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Matt Bloxham
Bloomberg Intelligence
First call on the ledger
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else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
On the day MoonShot's Kimi K3 'is sinking AI and semiconductor stocks' (host @0:00), Bloxham says it is 'going to, I think, create pressure for those big U.S. model developers like anthropic open AI and Google' @1:06, while noting it's 'still early days' on how good the model is @0:25.
“corporates are getting increasingly sensitive and focused around the cost of using AI models. So anything that can potentially deliver similar or equivalent performance for substantially less money is going to become more popular.”
On the Gemini delay: 'I don't think it's too serious' @2:21; 'a lot of people had written Google off... But that's not been the case. So I think, you know, Google is going to continue to be a strong player' @3:15-3:25.
“I think we will see Google come out with this product relatively soon. And I think it's going to be competitive enough to keep them in the mix with open AI and anthropic.”
Answering 'Is there any crack in this story?' after TSMC raised 2026 revenue growth guidance to 40%+ in USD terms vs the market's ~35-36% @7:10-7:17. He flags 'token maxing' - enterprises 'burning through their budgets quicker than they thought' @8:24 - as the risk that could 'take the shine of some of these capital spending plans' @8:40. In his second hit he notes hyperscaler capex over $700 billion this year with the market 'already expecting that to go to $900 billion or more next year' @24:47.
“I think right now, no, but I think if there is going to be a crack, it remains this kind of theme around the sustainability of enterprise demand.”
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