Dan Ives
Yorkville Ives & Co
Photo: editorial use
First call on the ledger
3 still on the clock. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Since they said it
10 directional calls with a price to read (10 bullish, 0 bearish). 1 week later, with the call in 4 of 10; 1 month later, with the call in 5 of 9. Prices as of 2026-09-10. Three fixed windows, the same for every call, always shown together: one week, one month, three months after the first close that followed the tape. What the market did, not a score: a call can have a different horizon, and a view with no number or deadline is never graded here.
Nasdaq from 2026-06-22 to 2026-09-10 · ▲ bullish · ▼ bearish · dot = the close that day
| Date | Market | Call | What was said | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 from 26,729 | Nasdaq | Bullish | and it's always been our view-- that investors are way underestimating the scale and scope of the AI revolution. | -2.0% against the call | not yet | not yet |
| 2026-08-05 from 7,710 | S&P 500 | Bullish | I believe what Microsoft showed in that quarter, I think that's an inflection point for all of tech, because it shows what's happened to monetization and the hyperscowers. It's not just so important for Microsoft, but I think important for the overall sector. We're going to look back and this is going to be a monumental sort of turning point. | +1.1% with the call | +0.1% with the call | not yet |
| 2026-07-30 from 308.9 | Apple | Bullish (Leaning) | “This has been a surprise eye for an upgrade cycle, and I think that will continue to play out, especially in China.” | +1.4% with the call | +2.6% with the call | not yet |
| 2026-07-26 from 24,932 | Nasdaq | Bullish | “It's third inning in the AI revolution” | +3.9% with the call | +4.9% with the call | not yet |
| 2026-07-26 from 336.9 | Apple | Bullish | “toll collector on the consumer AI highway” | -9.9% against the call | -8.0% against the call | not yet |
| 2026-07-18 from 25,508 | Nasdaq | Bullish | “It speaks to my view, third inning, one out, man on first.” | -2.3% against the call | +3.1% with the call | not yet |
| 2026-07-18 from 369.6 | Tesla | Bullish (Leaning) | “like Tesla I've talked about, you know, the chances are over 80%, and we talked about before that they were gonna acquire Tesla.” | -16.3% against the call | -8.8% against the call | not yet |
| 2026-07-18 from 326.6 | Apple | Bullish (Hedged) | “I don't have a price target right now, but just look at that stock today, okay?” | +3.2% with the call | -5.1% against the call | not yet |
| 2026-07-15 from 7,534 | S&P 500 | Bullish | “15 to one demand the supply. This AI revolution is still third inning, but the hyperscalers, those are the ones, the ones that are funding the AI party, funding the capbacks.” | -1.7% against the call | +3.3% with the call | not yet |
| 2026-07-15 from 354.5 | Alphabet | Bullish | “This is a perfect example. That fits well in, and they are at the epicenter of the build out, and especially when it comes on search.” | -10.4% against the call | -2.4% against the call | not yet |
On the clock
Written down and dated. Not judged until the deadline arrives.
Nasdaq 30,000 within the next six months (reaffirmed on air; AI rally in the “third inning, one out”)
Nasdaq since the call: ▲ +3.6% · 25,170 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
Anthropic's S-1 is “an opening of the floodgates” for the IPO market, with three major conglomerates set to go public later this year.
“The odds of a Tesla-SpaceX combination are now about 80%” (on podcast: “80%, 90% type of chance”), expected to finalize in the first half of 2027
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
NeutralAI Winners & Chips
Dan Ives (Yorkville Ives) tells Bloomberg Radio that for the first time in 30 years the US is ahead of China in technology.
And the reality is, for the first time in 30 years, the US is ahead of China when it comes to tech.
BullishAI Winners & Chips
Dan Ives says counting China out of the AI race is the wrong bet, citing its lead in nuclear energy and robotics, and argues US chipmakers must keep selling into China.
So I think, as someone that might have spent so much time in the region, it's one like counting them out is the wrong bet.
NeutralThe AI Trade
Dan Ives says the biggest risk to the AI revolution is politics blocking data-center buildouts (e.g. New York's moratorium), not capex or use cases.
So I actually think the biggest sort of risk, when you think about what could happen to AI revolution, it's not cap backs. It's not use cases. The biggest risk is just the political piece gets in the way in terms of the data center build outs.
Nasdaq since this was said: ▼ -2.7% · 26,803 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
NeutralThe AI Trade
Dan Ives says AI chip demand currently exceeds supply by roughly 13-14 to 1.
So I view it as, right now, demand the supply for chips, 13, 14 to 1, demand the supply.
Nasdaq since this was said: ▼ -2.7% · 26,803 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishThe AI Trade
Dan Ives says investors are still way underestimating the scale and scope of the AI revolution and the AI trade.
and it's always been our view-- that investors are way underestimating the scale and scope of the AI revolution.
Nasdaq since this was said: ▼ -2.7% · 26,803 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishThe AI Trade
Dan Ives says AI chip supply will not reach equilibrium with demand until probably 2028 or early 2029.
Well, equilibrium, you won't hit till probably 2028, maybe early 2029.
Nasdaq since this was said: ▼ -2.7% · 26,803 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishAI Winners & Chips
Dan Ives says physical AI (robotics, autonomy) is the golden goose and the biggest eventual monetization piece, with agentic AI a highway toward it.
I've always viewed physical AI as sort of the golden goose
BullishThe AI IPOs
Dan Ives says OpenAI and Anthropic going public will further solidify the foundation of the AI revolution.
But that's why open AI and anthropic, when you think about as they go public and there is-- that just further solidifies the foundation for the AI revolution.
BullishThe AI Trade
Dan Ives says betting against the AI trade is betting against a capex cycle that continues to accelerate.
And that's why I think those that bet against this, it's betting against a CapEx cycle that actually continues to accelerate.
Nasdaq since this was said: ▼ -2.7% · 26,803 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishAI, Jobs & Productivity
Dan Ives says the AI innovation boom and US tech renaissance will add jobs in the United States on net.
I view that as to add jobs in the United States, despite maybe some of the more negative news today.
BullishThe AI Trade
Bloomberg segment on the tech melt-up driving a $3.5T Nasdaq 100 gain in four days; Microsoft noted up 38% from the end of March.
I believe what Microsoft showed in that quarter, I think that's an inflection point for all of tech, because it shows what's happened to monetization and the hyperscowers. It's not just so important for Microsoft, but I think important for the overall sector. We're going to look back and this is going to be a monumental sort of turning point.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -1.7% · 7,724 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishThe AI Trade
Acknowledges 'white knuckle moments' for Microsoft and tech but insists the AI revolution is early.
But the reality is, this earnings season shows you, you're in the third inning. I can maybe even say bottom of the second, you almost go back to where this is all playing out relative to monetization, especially on the hyperscalers.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -1.7% · 7,724 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishThe AI Trade
Asked why Caterpillar 'just blew out numbers'; Ives ties industrials and energy names (e.g., Bloom Energy/Quanta-type plays, per garbled 'room energy, Quana') to the data-center capex build-out.
So this is, remember for every dollar in cap backs, there's a five to six dollar multiply across the rest of tax.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -1.7% · 7,724 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishApple
surprise eye = iPhone garble; on Apple's quarter as Cook hands off
“This has been a surprise eye for an upgrade cycle, and I think that will continue to play out, especially in China.”
Apple since this was said: ▼ -2.1% · 333.4 → 326.6 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishApple
puts Cook on the Mount Rushmore of CEOs
“it comes down to Cook, 10 percent politician, 90 percent CEO”
Apple since this was said: ▼ -2.1% · 333.4 → 326.6 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishThe AI Trade
where we are in the cycle; nobody slows capex
“It's third inning in the AI revolution”
Nasdaq since this was said: ▲ +4.4% · 24,976 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
NeutralAi Financing
equity raises by hyperscalers over the next 6-18 months. referent (equity raises) lives in the host question; keep it attached
“I think it's gonna be a tidal wave”
BullishThe AI Trade
1955 analogy: pull back and you're in Reno. full line ends 'in 1955'; keep the Reno payoff attached or the analogy is opaque
“you're building out the Vegas Strip”
Nasdaq since this was said: ▲ +4.4% · 24,976 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishApple
Apple's position either way
“toll collector on the consumer AI highway”
Apple since this was said: ▼ -1.9% · 333.0 → 326.6 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishThe AI Trade
Ives says if he thought AI were in the 'seventh, eighth inning' he wouldn't have launched his firm; he thinks investors still underestimate 'the scale and scope of this broad theme.'
“It speaks to my view, third inning, one out, man on first.”
Nasdaq since this was said: ▲ +2.2% · 25,520 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
BearishSpaceX
With SpaceX trading below its IPO price, Ives compares it to Amazon/Facebook post-IPO dead-money periods and lockup/indexing-driven volatility, while maintaining SpaceX is central to the AI 'fourth industrial revolution' long-term.
“it's hard to say fourth industrial revolution without SpaceX, but any company like a SpaceX, the valuation support is not there.”
BullishTesla
Framing SpaceX as 'a bet on Musk,' Ives references his prior view that a Musk-consolidation acquisition of Tesla has over an 80% chance.
“like Tesla I've talked about, you know, the chances are over 80%, and we talked about before that they were gonna acquire Tesla.”
Tesla since this was said: ▼ -4.5% · 380.8 → 363.6 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishStock Picks
Ives rebuts 'haters' who say Apple is out of the AI game, pointing to the stock's move that day as evidence the AI theme's scale is underestimated.
“I don't have a price target right now, but just look at that stock today, okay?”
Apple since this was said: ▼ -2.1% · 333.7 → 326.6 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishStock Picks
Asked if Palantir is 'still the Messi of AI,' Ives says Karp is 'playing a different game,' that Palantir's every post-IPO quarter has been strong, and that the software/commercial story is 'still to come.'
“I think Palantir, it's hard to say that the AI revolution happens without a name like Palantir.”
BullishSpaceX
Asked why SpaceX gets no analyst bump as it hits post-IPO lows, Ives says long-term investors will treat this as 'speed bumps' @0:32 and that 'Space more and more is going to be a huge part of the AI revolution' @0:41, comparing the setup to Facebook's and Amazon's early public years.
“This is a 26-mile marathon. I think we're only in mile one or two.”
BullishThe S&P 500
On chips and mega caps he says 'it comes down to QQ earnings. That's really going to be the flash line in the dark tunnel' @2:16 (whisper garbles 'Q2' and 'flashlight'), calls the hyperscalers 'mostly in the penalty box' @2:33, and 'the demand storage still early' @2:44. 'Capbacks' is a whisper garble of capex.
“15 to one demand the supply. This AI revolution is still third inning, but the hyperscalers, those are the ones, the ones that are funding the AI party, funding the capbacks.”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +0.3% · 7,572 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishStock Picks
Reacting to Warren Buffett picking Alphabet as a winner, Ives says 'A year ago, the New York City cab driver was Barish on it' @3:01 (garble of bearish) and frames Alphabet as one of the 'valuation names that you could rationalize in AI' @3:14 for value buyers like Berkshire.
“This is a perfect example. That fits well in, and they are at the epicenter of the build out, and especially when it comes on search.”
Alphabet since this was said: ▼ -10.3% · 370.9 → 332.6 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishAI Winners & Chips
AI is third inning, one out; keep owning the chip trade
Dan Ives · Yorkville Ives & Co · CNBCBullishAI Winners & Chips
Micron is a gut-check moment; chip demand-supply ~12-15:1, no equilibrium ~2 yrs
Dan Ives · Yorkville Ives & Co · CNBCBullishStock Picks
Microsoft is the most oversold large cap; a $550 stock
Dan Ives · Yorkville Ives & Co · CNBCFollow Dan Ives
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© 2026 Pundit Rumble · independent and unaffiliated · updated every market morning · not investment advice.
We write down what public figures predict, in their exact words, and check the result when the deadline arrives. Every line links to its source. How we score · Corrections · The scoreboard · The data
© 2026 Pundit Rumble · independent and unaffiliated · updated every market morning · not investment advice.