETFs @2:59, changing price elasticity. Warns retail is now dollar-cost averaging into losses and that capital 'is highly likely to be ultimately lost into the institutional harvesting world' @4:09, with semis behaving 'very much like meme stocks' @4:26 and Korea moving to ban the products.
“it contributed, my estimate is, to between 30% and 50% of the total rally that we saw in semiconductor stocks was not tied directly to the behavior of the fundamentals”
Trade barriers 'caused China to expedite investment into this sector' @5:59, and he analogizes to solar, aluminum and steel. Adds 'it becomes easier to become bearish in this space' on fundamentals @6:23, though the passive bid 'is likely to keep it elevated' until employment or demographics turn @6:28.
“This is going to ultimately be a sector where Chinese production is going to drive prices far lower than most Western investors are ever anticipating.”
Follow Michael Green
One short email when Michael puts a new call on the record, and when a verdict lands on one. Plain words, free.