SpaceX
9 bull · 10 bear · 1 neutral · exact words, dated and sourced
+9The trillion-dollar IPO era: what the valuation proves, and to whom.
The count, last 30 days: 7 bull, 7 bear. The tape is split. A count, not a verdict.
The tape
Jun 15
Jun 29
Jul 13
Jul 20
bullbearclaims filed per week
What the people who move markets are saying about this, in their own words. These are views on the record, not scored bets: when a call here grows a number and a deadline, it moves to the scoreboard. Newest first.
Bull
SpaceX long-term view. talking her book (ARK holder), disclosed
“We think this could become the most important company in”
Bull
SpaceX reusable-rocket moat. book disclosed; she concedes Blue Origin recently landed a rocket
“it has a 10 year lead”
Bull
Asked how Schwab is preparing for the August 6 SpaceX lockup expiry, two days after earnings, with the stock below its IPO price. Earlier he says the SpaceX IPO was 'The heaviest day of call volume we've ever seen in the history of the firm' @25:58 and 'The level of retail interest, I've never seen a level of retail interest like this in an IPO or anything.' @26:34.
“Yeah, the retail investor is still buying SpaceX. We still see volume and it's largely one sided.”
Neutral
Asked directly about 'your decision not to fast track SpaceX inclusion in the S&P 500' @3:30. She says it followed a lengthy public consultation and was made 'with independence, with a lot of integrity' @4:10.
“the independent index committees at S&P DJI really made the decision to stick to the course, to stick to our methodologies, to not move on allowing these mega IPOs to enter on a fast track basis into the S&P 500.”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +3.1% · 7,509 → 7,742 · as of 2026-08-05
Bear
Re-up of his earlier call: I predicted that SpaceX would get a 25% pop on the first day of trading. That happened. And then I said it would get cut in half. We're down to 40% down from its highs @64:19. Catalyst cited: lockup expirations, We're about to see a ton of supply come online @64:40.
“So I'm just gonna hold to the prediction. It's gonna get cut in half and I could easily seeing it trading below $100 a share.”
Bull
Bailey attributes SpaceX's post-IPO ~35% drop to FOMO unwind (comparing the chart to Cerebras) and profit-taking as investors sell Micron/Intel, saying there's been 'no true fundamental change to the underlying thesis.'
“Starship delay was small on the margin. You should see a typical pullback, but that's not really, shouldn't equate to a 35% pullback.”
Bear
Came in expensive; marketed as a cloud not a rocket; now below IPO price.
“it's now fallen into this momentum unwind in almost all things AI.”
Bear
With SpaceX trading below its IPO price, Ives compares it to Amazon/Facebook post-IPO dead-money periods and lockup/indexing-driven volatility, while maintaining SpaceX is central to the AI 'fourth industrial revolution' long-term.
“it's hard to say fourth industrial revolution without SpaceX, but any company like a SpaceX, the valuation support is not there.”
Bear
Continuation of his 'SpaceX suckening' thesis: 'We said that SpaceX has a risk of being a top for the market, mostly because it's a liquidity suck, right?' @2:53: a ~$75-85B raise draining market cash; notes SpaceX bonds pay ~150bp over Treasuries vs ~80bp for other hyperscalers, stock 'tanked off of its highs' with Apple retaking most-valuable-company. On memory: 'we've priced in the selling out of memory hardware for the next year or two.'
“I'm still bearish memory and still bearish a SpaceX.”
Bear
Reaffirming his pre-IPO $62 fair value with SpaceX at ~$133 (down 40% from peak, below the $135 IPO price). Bull case worth $130-160 has 'only a 7% chance' @3:10; medium case ~$71 @3:21. On whether the stock keeps falling into lockup expiries: 'I think that seems likely' @5:52 (teaser duplicate of that exchange at 0:00). Street consensus he rebuts: 27 of 31 buys, $242 average target.
“I have a discounted cash flow model. We have forecasts out to 2045. We're discounting those today. So we're saying these shares are fundamentally worth $62 today, again, probability weighted.”
Bull
Despite his $62 fair value he expects a strong first public earnings print ('earnings August something, August 8th or 9th' @4:29), citing 'those rental agreements with Anthropic and Google... pretty nice chunks of revenue at low marginal cost' @10:38. On the full-year stock path he stays neutral: 'Honestly, I think it could go either way' @9:47, since 'there has to be more demand than supply for the stock to go up' @11:22.
“I expect the quarterly report to be glorious. We have pretty good growth rates for even for 2026.”
Bear
He replays his June 10 on-air prediction ('here is my prediction for what will happen tomorrow... SpaceX stock will immediately explode 25%' @2:01) and scores himself 'Almost two for two, we'll see' @2:20 as SpaceX hits an all-time low of $132.75, down 40% from peak. Reaffirmation on Jul 16 of the Jun 10 call; the six-month clock runs from ~Jun 11 IPO.
“my other prediction is that within six months, probably sooner, SpaceX stock will be cut in half. Why? Because the valuation makes no sense whatsoever.”
Bull
Asked why SpaceX gets no analyst bump as it hits post-IPO lows, Ives says long-term investors will treat this as 'speed bumps' @0:32 and that 'Space more and more is going to be a huge part of the AI revolution' @0:41, comparing the setup to Facebook's and Amazon's early public years.
“This is a 26-mile marathon. I think we're only in mile one or two.”
Bear
Clip runs as SpaceX falls to $135 for the first time, below its $150 IPO price from last month. He adds 'I just think it's the unwind of the momentum names that we're continuing to see' @1:19. 'Faith stop' is a whisper garble of 'faith stock'.
“I don't know if it's anything between SpaceX, other than SpaceX is a faith stop. Yes, tremendous business, but you can't value it, and we don't know when they'll be profitable.”
Bull
Discloses long exposure via Founders Fund/Swarm history; sees industrial logic in SpaceX acquiring Tesla (fair premium 'probably a 50% premium' given lawsuit risk); 'The spectrum he bought from Charlie Ergen I think is going to get lit up' (@54:28); self-labels the phone-device call as speculation
“tens of millions of people all around the world that will pay him incrementally for that. I think that is what's being slept on. That is the key asset.”
Bear
SpaceX share unlock is the H2 risk: float ~$90B now, over $1 trillion available by year-end; IPO liquidity unlock starts in the fall
Tom Lee · Fundstrat Global Advisors · Prof G Markets (yt kL3CAFG5MiIBull
Very bullish SpaceX; incredible appreciation over 3-5 years
Ankur Crawford · Alger · Bloomberg (Alger)Bull
Holding my SpaceX shares forever; orbital compute will dominate launch
Shaun Maguire · Sequoia Capital · Bloomberg TechnologyBear
SpaceX is ground zero, trading near 100x last year's revenue
Gil Luria · D.A. Davidson · Prof G MarketsBear
SpaceX will fail to deliver its prospectus promises (and he owns it)
Jeremy Grantham · GMO · Diary of a CEOOn the scoreboard
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We write down what public figures predict, in their exact words, and check the result when the deadline arrives. Every line links to its source. How we score · Corrections · The scoreboard
© 2026 Pundit Rumble · independent and unaffiliated · updated every market morning · not investment advice.
We write down what public figures predict, in their exact words, and check the result when the deadline arrives. Every line links to its source. How we score · Corrections · The scoreboard
© 2026 Pundit Rumble · independent and unaffiliated · updated every market morning · not investment advice.