117 bullish · 31 bearish · 1 hold · 28 neutral · exact words, dated and sourced
+85
Single names on the record: who is pounding the table for what, with dates attached.
The count, last 30 days: 29 bullish, 10 bearish. The tape leans bullish. A count, not a verdict.
The tape
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bullishbearishclaims filed per week
What the people who move markets are saying about this, in their own
words. These are views on the record, not scored bets: when a call here grows a number
and a deadline, it moves to the scoreboard. Newest first.
Bullishleaning · 2026-09-10
Richard Windsor expects some Pro Max buyers to upgrade to the $2,000 foldable iPhone, giving Apple an ASP lift and slightly higher estimates.
People who may have bought a pro max for thirteen hundred dollars may now buy this for two thousand dollars. And so Apple gets an ASP lift which will increase estimates slightly.
Richard Windsor doubts the foldable iPhone wins Apple significant share from Android now, since foldable users are Android diehards and the segment is ~2% of volume.
And so consequently I suspect unlikely that Apple is going to significantly make an encroachment into the Android market with this new product at this point in time.
Richard Windsor says Apple offers no substantial value as a tech or AI play and is not a stock he is interested in, though a little further upside is possible.
does Apple offer substantial value in a great way to either play the technology market or artificial intelligence. No. So it's not really a stock that I'm particularly interested in. But you can see where there might be a little bit further upside.
Jack Caffrey tells the anchor his portfolio is long financials as beneficiaries of the steeper yield curve of recent months.
We'd long a lot of financials in the portfolio, again, beneficiary hopefully of a steeper yield curve, which does seem to be the case of what we've been living with for the last several months
Tom Lee likes banks and small caps (Russell 2000) because AI is about to transform financial services and lift its multiples.
So I you know we like the banks and of course that's also why we like small caps because I I think financial banks are a big weight in the Russell 2000
Mandeep Singh (Bloomberg Intelligence) does not expect a big iPhone upgrade cycle from the $2,000+ foldable given its price versus the Pro lineup
The price point to me is quite rich, you know, compared to the pro lineup. So from that perspective, I don't see a big upgrade cycle, even with, you know, the newness of the form factor.
Heath states Metalla's Taca Taca (First Quantum) and Copper World (Hudbay) royalties should come online around 2030 (company milestone)
So two of our largest copper royalties, our Royalty on First Quantum's Takataka and our Royalty on Hubbe's Copper World are both set to come online kind of in and around 2030.
Heath reports Metalla's record Q2 revenue, adjusted EBITDA and first net income despite gold 21% off its high (company milestone)
we just printed the best quarter in the company's history. We had record revenue. We had our first real kind of net income, while gold was down 21% from its high.
Stephanie Link (Hightower) tells CNBC Amazon is the best-positioned Magnificent Seven name, citing AWS growth accelerating to 38% and ~9% retail comps.
I think Amazon is the best position because I think they can win in very, very many ways.
Stephanie Link (Hightower) tells CNBC she bought Nvidia for the first time: cheapest since 2019, 85% revenue growth, 75% margins and free cash flow set to double.
And they're growing like gangbusters, like 85 percent revenue growth. Margins are 75 percent. They're going to double free cash flow.
Rick Rosenfield (CPK co-founder) has confidence that new owner Consortium Brand Partners will restore California Pizza Kitchen to former and new glory.
So I have confidence in this team, and for the first time in all these years, my partner Larry Flax and I are very excited about where it could go.
Rob Sanderson says Reddit is down this year because of upcoming licensing renewals with Google and OpenAI and a user drop after Google's algorithm changes, not because its data is no longer needed.
So the issues that are plaguing the stock though, really the upcoming licensing renewals at Google and open AI, both important, Google more important, and then more recently a drop in users following Google's recent algorithm changes.
Josh D'Amaro, Disney CEO, tells CNBC the parks delivered 28% earnings growth last quarter and keep generating returns alongside streaming margin expansion.
Great revenue growth, earnings growth, 28%. The parks, I think, were a big surprise to people, and they just keep generating returns for the company, streaming and expanding margins.
Vishal Garg tells Bloomberg Better shares, down roughly half since his ouster, are fundamentally undervalued and the company should buy back up to $30m.
The company shares are fundamentally over that undervalued relative to where they were just two weeks ago.
Vishal Garg tells Bloomberg that if Better turns profitable over the coming months and sells its UK bank for >$70m of cash, buying back stock is the best use of it.
if we are able to generate both proceeds from operations turning profitable over the coming months and execute the sale of the bank which will release over 70 million dollars in cash to the company then buying back the company stock is one of the best things it can do
Adrian Hallmark tells Bloomberg Aston Martin's planning shows it can keep selling V12 cars through 2035 in most regions after recent policy shifts.
We're now in a situation where all of our future planning indicates that we can continue to sell the 12 similar versions of our cars through to 2035 in most countries and in most regions.
Adrian Hallmark tells Bloomberg Aston Martin should demonstrate in H2 2026 and into 2027 that it has turned the corner to positive cash flow and EBIT on ~6,000 cars a year with a mix of high-end specials.
We can generate positive cash rather than burning cash. We can generate positive instead of negative bit. And we're on that path with a volume per year of about six thousand sales
Gavin Baker tells Calacanis and Sacks the reported Silver Lake bid for Workday marks the return of a private-equity bid for software after a 12-18 month death spiral, a significant positive for software stocks.
And the return of a private equity bid for software really changes the investing landscape.
Gavin Baker tells Calacanis and Sacks that increasingly competitive open-source models are a godsend for the US software industry, whereas a world of 2-3 dominant frontier models would be hard for software.
I do know that the rise of open source and the increasing competitiveness of open source is a godsend for the American software industry
Patrick McHenry says the US has about 2,000 fewer banks than before the financial crisis and blames the cost of being a bank, arguing the banking lobby is scapegoating crypto.
We have two thousand fewer banks than we did pre financial crisis.
Clem Chambers says Goldman Sachs (and the other underwriters of Nvidia's $500bn AI financing) is a buy because they will collect the fees, which he estimates at ~$35bn.
Goldman Sachs, why wouldn't you be on Goldman Sachs? Yeah, they're going to be handing out the money, aren't they?
Wong Hong (AAPA Director General) tells Bloomberg that Asia-Pacific airline demand should hold through the July-August summer but he expects demand headwinds from Q4 2026 as fares and fuel surcharges bite.
I think the risk is obviously coming off that from the final quarter of the year. I suspect that might be some headwinds that we would see as far as demand also.
Matt Ingram (Bloomberg Intelligence) tells the Asia Trade the market's bearishness on Commonwealth Bank is unjustified: margins look strong in 2027 on RBA hikes and business-lending growth.
Margins look really good in 2027 with the RBA rate hikes
Matt Ingram is bullish on Australian bank earnings across the sector; credit costs from a prolonged Iran war, high fuel costs or rising unemployment are the threat but not his base case.
We're very bullish on earnings across the sector, and we think that credit costs, if this war plays out, if fuel costs remain elevated, and if we see an unemployment problem, then that's a threat to the sector. But that's not our base case.
Dan Niles says Intel will be one of the great semiconductor stocks for the next couple of years, with the $20bn raise removing an overhang and signalling big customers next year.
But I think Intel is going to be one of the great semiconductor stocks for the next couple of years.
Brett Schulman (Cava CEO) tells Bloomberg that consumers are trading into Cava from full-service restaurants, other limited-service chains and grocery, i.e. Cava's growth is share gain, not just trade-down.
Yeah, we see people trading into Kava from full-service restaurants, from other limited-service restaurants, or as an alternative to the grocery store.
Brett Schulman (Cava CEO) tells Bloomberg Cava took a ~1.5% menu price increase in January and plans no further increases in 2026 despite inflation above 3%.
We took about a 1.5% menu price adjustment in January with no plans to take further price increase where inflation is running north of 3% this year.
Jonathan Neman (Sweetgreen CEO) tells Bloomberg that before the cyclospora hit, Sweetgreen's transactions were improving sequentially month over month and were flat in June.
we did see sequential improvement month over month. And in June, transactions were flat.
Jonathan Neman (Sweetgreen CEO) tells Bloomberg the cyclospora scare began hurting Sweetgreen about 10 days into July and has had a huge impact on the current (Q3) quarter so far.
really began to impact us about 10 days into July, has a huge impact so far on the quarter.
Jonathan Neman (Sweetgreen CEO) tells Bloomberg the high end of Sweetgreen's guidance assumes traffic improves by the end of September, but he does not know how long the cyclospora impact on guests will last.
Our guide has it, you know, our high end of the guide has it getting better by, you know, the end of September. We're not sure how long it's going to impact guests
David Bahnsen (The Bahnsen Group) tells Bloomberg he likes Cisco's fiscal Q4 report with no big surprises, stressing that non-hyperscaler networking orders are also up substantially.
what we've seen so far we like. There's no big surprises to us.
David Bahnsen (The Bahnsen Group) tells Bloomberg Cisco's cybersecurity footprint is under-appreciated in its valuation and its cash flow will grow substantially over time.
But the cybersecurity element is going to touch all of these different things and they have a footprint there that is being under appreciated in valuation. Over time I think you're going to see that cash flow grow substantially.
David Bahnsen (The Bahnsen Group) tells Bloomberg the market has already rewarded Cisco's AI pivot (up over 60% YTD, ~74% in 12 months), so his firm took its weighting down while keeping the stock for its legacy cash flows and dividend.
The stock is up over 60 percent year to date. It was up I think 74 percent in the last 12 months. So we made a lot of money in this company and we took our waiting down.
David Bahnsen (The Bahnsen Group) tells Bloomberg that investors chasing Cisco as a hot AI stock should be uncomfortable that so much of it is now levered to the same AI story as everything else.
But for those chasing a hot stock growth I am not as comfortable with the fact that so much of it is now levered to the same story
Paul Meeks (Freedom Capital Markets) tells Bloomberg his firm has a Hold rating on Cerebras with a $209 price target, the lowest on the street, after two disappointing quarters as a public company.
So we've always had a hold rating on the stock and a 2 0 9 price target. Our price targets the low on the street.
Paul Meeks (Freedom Capital Markets) tells Bloomberg that Cerebras' capacity ramp in both hardware and neocloud will be rougher and more capital intensive than buy-side and sell-side investors expect.
I just think it's going to be rougher than buy side and sell side investors think in ramping up capacity
Paul Meeks (Freedom Capital Markets) tells Bloomberg he gives Cerebras the benefit of the doubt that its hardware revenue miss is temporary growing pains that were not well understood at the IPO.
I'll give them the benefit of the doubt. I think it's temporary growing pains
Thomas Hayes (Great Hill Capital) tells David Lin to ease out of the AI trade short term and move aggressively into a barbell of consumer staples/healthcare (defense) and consumer discretionary (offense), excluding utilities.
I think I would be easing up out of this AI trade in the short term. I would be easing into or aggressively moving into defensive consumer and offensive consumer, AKA consumer staples and consumer discretionary bet on the U.S. consumer here.
Thomas Hayes (Great Hill Capital) tells David Lin he cannot buy software stocks despite cheap free-cash-flow multiples because he cannot rule out AI fully disintermediating them within five years, even though he suspects the sell-off is overdone.
I just can't be damn certain this is not going to be fully disintermediated five years from now.
Thomas Hayes (Great Hill Capital) tells David Lin Diageo is his defensive-consumer pick and takes its next leg higher once the AI dead-cat bounce rolls over.
When that rolls back over, Diageo takes its next leg higher. So, so we, we love that trade.
Thomas Hayes (Great Hill Capital) tells David Lin Disney is his offensive-consumer pick, a cheap long-term play after a 50% sell-off given its IP library, packed parks and cash-flow-positive streaming.
So this is a cheap long-term play. This happens every 15, 20 years. The stock sells off 50%. Everyone says it's over and then they realize, oh my gosh, they have the greatest IP, uh, library in the history of mankind.
William Wilkes tells Bloomberg's Lizzie there is little evidence yet of a turnaround for BMW, Mercedes and Volkswagen in China; they are still playing catch-up.
But so far, unfortunately, there's little evidence of the turnaround.
Danny Lee (Bloomberg) tells Bonnie Quinn GM's EV bet has cost $11bn in write-downs on $35bn invested and has not paid off, hence the battery JV retreat.
The fact that it's had $11 billion of write downs and also the investment it has made 35 billion overall in EVs and it's really not paid off so far.
Nuttall tells caller Val to switch out of Tourmaline: it chased production growth into a collapsing gas price and he would need to be more bullish on gas to like it.
you would see that the stock's done pretty much nothing. This is a company where they have chased production growth to the demise of the gas price.
Nuttall tells caller Jim Tamarack Valley has 15-20% upside at $70 oil over a couple of years and ~50% (about $19-20/share) in three years at $80 oil.
a $19 to $20 a share price about two or three years from now. So let's call it 50 ish percent upside three years from now if you're a little more bullish on the oil price.
Nuttall tells BNN viewers top pick Cenovus is the cheapest quality large cap in North America with 50-60% upside ($54-55 at $70 oil, $62-63 at $80).
company with RockShaw, the balance sheet, extremely good management team, decades and decades worth of stay flat inventory, potentially 50, 60% upside from here.
Nuttall tells BNN viewers top pick Strathcona should pay about 10% a year in dividends (3% base plus 4-8% special) with production growth and oil leverage.
We would peg that at roughly a four to 8% special dividend. So that's 4% at $70, 8% at $80, plus their based yield now is about three ish. So you're going to get paid about 10% a year in dividends.
Tom Metcalf (Bloomberg) tells Bonnie Quinn Berkshire's $4.5bn buyback and ~$20bn equity buys are marginal against ~$400bn cash; much bigger moves are needed to dent the pile.
if you're hoping for Berkshire to really spend down its cash pile we're going to need to see a lot more kind of big swings than we've seen so far
Gene Munster of Deepwater tells CNBC Apple's staggered iPhone launches, with ~40% pushed to the March/June quarter next year, will benefit its bottom line.
But they're probably going to push another 40 percent into the March or June quarter of next year. You get some more juice out of September because people who can't hold off are going to upgrade to the more expensive phones, and then separately you get that extra boost next year.
George Arison tells Bloomberg Grindr's new premium AI tier (tested at $80/month, up to $375) will be the driver of the company's revenue growth in 2027 and 2028.
For us, we've said publicly, this is going to be the driver of revenue growth in 27 and 28.
George Arison tells Bloomberg Grindr is guiding to roughly a 42.5% margin for 2026 and would rather reinvest AI savings in product than push it higher.
I think we're guiding the year to be like what, 42 and a half.
Horacio Rozanski tells CNBC Booz Allen is bringing its agentic cybersecurity products to market in six months instead of two years, framed as new revenue streams for investors.
our AI driven, agentic cybersecurity products are so compelling that what was going to take two years to bring to market, we're doing in six months.
Nissan beat on cost cuts; top-line recovery arrives H2 of the fiscal year. EVENT: will, dated.
Yeah, I think so, and then particularly the first quarter and then probably second quarter, the earnings will be driven by the fixed cost reduction. So what we are waiting is a top line driven growth or recovery, which is not coming yet. It's going to be second half of this fiscal year.
Trackable sector stance: OW financials, industrials, health care; market-weight tech.
Absolutely. We've been recommending market weighting information technology since the end of last year. And I think on balance, that's actually worked out reasonably well. We've been recommending over weighting financials, industrials and health care. And that's worked out very well.
Ahead of Alphabet earnings that week. He says Third Bridge expert calls consistently find LLM usage is not yet displacing Google, alternatives 'aren't monetizing with advertising' @35:13, and 'it's going to take a number of quarters at this point' @35:24 before AI hits the model.
“it's not at this point disrupting or displacing Google. That might not happen for another couple of years.”
Asked about Morgan Stanley downgrading Adobe and Salesforce. He argues software is not a monolith: enterprise vendors selling need-to-have, data-heavy, trusted solutions who invest in their own AI will navigate AI disruption, and notes cybersecurity has traded very differently from application software in 2026.
“we think those companies are probably better positioned to kind of navigate the treacherous waters that AI has kind of put before them.”
Previewing Alphabet's earnings due after the close that day, asked whether the stock sells off no matter what. He also cautions that 'investor reactions to results at the moment are a little bit unpredictable' @7:51 and frames Alphabet as 'a bellwether for the full kind of AI value chain' @7:24.
“I think expectations are pretty robust for Google. So I think it would be quite hard for them to deliver something that's going to really give a significant incremental positive versus where market expectations are already.”
Soundbite in the market-open package ahead of Alphabet earnings 'after the closing bell today' @0:38. Clip begins 'Search revenue last quarter, strongest growth in years, we need to repeat that. That cloud segment last quarter shocked people with 63 percent' @0:44.
“I think the bar this quarter has got to be well north of 70 percent, and that backlog number that they talked about last quarter of 400 billion, that probably needs to continue to grow.”
Farnborough soundbite; Airbus also sold 100 A320neos to SMBC Aviation Capital and firmed Riyadh Air A350-1000 options, and the narration says Airbus claims the Middle East conflict has boosted demand for fuel-efficient aircraft. Dated corporate commitment: program launch 2030, entry into service in the second half of the 2030s.
“We have already said and we confirm that we want to launch the next generation single aisle in 2030 for an entry into service in the second head in second second in the second part of the next decade.”
He says he has been 'buying are cheap companies down the bottom of the chain' @16:15 at 'twos and three time sales' versus 20 to 40 times at the top, naming 'Cisco's and Hewlett Packard' @16:39 and IBM, which 'nobody thinks IBM is a good buy yet' @17:04 despite quantum computing.
“But nonetheless, they will absolutely knock their figures out of the ballpark over the next two or three years, because they've got an incredibly valuable thing that AI can't have or do. And that's trust.”
First of her three picks. 'They just reported great earnings' @5:21; 'I think that is a great stock' @5:37; adds they are putting AI to work on cost efficiency @5:52.
“They are in a turnaround story for over a year now. Stock has not done well, but it is coming back. And I think overall, they're very efficient in their cost management now.”
Second pick, after 'stellar earnings' and strong trading revenue @6:09. She continues that 'Entropic and OpenAI lined up for IPO-ing' (whisper garble of Anthropic) is 'very, very good for these large investment banks' @6:34.
“it's kind of a backdoor play to the whole AI game here, right? When we think of all the IPO activity with SpaceX earlier, where Goldman played a huge role”
Third pick: digital infrastructure firm letting companies 'tap in their existing data centers and use their compute power without them really needing to put the CapEx to the ground' @7:05; partnerships with Cisco and Nvidia @6:57.
“So, I think that is a great opportunity, especially when we see more scrutiny on these firms of how they're using their CapEx and how they're using their spend. This is a company that can really benefit from that.”
'fees from the M&A activities and trading continue to be pretty strong, not just in North America but the markets around the world' @53:58; 'delivers that nice combination of slight defensiveness, evaluation appeal, and the earnings stability' @54:15, favored 'alongside... emerging markets' into H2.
“So in fact, the financial sector is one of the sectors that we like. The valuation is quite compelling.”
Stockton points to rotation out of semis into software and defensives; REITs 'trying to break out,' good technical setups in healthcare, REITs, utilities, and 'very strong' relative insurers with many bottom-up breakouts.
“there are even still breakouts underway in some defensive areas of the markets. Even the REIT sector looks like it's trying to break out.”
Follows host noting KBW bank index up ~15% YTD and outperforming post-earnings. She adds 'And I believe it is a very solid sector for the near term' (@29:37), citing AI-financing demand, creative investment banking, and high trading volumes.
“So I would say all of that is pointing very much towards the banks. They're not overstretched. They're well capitalized”
Asked whether small-cap leadership (even loss-making names, best year since 2003) is froth. She frames breadth as 'so much healthier than the concentration we saw earlier' (@26:40), while noting $8T in money-market cash needing a home.
“So i'm going to go with it being a sign of healthy healthy risk appetite and not over exuberance”
H1 output up 15% y/y; targets 'around 170 aircraft for 2026' (as transcribed; number likely garbled) and 'close to rate 75 or at rate 75 for the end of next year' (@38:13). Backlog of more than 9,200 aircraft; says Middle East crisis is fueling demand for fuel-efficient jets.
“So there is absolutely no doubt in my perspective that we'll get to the rate 75”
Clarifies entry into service 'in the second part of the next decade' (@39:52) with ~25% fuel-burn benefit (@40:05); engine choice (open rotor vs geared turbofan) to be decided 'the next couple of years'. Boeing's Ortberg, same show, says Boeing is 'probably not now financially' ready (@80:44).
“We have already said and we confirm that we want to launch the next generation single aisle In 2030 for an entry into service in the second head in second second”
Calls it 'a super resilient market... We forecast that the market is going to continue to be strong' (@77:39) despite Brent at $90 and the Iran conflict; 737 rate now 47/month with 'aspirations to get to 63 a month' (@76:55). Show intro paraphrases the figure as 40,000 (@12:08); CEO's on-tape number is 44,000.
“We just came out with the new forecast for overall aircraft growth and we see 44 000 airplanes in the next 20 years”
'The fight' = the post-Covid existential question of whether people keep going to theaters: 'people love to go to movie theaters and Hollywood is responding' (@19:55). Backed by Odyssey's $124M domestic open (4.3M AMC guests) and AMC's record Q2 (EBITDA ~$321M, +70% y/y). Trailing segment garbles ('for the best of guys').
“I think we've won that fight. And if you look at the size of the box office this year, it clearly is going to be the biggest post-pandemic year”
Answering Kernen's question about past dilution and debt: quarter ended with '$778 million of cash on hand, and we have no significant debt majorities [maturities] prior to 2029' (@27:47); record revenue/EBITDA quarter in AMC's 106-year history; H1 EBITDA more than 2.5x last year. Note: a cold-open teaser of this line exists at 24:34/14:33 in the pod intro block.
“maybe it's not just time to talk about survival, it's time to talk about thriving, and that's the mission that we're now focused on going forward”
He argues the run 'is actually in its 16th month' since 'the tariff tantrum in April of last year' @0:31 and is not a head fake ('I don't think this is a head fake' @0:27); drivers are Fed easing, AI hard-asset demand, reshoring, deregulation and 100% capex expensing.
“so if earnings lead the market which I believe they do I think you're going to Be in a sweet spot here with small caps for a period of time”
Baseline he cites: 'we had negative earnings in small caps for 23 and 24' and roughly six months into 2025 @0:44, with earnings only turning positive at the end of 2025.
“the outlook is pretty positive and we think it's going to continue to Actually be in line perhaps even potentially better than large-cap earnings by the end of this year into 2027”
Based on 'everything happens in ten ten year segments' in Russell/CRSP data @2:49: 'We're coming to the end of a ten year period of outperformance of large cap' @2:54. He adds investors are underexposed: 'flows into the ETF the small cap ETF continue to be negative' @4:45, and 'you're at the beginning of what could be a prolonged small cap cycle' @5:56.
“and the small caps tend to outperform when they start to Outperform will outperform for a decade and I think that's where we are”
He predicts 'a shakeout in capacity in Europe as a result of what's going on in the Middle East' @1:19: rivals lack Ryanair's cost base and balance sheet, while Ryanair is 'now effectively debt free' after paying down a $1.2B bond in May @1:29. Confirms to the host that failures means bankruptcies but says he is not interested in buying other airlines @1:58.
“So I think once you get into the kind of winter period, some of the weaker carriers are going to find it very difficult and we may see some failures over the next number of months”
Logic: 'you're going to see capacity coming out of the market. M&A is continuing across Europe. There's going to be failures.' @3:28. Whisper garbles 'on further' (likely 'on fares') and 'pricing way and that's up'; the directional meaning: fares biased higher as capacity exits: is clear from the exchange on pricing.
“That means there's more risk to the upside than the downside on further. So I think when you kind of look beyond this year into next year and beyond pricing way and that's up”
Built on 300 MAX-10s 'due to start delivering from January of next year' @2:17, bought at COVID prices. Near-term guidance on tape too: 'We'll grow overall by about 4% this year to 216 million passengers' @1:10.
“That's going to see us grow to 300 million passengers per annum over the next decade. So by March 2034, we'll be carrying over 300 million passengers across Europe every year.”
At Farnborough he announced exercising options on 28 Boeing 787s (20 of them -10s) and six A350-1000s @0:22; says US service comes 'very, very soon' with 'partner Delta will be connecting into Riyadh from October of this year' @3:11, and answers 'We're bang on target' @4:18 to the host's garbled '20, 300 destinations' (2030) question. Says the Iran war has not dented bookings ('Up to now, no') though established carriers have seen impact.
“now, no, but we're playing a long game. This is how we build up to 100 cities, international cities within five years”
Positioning talk: I'm selling down my big tech @52:10; he stays invested (I'm always in the market @49:28) but is de-risking: I'm trying to set myself up for a 20 to 30% decline, not 120% decline, which is what I experienced in the dot com @63:04, and When this collapse, which is coming, it's probably not a collapse, a drawdown of AI happens. There's nowhere to hide @62:53. He admits possible sour grapes for passing on Anthropic at a $20 billion valuation @52:21.
“As a general theme, if I could go long a basket of stocks, would be GLP-1. And if I could go short a basket, it's AI.”
Offered as the one sector not levered to the AI trade: I'll give you one sector he says stands outside the AI trade and 'hasn't been getting love' @62:03, and I think that is a sector that has not infused AI at all yet. And perhaps maybe they will, at which point you will start to see some real returns @62:12.
“It was one of my picks at the beginning of the year. I'm gonna stick to it. It's the healthcare sector.”
Host: 'Dave, by the way, is the name Europe big and you're buying more in a dip. You think it's a $2,000 stock?' Jackson: 'I do' @3:26. He frames Dave as 'in some ways an AI play' @3:27 disrupting payday borrowing via cashflow underwriting, and says he first pitched it around $165 in the spring @4:04.
“We're at about 450 now, but they are just getting started. I see this as a long-term $2,000 play for me and I'm sticking with it.”
He pitches Nextdoor as an AI play on proprietary neighborhood data: 'look for the companies that have access to proprietary data' @5:16, with 15 years of neighborhood information that merged with AI 'creates products that haven't existed before' @5:40.
“So watch the name like NXDR to continue to kind of start to inflect here. And they've got tons of cash on their balance sheet. It's a very cheaply priced company.”
Jason cites Mark Gurman's report that the coming M7 Ultra could support 1.5TB RAM, letting Opus-class local models run on a Mac Studio, putting downward pressure on Claude/OpenAI and letting Apple 'run the table on AI.'
“I think Apple is a screaming buy right now. And that's not financial advice.”
Asked if Palantir is 'still the Messi of AI,' Ives says Karp is 'playing a different game,' that Palantir's every post-IPO quarter has been strong, and that the software/commercial story is 'still to come.'
“I think Palantir, it's hard to say that the AI revolution happens without a name like Palantir.”
Asked what he's actively avoiding. Earlier: 'We've talked about how you can't view Adobe and Salesforce past the next three years.' @15:49. Host underlines it as a held-steady structural view, 'more of a structural change than... a sell off that is somewhat temporary.' Whisper renders 'seat-based' as 'seed-based': kept verbatim.
“I still have no interest in SaaS seed-based software, so a lot of people are trying to pick bottoms in that.”
Asked for one stock he likes, Cook names 'Talon Metals Corp, T-L-O' @17:02: Michigan nickel-copper-PGM deposit plus a Minnesota discovery 'exceptionally rich' in nickel and platinum-group metals, all US critical minerals, with permitting 'mostly in hand' @18:07. Later: 'that's something I would be adding to' @19:07. Teaser duplicate 'There's one stock that you like' at 0:22.
“But it just seems like a great-- it is a fantastic deposit. It's growing exceptionally high grade and as your chart shows, it's come off markedly from $9. So I like this one a lot.”
Netflix fell 7.25% after mixed Q2 results with slow-growth guidance; Blackledge, answering the anchor's 'overreaction?' framing, notes the stock was already down 40% over 12 months into the print.
“I do. I mean, it was definitely mixed, but down over 11 percent pre-market, when sentiment was weak going in, stock down 40 percent over the past 12 months pre-open, it feels a little overdone.”
Aired after a week in which the Nasdaq dropped almost 3%; anchor frames him as 'still bullish' on the tech trade ('Evaluation' is whisper's rendering of 'valuation').
“Evaluation for software has become a lot more attractive here. So I think that not all software companies are positioned similarly.”
Her coined 'vanity trade': GLP-1 sales heading toward $50B this year with ripple effects into beauty, apparel and fitness. Levels: Ulta 'if it gets through $480 and then back through $500, that's telling you people are going back to beauty' @18:30; Novo Nordisk reclaimed 50; on e.l.f. and peers: 'if we hold here, they seem undervalued to me.' @19:21. Estee Lauder noted as 'a Michael Burry pick' basing out.
“And you say $50 billion, I think that may just be nothing compared to where it's going to go.”
On Zuckerberg's reported offer to sell excess compute: bulls read it as opportunistic monetization, bears as overbuild regret; Kevin thinks 'a mix of a little bit of both,' credits Meta's cancellation clauses on off-balance-sheet leases as 'great' for Meta but likely to 'leave a lot of bag holders' among leased-compute providers.
“I personally only care about it from the point of view of how AI makes advertising better which I think is massive and I only like it from the advertising point of view”
Said right after Netflix's Q2 miss (revenue ~-0.6%, EPS ~-3.8% per his figures) and engagement worries; he frames ad revenue as a new growth vertical still 'insignificant' vs total revenue, taking time to show up, with a PEG caveat if growth keeps slowing.
“I still think that is a sleeper stock for advertising. I expect their advertising revenues to frankly double for multiple years in a row.”
'advertising, frankly, recession or not, is going to be one of those sectors that just absolutely dominates with the power of artificial intelligence' @7:31: AI extracting 'any kind of penny out of the consumer that they have left.' Google also praised as 'another fantastic advertiser' now at a 1.3 PEG.
“So I'm really bullish on things like AppLovin or Meta.”
On the day's tech-to-consumer rotation, after his Target-at-$86 call 'almost doubled': consumer names are 'really a cool medium term like hide from AI' @5:54, but 'if AI goes to crap, the consumer is going to go to random crap' @6:02; cites 13% of card balances 90-day delinquent (Q1 2026, highest in 15 years) and chargebacks +29% since 2021 as consumer stress.
“I don't necessarily think that goes on forever. I don't think they're a 10-year play”
Walmart is his named hot pick: 'So Costco and Walmart have been key ideas in this K-shaped paradigm' @1:39; AI evidence: Sparky assistant used by 'as many as half of them mobile app users' with 'average order sizes over 30% higher' @2:40, plus share gains with 'higher household income consumers' @3:09 and 'as we think about AI, first-party data is so important and the Walmart Plus membership flywheel and ecosystem will be increasingly important' @3:31.
“And as you think about Walmart as a tech company, digital advertising is fueling outsized growth as this is growing 20% plus and it comes at very high margin.”
Answering whether the premium multiple still has room to run: 'Renewal rates are very high at 91 to 92 percent' @4:38 and 'traffic has been exceptional as well at plus four to six percent. That's very distinguished from a sector that's been tougher' @4:45.
“But Costco is delivering on outstanding growth, double-digit growth, and even better growth on their e-commerce division with lots of good things on the horizon, including global growth”
His third named pick ('Richmont' = Richemont): 'jewelry is really working' @6:36, helped by gold - 'Richmont's done a good job not overly raising prices and gold's prices have been rising faster' @6:43 - while 'What's been softer is handbags' @6:55 and 'China's been tougher, but China's been getting better' @7:01.
“bottom line on Richmont, the hard luxury story, the jewelry, the watches, the power brands of Van Cleef and Cartier really working here to distinguish the growth.”
Ahead of Netflix's report after the 7/16 close; anchor frames it: investors waiting to see 'how soft the viewing numbers might be' after a Q2 price increase, with subscribers downgrading or canceling (@2:27).
“We do think that probably caused some downgrades. Our work suggested that 18 percent of U.S. subscribers downgraded. I've seen some other third party work suggesting it's more than that.”
On Netflix's just-released Q2: 'The market was widely expecting a miss and a lower, and the market got a miss and a lower' (@1:15) but 'there wasn't any slippage in engagement' (@1:24). Stock down more than 30% over three months, volatile after hours.
“I kind of think this is an at par quarter. Bar was low and they may have tripped over it.”
'you still have, I think, four of the eight publicly traded U.S. airlines that are likely to lose money this year. That's not a sustainable long-term position' @6:14; 'it's just economic gravity' @6:29; 'I know investors are worried about fourth quarter capacity. It always does. That's the history' @6:45.
“but loss making capacity does come out of the industry. I think schedules are going to come down in the fourth quarter.”
After 'exceptional' Q2 bank results: 'in the absence of a market correction, a significant one and or economic weakness, it's not clear that there's anything that's near us that is going to derail this train' @36:34-36:47; he concedes 'there is a risk of complacency' @36:50 and flags funding-cost pressure and ever-higher comps as the watch items @37:23-38:44.
“But again, it is, you look at the backdrop and it doesn't seem like there 's anything that's really going to derail this train at this point.”
'there's too much focus on the financial margin and not enough focus on the revenue growth' @39:15; 'I think the results improve into the second half of the year. And the stock, the valuation is at a bit of a discount to their peers' @39:32-39:42; also 'PNC had good numbers as well. So we're generally constructive' @39:59.
“So it is still our top pick. But we like the group broadly. We like the regional banks here.”
'This was a really good quarter. It was that they didn't raise their full year profitability target' @40:46-40:51 (11% ROTCE guide vs 13% delivered in H1); he reads the guidance hold as front-loading investor-day investments that 'position them well to maintain what has been really good business momentum' @41:36-41:43.
“And I don't think there is an issue with I think what they're doing is they 're taking advantage of the strong results and investing, investing for growth”
Answering the future-leadership question: 'We like growth, probably a tad more than value here, but it doesn't mean you want to go all in on either one' @1:07; 'the reality is price stay in the cyclical things, but don't go all in any one sector' @1:37. He cites the day's breadth (tech down ~3% while seven sectors higher, healthcare +2%) as evidence the broadening is real.
“We kind of have a barbelled approach. We like tech a little bit overweight, yes, but industrials and financials on the other side make a lot of sense.”
Overweight per host intro. On credit: 'Every quarter we kind of look for cracks' yet net charge-offs 'are flat to down this quarter' (@20:18); expects 'the best long growth quarter in the last few years' (@20:59) and continued wealth-management asset growth 'as long as the markets hold up' (@18:49).
“Yeah, listen, we think there's a very strong secular growth story tied to the wealth management business.”
Multipolar world means 'defense spending going up globally' routed into local supply chains (@44:49); prefers 'the parts manufacturers, the equipment manufacturers' over the defense primes (@45:16). Aired as Trump spoke at a Pennsylvania defense-investment summit.
“But if you look at airspace and defense as kind of the share of overall private markets activity, it is still quite small. So I wouldn't call this a stretched trade just yet.”
Reacting to United's Q2 beat/narrowed guidance: network carriers' premium-cabin and co-branded-card 'de-risking strategy... is a big deal and it's tangible' (@60:44), with United trailing-12-month cash flow up 361% vs 2021; the condition: 'so long as the equity market continues to do reasonably well that segment of society is going to continue to spend' (@62:57).
“And as long as that holds up and that spending holds up I think the big three can continue down this path.”
After calling the quarter almost a perfect storm of good economic backdrop, high real rates and booming deal-making (@16:40), he flags the peak: continued growth is hard to envision and deposit cost pressure is the mundane risk: If that starts to eat away at the net interest income growth in the second half of the year and next year, that's also something that could derail the positive thesis @23:33, citing Wells Fargo's funding-cost concerns. On AI in banks he adds excess returns can last a long time and first movers could have significant advantages here @26:47.
“It is hard to envision, you know, continued growth off of the base we're on.”
Reacting to Warren Buffett picking Alphabet as a winner, Ives says 'A year ago, the New York City cab driver was Barish on it' @3:01 (garble of bearish) and frames Alphabet as one of the 'valuation names that you could rationalize in AI' @3:14 for value buyers like Berkshire.
“This is a perfect example. That fits well in, and they are at the epicenter of the build out, and especially when it comes on search.”
Clip follows BlackRock and Morgan Stanley earnings, with Morgan Stanley posting record profit; he notes MS and Goldman are 'the same exact chart' on a one-year basis @2:29 despite being rivals.
“I mean, basically, they're the two ways that you want to just leverage all of this capital raising and deployment in AI.”
Asked point-blank if he would buy Apple at $313 (host cites ~$5T cap; KeyBank sell/$250 vs Citigroup $365 on the tape): 'Sorry if I wasn't clear. I would not.' (@7:32); not a short either: 'I wouldn't say it's a short at this point' (@9:21); 2027 estimates 'hinge on how big is this foldable phone' at $2,000+ (@7:07); credits part of the run to rotation toward Apple as the big name NOT spending capex on AI (@6:47)
On Meta's 15% stock surge after its Muse Spark 1.1 model release and compute-licensing rumors. He argues the model is 'somewhat of a commodity', Meta hasn't cracked consumer AI ('if META can't crack it... then who will' @13:34), and the rally likely reflects hopes of licensing excess compute rather than product success.
“And for the time being, it's not going to be able to really make use of all those data centers. It built in anticipation of the demand for this product taking off until it's able to figure this out.”
“But really the catalyst here is they've got a number of projects that they've been building the backlog that are going to come online in the next year or two.”
“Yum Brands is showing within their Taco Bell franchise good organic growth. They are divesting Pizza Hut. We should see potentially a divestiture announcement over the next three months.”
Pre-announcing a distribution increase and index addition
“So this year will actually be our fifth year of increasing distributions, which, you know, when we when we make that announcement later this year, that will get us qualified to be added to the dividend aristocrats index in January of next year”
Asked about 38% of the portfolio in Alphabet, Amazon and Meta: “I would say we don't share that concern at all. One, the kind of valuations of the companies have come down significantly. And meanwhile, their growth rates are accelerating”
Galloway tells Elson that at $4 a share and about $9 billion market cap Snap is a decent buy, since the core platform is a great business once the wearables effort is spun or shut.
at $4 a share and $9 billion or whatever it is in market cap, I actually think Snap's a pretty decent buy right now.
Asked whether Mag 7 stocks should be the source of funds for buying SpaceX/OpenAI/Anthropic IPOs. She adds 'Index investing itself is a little bit backward-looking' @18:19 and calls Mag 7 'a natural place to make room' @18:34. Separately she worries about equity supply: hyperscalers shifting from buybacks to issuance 'the market hasn't been trained on that' @17:43 (sic 5:43).
“My personal take is that they should be I think these are companies that you know They're they're large, but they're not necessarily where the future is”
Todd 'Bubba' Horwitz tells Kitco Apple is getting beaten down enough that he would take a look at buying it if it gets back to 270.
Apple's getting into that point where it's pretty well beaten down. I mean, it's down about 10 bucks today, down 11. 11.29 today. It gets back to 270. I take a look at it.
Michael Oliver tells Kitco the bank index is barely above 2022 levels and the financial sector broadly looks very weak, signalling credit problems.
It's 5% higher in the bank index than it was in 2022. 5%, wow, big deal, okay? Something's wrong, okay? And the financial sector broadly looks very weak.
Chamath Palihapitiya tells All-In that despite flashing macro signals there are pockets of the market worth owning for 10 years (five or fewer names) and everything else should not be speculated in.
I think there's pockets of the market that still make sense that you can underwrite if you wanna buy businesses that represent the future.
Jason Calacanis tells All-In that the future is local models on powerful desktop hardware and Apple is his stock pick for the next year.
I think the future of this is gonna be local models running on extraordinary desktop hardware. And if you have employees on this level of hardware running these models local, like I have started to do, they become 10 times more valuable than the employees not running it. I think Apple is my choice for the next year.
Gerstner asks how confident he is the $400B RPO turns into revenue over the next couple of years. Nadella: 'we are spending the capital out clear with high certainty that we just need to clear backlog.' @46:47; calls the backlog diversified across 1P and 3P, excluding OpenAI's additional $250B Azure commitment which 'will have a longer duration.'
“Yeah, that $400 billion has a very short duration, as Amy explained. It's the two year duration on average. So that's definitely our intent.”