The Dollar
20 bullish · 31 bearish · 12 neutral · exact words, dated and sourced
+33Debasement, reserve status, and where the currency everyone prices in goes next.
The count, last 30 days: 4 bullish, 10 bearish. The tape leans bearish. A count, not a verdict.
The tape
Jul 27
Aug 03
Aug 10
Aug 17
Aug 24
Sep 07
bullishbearishclaims filed per week
What the people who move markets are saying about this, in their own words. These are views on the record, not scored bets: when a call here grows a number and a deadline, it moves to the scoreboard. Newest first.
Bearish
Jeff Currie tells the anchor, adopting Robin Brooks's framing, that investors who cannot express a rates view sell the dollar, and that weaker dollar is pushing commodity prices up alongside physical scarcity.
Because again, if you can't express your point of view about where rates should go, then you're going to sell the currency. So weaker dollar, and this was happening in the markets yesterday, is shooting up the price of a lot of commodities.
Dollar index since this was said: ▲ +0.1% · 99.09 → 99.16 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
Lee sees the yen range-bound with USD/JPY meeting resistance near 150 and policymakers content with anything below 160
We do suspect that it's still difficult for the currency to rally significantly from here. So it's quite possible that we start facing some resistance for the dollar yen, maybe around that 150 level
Bearish
Mark Cranfield (Bloomberg MLIV) says Bessent's 'I am the house' dare to yen traders is the kind of thing policymakers usually live to regret, though not always immediately
Generally speaking, when major policy makers stick their neck out with those kinds of things, they live to regret it. Doesn't always happen immediately, but it might take a little while. Not usually a wise thing to take on markets in that way.
Dollar-yen since this was said: ▲ +0.3% · 153.5 → 153.9 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
Rhee Chang-yong (former BOK governor) says Korea's FX market is structurally different (flow-driven, net creditor) so won moves should not cause panic
Big message is that please forget about the past history. We are in a structured different effects market, so we don't need to be panicked when exchange moves. We have to adjust to the flexible exchange rate system.
Neutral
Rhee says small-economy policymakers can smooth FX volatility but cannot steer the exchange rate; only fundamental policy changes can
think as a small economy, I strongly believe that the policymaker has to be humble. In my cases, I can smooth out the volatility, but I cannot steer the effects action. Only fundamental changes of policy can do it.
Bearish
Ven Ram (Bloomberg MLIV) says yen strength driven by GPIF reallocation fears could force portfolio deleveraging and stoke cross-asset volatility.
to the extent that the dynamic continues I think it's going to cause portfolio managers to deleverage the portfolios and stroke volatility.
Bullish
Ven Ram says yen gains can feed on themselves in a self-fulfilling spiral that could continue for now.
this is this could be a self fulfilling prophecy where the yen gains in the yen feed more gains in the spot. And that spiral vicious spiral could continue for it for the time being.
Dollar-yen since this was said: ▲ +0.0% · 153.9 → 153.9 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Peter Schiff says the US will not prevent a currency or sovereign-debt crisis because it will keep running reckless fiscal and monetary policy until forced to stop.
we are not going to prevent a currency crisis or a sovereign debt crisis. We're going to keep pursuing these reckless policies until we have no choice.
Bearish
Rule tells Lin the US government 'counterfeited' new dollars and lent them to Japan for its yen intervention rather than let Japan sell Treasuries.
Rather than that, the US government counterfeited, that's the right phrase for it, a bunch of new US currencies and loaned that money to the Japanese on extraordinarily advantageous terms,
Dollar index since this was said: ▼ -0.0% · 99.17 → 99.16 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Trinh Nguyen (Natixis) tells Bloomberg the yen, very undervalued on a real effective basis, is primed to readjust and could rise against the dollar if Japanese rates rise faster.
And we think that the yen is prime for some readjustment of this global imbalance.
Dollar-yen since this was said: ▼ -3.3% · 159.2 → 153.9 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Trinh Nguyen (Natixis) tells Bloomberg the yen has more room to appreciate than the yuan because Beijing will keep yuan appreciation against the dollar very marginal to protect exporters.
we think, on a yen basis, there's more room for appreciation versus the yuan
Neutral
Hoxha tells Bloomberg the BOJ will hike but will not outpace market pricing.
I believe they will. Will they outpace market pricing. I don't think so. I don't think it's in their interest to do so.
Bullish
Hoxha tells Bloomberg the yen is more likely than not to trade stronger over the next 12 months.
But I would say more likely than not that we see yen trade stronger over the next 12 months.
Dollar-yen since this was said: ▼ -3.3% · 159.2 → 153.9 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
Shery Ahn (Bloomberg anchor) doubts the yen can strengthen through 155 per dollar given that past interventions failed to break that level.
For me, I kind of am skeptical that we will be able to break the 155 level, given even the past interventions, we couldn't get through that wall.
Neutral
Tim Waterer (KCM Trade) expects USD/JPY to trade in a 153-160 range for the rest of 2026, with intervention chatter above 160.
Quite possibly, certainly not a certainty, but I think we could see it maybe operating and saw that 153 to 160 range for the rest of the year
Neutral
Rahm Emanuel tells the All-In hosts he is glad the US joined Japan's yen intervention, attributing it to US self-interest given pressure on Treasuries and the dollar from the debt load.
I'm happy the administration has decided to support the yen and intervention. I think there's a lot of self-interest as relates to our treasuries and our dollars
Bearish
Clem Chambers reads the yen's post-intervention spike-and-fade as a bearish pattern and expects the yen to keep weakening.
I mean, it's a nice looking chart, but that's a bearish chart, right? Because things that are bearish spike up and float down.
Dollar-yen since this was said: ▼ -3.4% · 159.3 → 153.9 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Mark Cranfield expects the yen to keep underperforming near 160 per dollar, with renewed intervention likely, unless BOJ speakers signal September and October hikes.
Anything less and the yen will probably stay as a big underperformer and we'll have to look towards intervention, yes again, to stabilize the currency.
Dollar-yen since this was said: ▼ -3.4% · 159.3 → 153.9 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
Ven Ram tells Lacqua the Bank of Japan needs to raise rates faster to reach neutral, which is why the yen is under pressure.
I think they need to be raising rates at a quicker pace we are they are nowhere near neutral and the first stop that they need to get to is neutral and they need to do it as of yesterday not as of tomorrow
Neutral
Ven Ram tells Lacqua Japanese officials will intervene again if the yen weakens back to 160-163 per dollar.
if the yen goes back to one sixty to one sixty three levels I think we will see those interventions
Neutral
Bill Campbell (DoubleLine) tells Bloomberg that Treasury Secretary Bessent joined the yen intervention and expanded the Fed's foreign repo facility because he is worried Japanese selling could spill into the US Treasury market.
Treasury Besant, I think tipped his hand that he is concerned that there could be passed through to the U.S. Treasury market.
Bearish
Bill Campbell (DoubleLine) tells Bloomberg the joint yen intervention only addresses the symptom, since the yen's slide and rising JGB yields stem from loose Japanese fiscal policy and a negative real policy rate that remain unaddressed.
But I really think this intervention is, you know, in a way, it's only addressing the symptom, not the underlying problem.
Dollar-yen since this was said: ▼ -3.4% · 159.3 → 153.9 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Bill Campbell (DoubleLine) tells Bloomberg that Japan's negative real policy rate combined with loose fiscal policy at roughly 200% debt-to-GDP is a bad cocktail that keeps the yen weak and JGB yields rising.
the real policy rate in Japan is negative. And both of those are, you know, a bad cocktail when you're running a debt to GDP
Bearish
Thomas Hayes (Great Hill Capital) tells David Lin he keeps playing a weaker US dollar and a stronger yen over the coming couple of years despite the short-term counter-trend move.
I'd continue to play weaker dollar over the coming couple of years and stronger yen.
Dollar index since this was said: ▼ -0.8% · 100.0 → 99.16 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Minoru Kiuchi tells Bloomberg that Japan's 'responsible and proactive' fiscal policy will attract investment and put upward pressure on the yen rather than weaken it.
I therefore do not see responsible on proactive public finances as a policy that leads to a weaker yen. And on the contrary I believe it can put upward pressure on the yen.
Dollar-yen since this was said: ▼ -3.3% · 159.2 → 153.9 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Sam Unsted of Bloomberg tells the anchor that carry, low volatility and rate differentials still favour a weaker yen absent a faster BOJ move.
the attractions for bringing the yen lower remain pretty good for most traders. The carry trade is still pretty strong. Volatility is low.
Dollar-yen since this was said: ▼ -3.3% · 159.2 → 153.9 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Ven Ram tells Bonnie Quinn the US Treasury cannot keep rescuing the yen (tiny FX reserves), so it is on the BOJ to fix it.
there are limits to how far the Treasury can rescue the yen, because the US effects reserves are pretty minuscule in comparison to what a lot of the other economies have.
Bullish
Ven Ram tells Bonnie Quinn that if the BOJ hikes quickly to neutral, the yen will strengthen.
If they did that quickly enough, the markets will correct themselves, and the yen will go higher.
Dollar-yen since this was said: ▼ -3.3% · 159.2 → 153.9 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
Yardeni tells Lake the Bank of Japan needs to raise rates substantially to align with the rest of the world.
what they really need to do is raise their interest rates substantially in order to be in line with interest rates in the rest of the world.
Bearish
Yardeni tells Lake the yen crisis may not be over unless the BOJ hikes significantly.
But unless they actually raise interest rates significantly, then this currency crisis may not be over.
Dollar-yen since this was said: ▼ -3.3% · 159.2 → 153.9 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Thierry Wizman tells the Bloomberg anchor the dollar stays robust near term if oil stays high and pushes the Fed to hike.
if oil prices stay high and it compels the Fed to raise rates because it's certainly part of the picture for them. I think the dollar will be let's call it robust steady.
Dollar index since this was said: ▼ -0.7% · 99.81 → 99.16 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Thierry Wizman tells the Bloomberg anchor that next year, if oil falls and elections pass, the dollar falls out of favor and the diversification trade returns.
Looking into next year though if oil prices finally fall we get we get on the other side of these French elections and the dollar falls out of favor
Dollar index since this was said: ▼ -0.7% · 99.81 → 99.16 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Lead-Lag Media founder on David Lin; Aug-5-2024 carry-trade unwind vindicated his 2023 warning.
the carry trade actually did unwind.
Bearish
Same tape; expects the yen to undo the intervention bounce; market vs manipulators.
that I think the yen's gonna undo that move.
Bearish
Skeptical Bessent can engineer a stronger yen with anemic US FX reserves; he wants to circle a lot of squares, it's not happening.
I think that you know it's a bit of fear mongering on the part of Besant to suggest that the wide Asian currencies could weaken on the back of the yen. What has been happening in Asia is completely different.
Bearish
Intervention alone cannot rescue the yen without BOJ tightening; USDJPY never broke 155.
Until they do so, it's very much a one-sided situation where you've got currency intervention, but no change in monetary policy. Until the two come together, you're not going to get a sustained gain in the Japanese currency.
Bullish
After the first joint US-Japan intervention in ~15 years (est $53bn+$34bn); FIMA repo removes the reserve limit. EVENT: will/fail test at 155.
I think this time the authorities are determined to really break 155, the key level. If they fail this time to break that level, then I think the market will see the authorities have exhausted policy options.
Bullish
Defends BofA's low-150s year-end USDJPY target on improving balance of payments. EVENT: will, dated year-end.
Well, my argument, so we changed our bearish yen view in May to a constructive one. And our argument is that, you know, the balance of payment has been improving, you know, quite a lot for Japan, for the Japanese yen over the past year.
Bullish
Year-end USDJPY ~155, no return to 164; cites FIMA repo firepower behind the intervention. EVENT: will/wont, dated.
I think we could easily end up in the year around 155 on the dollar yen seems like a reasonable target. I don't think we're going to go back to the 164.
Bullish
BOJ September hike the base case after the joint intervention. EVENT: will, dated.
So I think a move in September is likely. That's what we've been expecting even before all of this started to happen.
Bullish
Post-intervention, dollar-yen regaining 160 unlikely. EVENT: wont.
Getting back above the 160 level looks, I think, much more difficult in this environment.
Bearish
Even as two governments buy yen, the macro (oil inflation, differentials) works against it.
macro backdrop is not getting more favorable for the yen. It's actually going against the yen.
Bearish
Intervention slows the bleed rather than turning the trend.
So I think against this big backdrop of a macro perspective, the FX policy strategy maybe is more about so slowing the pace of yen depreciation rather than really seeking to turn it around with directional perspective.
Bullish
the end = yen garble; hours before the BOJ decision, after suspected intervention
“the market will realize the end is undervalued and should strengthen”
Bearish
positioning read: rate differentials keep yen shorts on despite intervention
“a weak yen is likely the outcome over a stronger one”
Bullish
day after reported US-assisted intervention with yen at 160
“Japanese yen seems very undervalued to me. The currency is very cheap.”
Bearish
Dollar-yen has just topped 163, a fresh four-decade low. Cranfield says intervention only knocks dollar-yen down by a couple of big figures and the BoJ is well behind the curve: 'Everything is very skewed towards the yen remaining a weak currency' @8:02; 'So if we're repeating the 1980s, there's a very long way to go' @8:45.
“And unless they can persuade the Japanese pension funds to move large amounts of money back home, the yen will stay undervalued and it will be something that traders don't fear.”
Dollar-yen since this was said: ▼ -5.7% · 163.2 → 153.9 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Yen above 163, weakest since 1986. He cites Japan's shift to reinvesting FDI income abroad and the oil-import bill, plus 'there is a window here of complete complacency on the market to pile in on yen shorts, especially if you're getting paid in carry, unless Japan does something on intervention' @29:05.
“So on a structural basis, Japan has a flow kind of problem going against it, versus this carry trade that is now building. Every other currency that exports oil is starting to trade a lot better than the yen.”
Dollar-yen since this was said: ▼ -5.7% · 163.2 → 153.9 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
He cites foreigners no longer dumping Korean equities, a BOK 'a little bit more strident that they are going to be embarking on a rate hike cycle' @29:55, government messaging for a stronger won, and a cheap-export boom offsetting energy imports.
“And it really does set up for some Korean won strength here. Korean won versus yen cross has gone up to the top end of its range. And it looks like it might break up.”
Bearish
Asked whether intervention at 163 would be wasted, he answers 'Pretty much so. I mean, the tools that they have at their disposal right now are just going to put a few scratches on the due code. But the car is going to keep on rolling' @84:57; dollar strength backed by oil, yields and a hawkish Fed.
“So that's a set up which leaves the yen facing sustained declines about all they can do is try and slow it down, try and keep the declines measured and avoid a too rapid shift.”
Dollar-yen since this was said: ▼ -5.7% · 163.2 → 153.9 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
In the same clip he says Treasury is tracking the Ayatollah's $100 million-plus properties and IRGC accounts worldwide and 'We froze a crypto wallet linked to the IRGC the other day, about $130 million' @0:18.
“Their currency has collapsed. It is at an all-time low versus the dollar. It's in free fall. And we think the inflation rate is upwards of 180 percent.”
Neutral
Immediately follows his gilt-negative fiscal read; his point is that sterling is insulated from the fiscal angst hitting gilts because of its high carry.
“I think from an FX perspective, the pound doesn't really care too much. I think the high carry is more important.”
Bearish
Bhardwaj says the 'dollar smile' now looks like a 'smirk': despite resilient US growth and the Fed expected to hike soon, the 'hedge dollar trade' (foreigners buying US equities/Treasuries but hedging out dollar exposure) caps any rally; AI equity inflows have skyrocketed while the dollar barely bumps.
“the dollar is strengthening but really struggling to rally here. Any dollar move higher meets with a clear ceiling here because the dollar now needs a lot more boost”
Dollar index since this was said: ▼ -1.8% · 101.0 → 99.16 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
“I think it's a continued short term short to medium term growing higher for the dollar.”
Bearish
Goldman's 12-month dollar-yen forecast:
“We have it in you know about 12 months 1.65.”
Bullish
Rick Rule says that if US rates rise near term, the US dollar strengthens and dollar-priced assets, including gold and the Canadian dollar, get marked down.
If that's correct, that will continue to strengthen the US dollar and reduce the quotes of all items denominated in US dollars. That includes ironically Canadian dollars and gold.
Dollar index since this was said: ▼ -2.2% · 101.4 → 99.16 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Gavin Baker tells All-In he does not see a dollar crisis coming because the US is the best house in a bad neighborhood, with AI and energy self-sufficiency.
I don't think a dollar crisis is around the world.
Dollar index since this was said: ▼ -0.2% · 99.32 → 99.16 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Peter Schiff tells the interviewer that the dollar-centered fiat reserve system, of which the US has been the main beneficiary, is about to unravel.
The dollar has been the reserve and we have been the principal beneficiaries of this monetary system that I think is about to unravel.
Bullish
Peter Schiff tells the interviewer that the Chinese yuan, up ~5% against the dollar last year and again this year, is headed a lot higher.
Last year, the Chinese yuan was appreciated maybe 5% against the U.S. dollar. It's up again this year. I think it's headed a lot higher.
Bullish
Raoul Pal tells Mando the traditional-world 2026 theme is the cyclical commodity trade with the Aussie and Canadian dollars rising, and inflation crawling higher only over time, not yet.
It's where the Aussie dollar goes up and the Canadian dollar goes up and that typical cyclical trade that ends up with over time inflation crawling higher again, which not yet, but over time.
Bearish
Peter Schiff says the US may face a dollar and sovereign-debt crisis in 2026, reading gold's surge as a 2006-style warning.
I think what we may see next year is a US dollar and sovereign debt crisis.
Bearish
Peter Schiff, on his June 2025 podcast, says the dollar is falling against every major currency and will keep falling.
So the dollar is going down across the board and it's going to continue to go down.
Dollar index since this was said: ▲ +2.4% · 96.88 → 99.16 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Peter Schiff, in June 2025, says the dollar could lose 20% of its value against foreign currencies over calendar 2025 at the pace it is falling.
at the rate it's going, the dollar could lose 20% of its value against foreign currencies this year.
On the scoreboard
Voices in this debate who also have scored calls on the ledger.
Head to head
Pick any two voices in this debate; their freshest claims go side by side.
Follow The Dollar
One short email when this debate moves: new calls, reversals, verdicts. Plain words, free.
Before you trust the call, check the record.
We write down what public figures predict, in their exact words, and check the result when the deadline arrives. Every line links to its source. How we score · Corrections · The scoreboard · The data
© 2026 Pundit Rumble · independent and unaffiliated · updated every market morning · not investment advice.
We write down what public figures predict, in their exact words, and check the result when the deadline arrives. Every line links to its source. How we score · Corrections · The scoreboard · The data
© 2026 Pundit Rumble · independent and unaffiliated · updated every market morning · not investment advice.