SpaceX
29 bullish · 17 bearish · 8 neutral · exact words, dated and sourced
+18The trillion-dollar IPO era: what the valuation proves, and to whom.
The count, last 30 days: 5 bullish, 4 bearish. The tape leans bullish. A count, not a verdict.
The tape
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bullishbearishclaims filed per week
What the people who move markets are saying about this, in their own words. These are views on the record, not scored bets: when a call here grows a number and a deadline, it moves to the scoreboard. Newest first.
Neutral
Peter Schiff guesses SpaceX and Tesla will probably end up as one company, while saying he does not know.
Well, they're probably going to end up being the same company, but I don't know.
Tesla since this was said: ▼ -1.2% · 368.2 → 363.6 · as of 2026-09-10
Bearish
Peter Schiff says both SpaceX and Tesla are badly overpriced and SpaceX may be the more overpriced of the two, so he would reluctantly take Tesla.
Actually, SpaceX may be more overpriced than Tesla, so maybe Tesla.
Bullish
Todd Horwitz bought SpaceX at 113 as an oversold trade despite his overall downside bias.
For example, I bought SpaceX at 113. And obviously it's had a nice little rally from there.
Bullish
Stephanie Link (Hightower) tells CNBC she bought SpaceX at the IPO and has kept buying after a ~30% pullback, accepting heavy capex because the company sees monetization within a year.
And I also bought SpaceX and I have been buying SpaceX. I bought it in during the IPO and it's pulled back about 30 percent.
Bullish
David Sacks tells Calacanis Musk's compute clusters are a call option on becoming a frontier lab and a put option on selling compute to the frontier labs.
So that you can think of that as like the call option is to catch up and become a true frontier lab. But if he fails at that, he's got the put option of just selling the compute.
David Sacks · Craft Ventures / All-In Podcast · https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kVzYGVJ8zUk @92:45 ↗Bullish
Gavin Baker tells Sacks and Calacanis that SpaceX investors ignore Grok even though it is Pareto-dominant on many measures, and should factor it into SpaceX's value.
Very few of these investors talk about Grok at all, and it is Pareto dominant on a lot of measures.
Bearish
Tim Farrar of TMF Associates tells Prof G Markets that Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile had inflated valuations relative to their current businesses, now falling back alongside SpaceX.
Well, I think both Rocket Lab and AST had got very inflated valuations based on their current business.
Bearish
Tim Farrar of TMF Associates tells Prof G Markets that SpaceX also carries a very high valuation for the size of its actual business.
It also has a really high valuation for the size of the business it actually has.
Bullish
Tim Farrar of TMF Associates tells Prof G Markets Rocket Lab is better positioned than AST because it avoids head-to-head competition with SpaceX.
So, you know, Rocket Lab, I think, has a slightly better position. It's trying to avoid the head-to-head competition with SpaceX.
Neutral
Tim Farrar of TMF Associates tells Prof G Markets Starlink passed $10bn of revenue last year, mostly by taking share from legacy satellite operators.
Today, Starlink has made a lot of progress. It's got to $10 billion of revenue over $10 billion last year.
Bearish
Tim Farrar of TMF Associates tells Prof G Markets that terrestrial power and land solutions will improve, keeping orbital data centers and the space economy a small share of the market.
I'm bullish about what might happen on the ground. And so I think that inevitably means that what we do in space is going to tend to be limited to a small percentage of the overall market.
Neutral
Kevin Paffrath says the change-of-control clause waiving operational milestones in Musk's 2025 Tesla award is brilliant optionality for Musk but 'kind of evil' relative to what shareholders thought they voted for.
In my opinion, this is, again, brilliant optionality by Elon, though it's kind of evil because it's not what shareholders really intended to vote on
Tesla since this was said: ▲ +9.2% · 332.8 → 363.6 · as of 2026-09-10
Bearish
Kevin Paffrath says if SpaceX overpays for Tesla so Musk can roll appreciated Tesla stock into more SpaceX ownership, SpaceX shareholders are the ones who get hurt.
to increase his SpaceX ownership at a high Tesla valuation is good for him, but not good for SpaceX shareholders.
Tesla since this was said: ▲ +9.2% · 332.8 → 363.6 · as of 2026-09-10
Bullish
Played clip of SpaceX CFO; $6.7B additional cloud revenue contracted, ramping from October.
of the third quarter. We've already contracted an additional six point seven billion dollars of cloud services revenue over a six month period that begins ramping starting in October of this year. We
Bullish
SpaceX long-term view. talking her book (ARK holder), disclosed
“We think this could become the most important company in”
Bullish
SpaceX reusable-rocket moat. book disclosed; she concedes Blue Origin recently landed a rocket
“it has a 10 year lead”
Bullish
Asked how Schwab is preparing for the August 6 SpaceX lockup expiry, two days after earnings, with the stock below its IPO price. Earlier he says the SpaceX IPO was 'The heaviest day of call volume we've ever seen in the history of the firm' @25:58 and 'The level of retail interest, I've never seen a level of retail interest like this in an IPO or anything.' @26:34.
“Yeah, the retail investor is still buying SpaceX. We still see volume and it's largely one sided.”
Neutral
Asked directly about 'your decision not to fast track SpaceX inclusion in the S&P 500' @3:30. She says it followed a lengthy public consultation and was made 'with independence, with a lot of integrity' @4:10.
“the independent index committees at S&P DJI really made the decision to stick to the course, to stick to our methodologies, to not move on allowing these mega IPOs to enter on a fast track basis into the S&P 500.”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +1.1% · 7,509 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Bearish
Re-up of his earlier call: I predicted that SpaceX would get a 25% pop on the first day of trading. That happened. And then I said it would get cut in half. We're down to 40% down from its highs @64:19. Catalyst cited: lockup expirations, We're about to see a ton of supply come online @64:40.
“So I'm just gonna hold to the prediction. It's gonna get cut in half and I could easily seeing it trading below $100 a share.”
Bullish
Bailey attributes SpaceX's post-IPO ~35% drop to FOMO unwind (comparing the chart to Cerebras) and profit-taking as investors sell Micron/Intel, saying there's been 'no true fundamental change to the underlying thesis.'
“Starship delay was small on the margin. You should see a typical pullback, but that's not really, shouldn't equate to a 35% pullback.”
Bearish
Came in expensive; marketed as a cloud not a rocket; now below IPO price.
“it's now fallen into this momentum unwind in almost all things AI.”
Bearish
With SpaceX trading below its IPO price, Ives compares it to Amazon/Facebook post-IPO dead-money periods and lockup/indexing-driven volatility, while maintaining SpaceX is central to the AI 'fourth industrial revolution' long-term.
“it's hard to say fourth industrial revolution without SpaceX, but any company like a SpaceX, the valuation support is not there.”
Bearish
Continuation of his 'SpaceX suckening' thesis: 'We said that SpaceX has a risk of being a top for the market, mostly because it's a liquidity suck, right?' @2:53: a ~$75-85B raise draining market cash; notes SpaceX bonds pay ~150bp over Treasuries vs ~80bp for other hyperscalers, stock 'tanked off of its highs' with Apple retaking most-valuable-company. On memory: 'we've priced in the selling out of memory hardware for the next year or two.'
“I'm still bearish memory and still bearish a SpaceX.”
Bearish
Reaffirming his pre-IPO $62 fair value with SpaceX at ~$133 (down 40% from peak, below the $135 IPO price). Bull case worth $130-160 has 'only a 7% chance' @3:10; medium case ~$71 @3:21. On whether the stock keeps falling into lockup expiries: 'I think that seems likely' @5:52 (teaser duplicate of that exchange at 0:00). Street consensus he rebuts: 27 of 31 buys, $242 average target.
“I have a discounted cash flow model. We have forecasts out to 2045. We're discounting those today. So we're saying these shares are fundamentally worth $62 today, again, probability weighted.”
Bullish
Despite his $62 fair value he expects a strong first public earnings print ('earnings August something, August 8th or 9th' @4:29), citing 'those rental agreements with Anthropic and Google... pretty nice chunks of revenue at low marginal cost' @10:38. On the full-year stock path he stays neutral: 'Honestly, I think it could go either way' @9:47, since 'there has to be more demand than supply for the stock to go up' @11:22.
“I expect the quarterly report to be glorious. We have pretty good growth rates for even for 2026.”
Bearish
He replays his June 10 on-air prediction ('here is my prediction for what will happen tomorrow... SpaceX stock will immediately explode 25%' @2:01) and scores himself 'Almost two for two, we'll see' @2:20 as SpaceX hits an all-time low of $132.75, down 40% from peak. Reaffirmation on Jul 16 of the Jun 10 call; the six-month clock runs from ~Jun 11 IPO.
“my other prediction is that within six months, probably sooner, SpaceX stock will be cut in half. Why? Because the valuation makes no sense whatsoever.”
Bullish
Asked why SpaceX gets no analyst bump as it hits post-IPO lows, Ives says long-term investors will treat this as 'speed bumps' @0:32 and that 'Space more and more is going to be a huge part of the AI revolution' @0:41, comparing the setup to Facebook's and Amazon's early public years.
“This is a 26-mile marathon. I think we're only in mile one or two.”
Bearish
Clip runs as SpaceX falls to $135 for the first time, below its $150 IPO price from last month. He adds 'I just think it's the unwind of the momentum names that we're continuing to see' @1:19. 'Faith stop' is a whisper garble of 'faith stock'.
“I don't know if it's anything between SpaceX, other than SpaceX is a faith stop. Yes, tremendous business, but you can't value it, and we don't know when they'll be profitable.”
Bullish
Discloses long exposure via Founders Fund/Swarm history; sees industrial logic in SpaceX acquiring Tesla (fair premium 'probably a 50% premium' given lawsuit risk); 'The spectrum he bought from Charlie Ergen I think is going to get lit up' (@54:28); self-labels the phone-device call as speculation
“tens of millions of people all around the world that will pay him incrementally for that. I think that is what's being slept on. That is the key asset.”
Bearish
Lee says over $1 trillion of SpaceX stock unlocks by year-end, a large supply overhang for the market.
But by the end of the year, over a trillion should be available. I think that that for the public and for the general market, that is a lot of supply
Bullish
Lee says SpaceX's IPO is a huge success and is not why OpenAI/Anthropic paused theirs.
I actually think SpaceX is a huge success. So I don't think SpaceX has anything to do with open AI and anthropic slowing their IPOs
Bearish
SpaceX share unlock is the H2 risk: float ~$90B now, over $1 trillion available by year-end; IPO liquidity unlock starts in the fall
Tom Lee · Fundstrat Global Advisors · Prof G Markets (yt kL3CAFG5MiIBullish
Very bullish SpaceX; incredible appreciation over 3-5 years
Ankur Crawford · Alger · Bloomberg (Alger)Neutral
Visser tells Pompliano that with Colossus and the Anthropic/Google deals SpaceX is now the fourth-largest hyperscaler.
I think they're now the fourth largest hyperscaler
Bullish
Visser says SpaceX deserves a premium for Musk's ability to build data centers through the bottlenecks.
I think the premium that should come for SpaceX is the ability of him to navigate the bottlenecks that we're seeing and be able to build these data centers
Neutral
Visser says SpaceX is a richly valued current business plus a large call option on space stations/orbital data centers.
So I think SpaceX is really two companies. You're getting a put in it, which is the revenue that's coming in right now. It's still valued extremely rich, but then you're getting this massive call option on these other parts
Bullish
Visser says building data centers on land may now be harder than in space given cooling, power, land and regulatory friction.
Building data centers on land might be at this point more complicated than doing them in space
Bearish
Visser says Musk achieving everything needed to justify SpaceX's current value is a low-probability event; he prefers silver and copper.
he needs to accomplish a lot. And so it's a low probability event. I'll take silver and building a position here in silver and in copper
Bullish
Todd 'Bubba' Horwitz tells Kitco he is a believer in SpaceX and thinks it will be fine, while noting buyers are paying up for a company that does not make money.
And of course, when you're buying into a SpaceX, I mean, listen, I'm a believer. I think it'll be fine, but you're buying into the hole and you're buying into a company that does not make money.
Bullish
Thomas Laffont tells the All-In Summit that within a few years Starlink will power a device enabling phone calls anywhere in the world, addressing the global telco profit pool.
I believe that within a few years, Starlink will power a device which will actually enable you to make a phone call anywhere in the world.
Neutral
Thomas Laffont tells the All-In Summit he has no view on whether $1.75T is the right SpaceX IPO price.
I don't know whether 1.75 is the right price for the IPO, and you know, frankly, I have no clue.
Bullish
Thomas Laffont tells the All-In Summit that SpaceX's core Starlink business addresses a $200-400B global telco profit pool with a substantially better product.
What I do know is that the global profit pool of telco and service providers across the world is anywhere between $200 to $400 billion
Bullish
Holding my SpaceX shares forever; orbital compute will dominate launch
Shaun Maguire · Sequoia Capital · Bloomberg TechnologyBearish
SpaceX is ground zero, trading near 100x last year's revenue
Gil Luria · D.A. Davidson · Prof G MarketsBullish
Gavin Baker tells All-In that the $15B/yr Anthropic compute deal effectively quadruples SpaceX/xAI's AI revenue and the business can grow far faster than anyone expected three months ago.
But 15 billion, that means the AI business right there is going to quadruple. It has already effectively quadrupled.
Bullish
Gavin Baker tells All-In it is far more plausible that Elon/xAI sells compute to Google than to OpenAI within a year.
Well, I think it's much easier to see him selling compute to Google.
Bullish
Gavin Baker tells All-In that orbital compute will become reality, noting only outsiders to data centers and space are skeptical, and SpaceX is best positioned.
The only people who are skeptical of Orbital Compute are those people who are not involved in data centers or space. Google, Anthropic, Amazon, Nvidia. They are all very convinced that Orbital Compute is gonna be reality.
Bullish
Chamath Palihapitiya tells All-In that SpaceX will do $25-30B of revenue in 2026, up from $18-19B in 2025.
Well, last year it did 18, 19 billion dollars. It'll probably do 25 to 30 this year, okay.
Bullish
Chamath Palihapitiya tells All-In that SpaceX revenue will be roughly $40-45B in 2027 and double again in 2028.
So I suspect what happens is next year, it's probably 40, 45 billion. And then the year after that, it probably doubles again.
Bullish
Chamath Palihapitiya tells All-In that a combined SpaceX/Tesla asset base will look cheap at today's ~$2T valuation within a few years.
That thing will look very cheap, I think, in a few years.
Bullish
Chamath Palihapitiya tells All-In that SpaceX/xAI terrestrial data centers alone will produce $100-200B of revenue by 2030-2032.
I would flex the revenue and realize that terrestrial data centers alone are a hundred or $200 billion of revenue by 2030
Neutral
Gavin Baker tells All-In he guesses Starship achieves rapid reusability in one to two years, maybe sooner, while disclaiming a prediction.
I don't know when, I don't wanna make a prediction. I would guess a year or two, maybe sooner.
Bullish
Gavin Baker tells All-In his point prediction is that orbital compute becomes a reality between 2H 2028 and 1H 2030.
But I think the second half of 28 to first half of 2030 would be my point prediction.
Bearish
SpaceX will fail to deliver its prospectus promises (and he owns it)
Jeremy Grantham · GMO · Diary of a CEOOn the scoreboard
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We write down what public figures predict, in their exact words, and check the result when the deadline arrives. Every line links to its source. How we score · Corrections · The scoreboard · The data
© 2026 Pundit Rumble · independent and unaffiliated · updated every market morning · not investment advice.
We write down what public figures predict, in their exact words, and check the result when the deadline arrives. Every line links to its source. How we score · Corrections · The scoreboard · The data
© 2026 Pundit Rumble · independent and unaffiliated · updated every market morning · not investment advice.