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Where they stand
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Post-debut-earnings: negative FCF revisions plus this week's lockup. EVENT: will, dated 3-12 months.
But, you know, for a while, we're going to have this free cash flow pressure on stock and the stock's going to trade off that and lock up expirations for the near term. And, you know, make could be the near medium term, like we could be talking three to three to 12 months.
Negative $30-40bn FCF this year, ~negative $100bn next; $45bn backlog is the way out. EVENT: will, dated.
I mean, there's always a balance in for the foreseeable future. You've got sharply negative free cash flow at SpaceX, not just 30, 40 billion this year, but like 100 billion next year. That's a tough thing to work through. But again, once you get once you get some conviction that those numbers can hold and aren't going to get worse, and then you start seeing this backlog, it's got to get much higher than where it is now. But it's still an impressive forty five billion dollar backlog for SpaceX.
BullDeals
leaning · 2026-08-05
$100bn ARR near end-2026; trillion-by-2030 explicitly uncertain. EVENT: will, dated.
And whether they get to a trillion in revenue by 2030, I don't know. I'm not sure anybody can have that much confidence in it, but it's going to be, you know, they're going to be several hundred billion in revenue and they're going to reach that ARR level pretty close to the end of this year. That hundred billion level, that's really impressive.
Soundbite in the market-open package ahead of Alphabet earnings 'after the closing bell today' @0:38. Clip begins 'Search revenue last quarter, strongest growth in years, we need to repeat that. That cloud segment last quarter shocked people with 63 percent' @0:44.
“I think the bar this quarter has got to be well north of 70 percent, and that backlog number that they talked about last quarter of 400 billion, that probably needs to continue to grow.”
On Netflix's just-released Q2: 'The market was widely expecting a miss and a lower, and the market got a miss and a lower' (@1:15) but 'there wasn't any slippage in engagement' (@1:24). Stock down more than 30% over three months, volatile after hours.
“I kind of think this is an at par quarter. Bar was low and they may have tripped over it.”
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