The Shift.
Same voice. Same question. Different answer.
Financial media has no memory, so nobody notices when a call quietly
changes. We keep both versions, dated and sourced, side by side. What changed in
between is yours to judge; we just kept the receipts.
THE SHIFT · ED YARDENIthe fed
Then · May 18, 2026A quarter-point Fed rate hike is “likely” in July 2026 to appease the bond vigilantes.
Now · 2026-06-18“We thought he was a dove who favored lowering the federal funds rate. Instead, he hammered home a strict orthodox message on inflation with a strong commitment to price stability” (his written note, read on air); “it may be a do nothing Fed for a while”
THE SHIFT · MIKE WILSONoil & gas
Then · 2026-06-18Very bearish oil; crude 'can only get to ~$125'
Bloomberg
Now · 2026-09-09And it looks to me like it's going to be oil prices going up because there's no demand destruction.
THE SHIFT · STEPHANIE LINKthe ai trade
Then · 2026-07-06“I think we are in the early stages of the AI boom”
Now · 2026-07-14“it's coming to pass that AI is having an impact on software”
THE SHIFT · LORI CALVASINAthe s&p 500
Then · 2026-07-27“It feels like we're starting to see more evidence of a reason to derisk”
Now · 2026-07-31“our base case has been we're going to be higher over the next 12 months, but it's not going to be in a linear fashion”
THE SHIFT · DAVID SACKSthe ai trade
Then · 2026-07-18“I tweeted that anthropic is running a sophisticated regulatory capture strategy based on fear mongering.”
Now · 2026-08-14I do think the TAM is big enough. I think the demand is going to be there.
THE SHIFT · CHAMATHthe s&p 500
Then · 2026-07-14“the multiples of free cash flow of all these public companies are going to come way in”
Now · 2026-08-02I agree with Freiburg about the fact that when you can get 5%, 5.25% from the U.S. government, there's another natural thing that happens, which is that investment grade corporates actually have better credit ratings now than the government of America, which t
THE SHIFT · DAVID FRIEDBERGthe u.s. economy
Then · 2026-05-15But if you think about the second and third effects of this over the next year, you could see energy prices spiking and electricity spiking and the grid failing in parts of the Southwest, commodity prices spiking all over the world.
Now · 2026-08-13We're 2 trillion short. We've got 40 trillion a debt 30 years at 5%. That's 2 trillion a year in interest expense.
THE SHIFT · DAVID SACKSthe u.s. economy
Then · 2026-07-06“once it's on the ballot, I don't see why it wouldn't pass.”
Now · 2026-08-11So all of this is leading to an economic boom in the economy.
THE SHIFT · TOM LEEthe crash question
Then · 2026-07-02“I'm anxious about this market in a lot of ways, because I look at, you know, the Shiller PE as an example, which is extremely high right now, basically coming up on dotcom territory.”
Now · 2026-07-03So I think we have room for the Shiloh PE to be higher
THE SHIFT · TOM LEEthe ai trade
Then · 2026-07-02“a lot of these earnings that we're seeing that they hinge on these contracts with these AI companies whose ability to actually pay out on those contracts”
Now · 2026-09-10if someone says that that's a sign that the A.I. bubble is going to end badly I think then they're not really good students history
THE SHIFT · DAVID SACKSai winners & chips
Then · 2026-07-10“I think that open source went from 19% last year to 11% this year. So open source, as a share of enterprise spending is actually decreasing.”
Now · 2026-08-14So now look, I actually think that their pricing power may be quite sustainable, because I think people are willing to pay not the whole market, not the whole market, but a decent subset of the market is willing to pay a premium for true frontier intelligence.
THE SHIFT · JASON CALACANISthe ai trade
Then · 2026-07-10“everybody's going to learn how to drop the price by 95%.”
Now · 2026-08-14If you put those numbers together, you're looking at a trillion dollars in AI spend just in the United States
THE SHIFT · ADRIAN DAYgold & hard assets
Then · 2026-07-10“if we fail on that retest, we'll be down to 3,600.”
Now · 2026-07-15“The negative sentiment on gold equities among the broader investment public right now is, and I say this literally, the worst sentiment I have ever seen in my 50 years managing money in any sector at any time.”
THE SHIFT · LOBO TIGGREoil & gas
Then · 2026-07-10“But if we're talking second half of 2026, I think we see oil come higher, significantly higher from where we are now.”
Now · 2026-07-15“I do have a very bullish thesis on oil sort of medium to long term.”
THE SHIFT · LORI CALVASINAai winners & chips
Then · 2026-07-13“comm services is a sector that has a lot of tech in it and so we had preferred that area and we're switching it up today.”
Now · 2026-07-15“and semi valuations which had gotten pretty expensive. They're not super cheap yet. They may still have more to go. I want to be clear about that.”
THE SHIFT · JEFF CURRIEoil & gas
Then · 2026-07-13“war machine 1.0, meaning artificial muscle, tanks and, you know, all the oil driven stuff. That stuff can't hold a candle to the AI drone war kit 2.0.”
Now · 2026-09-10Actually, I put a bigger weight on China coming back to the market because you can just see the bid across Asia.
THE SHIFT · CHAMATH PALIHAPITIYAthe u.s. economy
Then · 2026-05-15They're marching towards a trillion. They're going to be the next blackstone
Now · 2026-07-14“some sort of quasi bankrupt moment”
THE SHIFT · SAUL MARTINEZstock picks
Then · 2026-07-15“It is hard to envision, you know, continued growth off of the base we're on.”
Now · 2026-07-16“But again, it is, you look at the backdrop and it doesn't seem like there 's anything that's really going to derail this train at this point.”
THE SHIFT · GARFIELD REYNOLDSthe ai trade
Then · 2026-07-17“Meanwhile, they also still seem so elevated on a historical basis that we 're some way away from capitulation.”
Now · 2026-07-22“in a lot of ways we're reasonably set up for further gains in tech shares, for a realisation that the AI boom is going to boost US economic output”
THE SHIFT · JASON CALACANISai, jobs & productivity
Then · 2026-05-22I think we have to recognize that the layoffs that are occurring in big tech and in a lot of these places are not just the bloating issue
Now · 2026-07-19“I mean, these things, we're kind of there on AGI, don't you think? Like we've kind of achieved it. We just haven't deployed it.”
THE SHIFT · ANTHONY STEVENSthe ai trade
Then · 2026-07-20“China has found a software workaround to its hardware constraints and that is what the market is pricing in here on the AI picks and showers trade and that is what will continue to play out.”
Now · 2026-08-14So there is an incredible amount of demand for tech debt.
THE SHIFT · DAN IVESspacex
Then · 2026-07-15“This is a 26-mile marathon. I think we're only in mile one or two.”
Now · 2026-07-18“it's hard to say fourth industrial revolution without SpaceX, but any company like a SpaceX, the valuation support is not there.”
THE SHIFT · SCOTT BESSENTthe dollar
Then · 2026-07-22“Their currency has collapsed. It is at an all-time low versus the dollar. It's in free fall. And we think the inflation rate is upwards of 180 percent.”
Now · 2026-07-31“the market will realize the end is undervalued and should strengthen”
THE SHIFT · SCOTT GALLOWAYthe ai ipos
Then · 2026-06-25I actually think, and this is a prediction, the best performing one-day IPO, the biggest pop of a tech company of an IPO in June is not SpaceX at 22%.
Now · 2026-07-20“We're gonna have a new CEO at OpenAI within the next six months.”
THE SHIFT · SCOTT GALLOWAYstock picks
Then · 2026-06-25at $4 a share and $9 billion or whatever it is in market cap, I actually think Snap's a pretty decent buy right now.
Now · 2026-07-20“As a general theme, if I could go long a basket of stocks, would be GLP-1. And if I could go short a basket, it's AI.”
THE SHIFT · ED ELSONthe ai ipos
Then · 2026-07-20“It's clear that Anthropic is going to win that race. In fact, if we look on Kalsi, the odds that they will announce an IPO before 2027 are up to 74%.”
Now · 2026-08-13then the signs at OpenAI are quite plain to see. It's not going great.
THE SHIFT · NEIL CAMPLINGthe ai trade
Then · 2026-07-22“I think if you look at the kind of spending they're doing, then the asset heavy is a concern if they become kind of industrial tech companies, which probably longer term warrants a lower type of valuation multiple.”
Now · 2026-08-12I think the demand clearly is very, very strong.
THE SHIFT · RICK RULEinflation
Then · 2026-06-25the U.S. dollar lost 75% of its purchasing power over 10 years, which is what I believe happens over the next 10 years. I believe it's happening as we speak.
Now · 2026-07-15“The government will tell you that the dollar is losing its purchasing power to the extent of two and a half percent a year. The real number for your family is eight.”
THE SHIFT · PETER SCHIFFinflation
Then · 2026-07-23“I think inflation, as measured by the CPI, or any way you wanna measure it, is headed higher.”
Now · 2026-09-08And in fact, if there's a recession, then that's going to be even more inflation.
THE SHIFT · WILLEM MIDDELKOOPgold & hard assets
Then · 2026-07-25“I wouldn't be surprised to see gold going under 4,000 one more time”
Now · 2026-07-31I think this correction is almost over.
THE SHIFT · STEVE EISMANthe ai trade
Then · 2026-07-27“I sold my Google a couple of months ago”
Now · 2026-08-06Amazon is spending $225 billion this year on CapEx? So until we
THE SHIFT · JEREMY SIEGELthe ai trade
Then · 2026-07-27“excessive investment lowers returns”
Now · 2026-08-13margins overall on the S&P are at all-time highs. But if you take out the tech communication, they've been relatively stable. But they can improve dramatically if they can use what AI is designed for, and that is to reduce costs.
THE SHIFT · JASON FURMANai market
Then · 2026-07-31“I don't think there's any reason to expect that to happen anytime soon”
Now · 2026-08-02I think we're going to find that using a cheap model that is six months old, one month year old, maybe even two years old, will have way, way more enough power for anything that we need in our day to day lives. In some sense, the cutting edge is going to be ab
THE SHIFT · JEREMY SIEGELthe u.s. economy
Then · 2026-08-10atlanta fed thinks it's going to be over five percent i think that's too optimistic for the third quarter
Now · 2026-08-13And productivity, which has lagged the first two quarters of this year, but it looks like it might really pick up in this third and fourth quarter.
THE SHIFT · VEN RAMthe u.s. economy
Then · 2026-08-12I think there is a case for a tactical rally in duration but I do think that once those short positions are flushed out I think that then we'll set bill towards new short positions because the market is going to be episodic in its sell-offs
Now · 2026-09-08to the extent that the concession is is nominal and mild I think it's a it's going to be well digested by the markets.
THE SHIFT · TODD 'BUBBA' HORWITZgold & hard assets
Then · 2026-06-09I think it's probably got a little bit more room to go to downside it. I would think probably in the mid 50s
Now · 2026-08-24So I've been long those products since you and I have talked over the last couple of months, and I think that they're gonna continue to go higher.
THE SHIFT · TODD 'BUBBA' HORWITZstock picks
Then · 2026-06-09today with this sell-off, I bought more Monster, I bought more MP, I bought more SMCI, I bought more CCJ
Now · 2026-08-24I think that the banks got problems. I don't think they could pass a legitimate stress test.
THE SHIFT · DAVID FRIEDBERGai winners & chips
Then · 2026-03-19Honestly, and that's after people are replacing entire enterprise software stacks in a night.
Now · 2026-05-15But they're gonna be up against a formidable competitor is my point, 'cause I think Google Assistant is gonna end up being kind of a real kick-ass product once they get this flywheel going.
THE SHIFT · RICK RULEthe dollar
Then · 2026-06-25If that's correct, that will continue to strengthen the US dollar and reduce the quotes of all items denominated in US dollars. That includes ironically Canadian dollars and gold.
Now · 2026-08-26Rather than that, the US government counterfeited, that's the right phrase for it, a bunch of new US currencies and loaned that money to the Japanese on extraordinarily advantageous terms,
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