← Leaderboard
NC
Neil Campling
Bloomberg (as introduced on tape)
First call on the ledger
No calls filed yet. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything
else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
BearDeals
leaning · 2026-08-05
SpaceX fell after hours on AI capex; $1T-by-2030 ambition vs $12.5bn H1 sales.
The problem is just putting it simply for every one dollar of revenue the entire company makes they're burning two dollars of cash. So these big ambitions are coming at significant cost. You know they did seven point eight billion dollars of revenue but they burn more than 16 16 billion dollars of cash because of the capex.
Previewing Alphabet, Tesla and IBM results due after the bell. He says the only offset is 'producing super normal growth rates and returns' and warns 'Otherwise, it was a risk for sure that valuations could continue to shrink over the longer term' @41:44. On Alphabet specifically, consensus has cloud growth at '65% year on year' and next-year AI capex 'growing at 3X, what that number was last year', so Alphabet must show accelerating cloud growth to justify the spend @39:15.
“I think if you look at the kind of spending they're doing, then the asset heavy is a concern if they become kind of industrial tech companies, which probably longer term warrants a lower type of valuation multiple.”
Nasdaq since this was said: ▲ +3.0% · 25,691 → 26,456 · as of 2026-08-05
Follow Neil Campling
One short email when Neil puts a new call on the record, and when a verdict lands on one. Plain words, free.