AI, Jobs & Productivity

…'s not in the US. Maybe we're getting to some consensus here. Job displacement versus job loss. Here is Brett Adcock sharing what they 're doing at Figure. They had an eight- hour challenge to have this robot they're building stored packages, and they did it for 200 hours. That's today. This is the least good it will ever be. This is the worst it's going to ever be. These things are getting really good. I spent time with Elon. I've looked at Optimus. I can tell you Optimus is better than what Figure is doing. What Optimus is going to do when Bezos and Andy Jassy are the least optimists inside of the Amazon factories is it's going to get rid of every-- let me state this very clearly-- every single package sorting, every single package delivery will not be done by humans in 10 years. And it's starting today, just like the idea that you would put together some of this consumer electronic stuff in factories with humans has gone away over time. And other countries-- I think you're making a very good point here, Sacks-- are going to experience it first. In America, knowledge workers, the entrepreneurial spirit, I think we 're going to see a Cambrian explosion in startups, which means we're going to be the ones who benefit from it. But if you're looking at those other countries, they'll see it acutely first. We're just going to see it here with drivers, and that's 5, 10 million people, like we saw it with cashiers. The idea of going to a cash ier at a fast food restaurant, which I know you guys don't…From: this video · 12 claims mined from it

…In markets where Waymo has hit critical mass, the number of human drivers is going down. That's just a fact. And they're literally stop recruiting. In some narrow arbitrarily defined subset of their jobs, you're pointing to flatness. Exactly. Meanwhile, Dara told us that hiring a cost to the company has gone up in the face of these trends. That's at the company, not the drivers. No. No, you're wrong. Okay. Anyway, we'll agree to disagree here. Let me give you some actual data. Can I provide us this study? So RAMP and Revelio Labs just released a new study in the past week. Yeah, that was great. And it was an actual study of over 21, 000 firms in the US. And they looked at their payroll data combined with their spending on AI. And what they saw is that firms that spent the most on AI actually grew the fastest. And they tended to grow their head count roughly 10% in the two years following the adoption of AI. And entry level head count rose even faster . It grew at 12%. So all this stuff about how entry level head count is going to get wiped out, not true. The more firms adopted AI, the more hiring they did, at least that was a correlation. Obviously, they can't prove causation, but that was the correlation. And then companies that were not high intensity adopters of AI, they either didn't adopt or they were low intensity adopters, they just saw flatness in their head count. So no…From: this video · 12 claims mined from it

…do work. Okay. But do you think cabs and cities are not going to be self-driving? Do you think Zipline's not going to deliver your food? You're doing the Montanbailey thing again, JCal. It's not Montanbailey. I see this from my investments. I have a company, Autolane, that is doing this right now. But just go to customer support again, because you've been saying, yeah. I literally, we've had this debate ver batim and- Well, displacement, not job loss is my only point. Yeah, yeah, yeah. What Freiburg is pointing out is that whenever anyone pushes back on the fact that you don't have any data to support this in the present, you say you're talking about the future. Okay, fine. It's a prediction. There's no data to support it in the present. That's fine. You're saying it's going to happen in the future. No, no. I'll give you the data point. Oh, you will? You can dismiss what I want. I will. Yes. If you talk to Uber and Waymo, in the cities where Waymo is present and has gotten past a couple of hundred cars, they've stopped recruiting drivers. Drivers are either static or going down in those markets. So that is absolute evidence that this is happening and the rollout is going to be fast and furious. So it is not a future prediction. You can talk to the CEO of Waymo, you can talk to the CEO of Lyft and Uber, and they will tell you this explicitly. That's called marketing. I remember that. We interviewed Darren. He said jobs were increasing at Uber. Yeah. Because you're talking about more . Because productivity is going up with delivery. Productivity goes up. So it means people drive more. I'm not lying. You 're being disingenuous. No. The last time we interviewed Darren , on stage, he said jobs were going up. In markets where Waymo is, in markets where Waymo is, there might be other…From: this video · 12 claims mined from it

…below, well below. In fact, less than half the 4.2% CPI metric. And on the next chart, you can see the core inflation as measured by true flation is down in the low 1% range. Again, maybe this is what long-term treasury yields are looking at, or at least one of the signals are looking at, and why the yield curve is flattening out again. So on the next slide, you can see, we 'll get into employment. This employment number was crazy. So household employment was down roughly 500,000. Warm payroll employment was up maybe 57 ,000, roughly half of what economists expected. So on that score, it was a very weak report. You can see on this chart, rarely does this measure of employment decline in the absence of a recession, which you can see in the shaded areas. So what might be going on here is that companies are not hiring as rapidly as they once did, and they are relying more on AI, and…From: this video · 4 claims mined from it

…Julia Borson joins us now with more hi hey Scott some headlines leaking out from a meta internal town hall they're being reported by Reuters right now Reuters saying that Zuckerberg said that the 2026 reorganization of the company wasn't as clean as it could have been and also saying this internal town hall that AI agent development over the last four months has not accelerated in the way we expected this is a continuation of some commentary we've heard from him in the past he said that in this town hall according to this report and Reuters that top executives were worried in early 2026 that we weren't going to move fast enough and that the best the company made on its organization have not come to fruition just yet so see meta shares now trading down around four and a half percent we have reached out…From: this video · 1 claim mined from it

…going to crosscheck the government data against private data and probably introduce more private data sources into the Fed's own research. The fourth is productivity and jobs during this transformation, as he calls it, acknowledging that we are in a technology revolution and that productivity probably is accelerating and that government statistics are not picking this up correctly. So productivity is about 2.9% on a year -over-year basis right now. We think it's going to accelerate into the 5% to 6% range. This year is going to be a little confusing because productivity a year ago was negative in the first quarter. So that 2.9% is against a negative, but then there are two very big comparisons . The rapid growth in productivity last year was pretty astonishing, I think, as many people were delaying hiring and using more AI. And that should be even more the case, but there are going to be tough comparisons, so I just wanted to cite that as we…From: this video · 4 claims mined from it