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9 directional calls with a price to read (6 bullish, 3 bearish). 1 week later, with the call in 1 of 7; 1 month later, with the call in 1 of 4. Prices as of 2026-09-10. Three fixed windows, the same for every call, always shown together: one week, one month, three months after the first close that followed the tape. What the market did, not a score: a call can have a different horizon, and a view with no number or deadline is never graded here.
Nasdaq from 2026-06-22 to 2026-09-10 · ▲ bullish · ▼ bearish · dot = the close that day
Date
Market
Call
What was said
1 week
1 month
3 months
2026-09-10
anchor: next close
Nasdaq
Bullish
They recently upgraded their full year guidance and they're continuing to struggle to kind of build enough capacity to meet that demand. I think it's going to be a multi year imbalance between demand and supply.
And if they can fund it, they've raised a lot of debt. There's an equity raise out there too, which is potentially dilutive. So I think that there's a question there about the funding as well.
But I think that that that whole kind of upward pressure and memory pricing is still very much there. And it's still going to kind of populate through the market and in numbers in the second half of the year.
And it just kind of adds to this complex circular economy that we have building around AI and potentially I think raises some questions about the possibility of systemic risk somewhere down the line.
“I think expectations are pretty robust for Google. So I think it would be quite hard for them to deliver something that's going to really give a significant incremental positive versus where market expectations are already.”
“corporates are getting increasingly sensitive and focused around the cost of using AI models. So anything that can potentially deliver similar or equivalent performance for substantially less money is going to become more popular.”
“I think we will see Google come out with this product relatively soon. And I think it's going to be competitive enough to keep them in the mix with open AI and anthropic.”
Matt Bloxham tells the anchor TSMC's demand is not slowing, it cannot build capacity fast enough, and the chip demand-supply imbalance will last multiple years.
They recently upgraded their full year guidance and they're continuing to struggle to kind of build enough capacity to meet that demand. I think it's going to be a multi year imbalance between demand and supply.
Matt Bloxham tells the anchor Oracle faces open questions on delivering its data-centre build-out and funding it, having raised heavy debt with a potentially dilutive equity raise pending.
And if they can fund it, they've raised a lot of debt. There's an equity raise out there too, which is potentially dilutive. So I think that there's a question there about the funding as well.
Matt Bloxham (Bloomberg Intelligence) tells Guy Johnson that OpenAI has had to accelerate its enterprise pivot because Anthropic, with its enterprise focus, has overtaken it.
OpenAI has had to kind of turbocharge its development path this year because it's been overtaken by Anthropic. The difference there has been this focus on enterprise
Matt Bloxham (Bloomberg Intelligence) tells Guy Johnson the expected IPO order has flipped and the smart money now has Anthropic listing before OpenAI.
I think that the smart money right now would be on Anthropic coming first and OpenAI following.
Matt Bloxham (Bloomberg Intelligence) tells Guy Johnson that with no profits, OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will be valued on EV/sales as SpaceX was, so near-term revenue figures drive the multiple.
enterprise value to sales is the multiple in which these values would get struck. That's how deals will get struck. That's how SpaceX happened. It's how anthropic will go. That's how open AI will go.
Matt Bloxham (Bloomberg Intelligence) tells Guy Johnson China has a big development gap versus AMAT/ASML-level fab equipment and a narrower gap at the model and chip level.
there's a big kind of development gap more much more the model and perhaps even at the kind of actual chip and there's a narrower gap but they're still heavily reliant on European and US technology for the actual kind of fab stuff
Matt Bloxham (Bloomberg Intelligence) tells Lacqua memory-chip price pressure is still there and will show up in company numbers in H2 2026.
But I think that that that whole kind of upward pressure and memory pricing is still very much there. And it's still going to kind of populate through the market and in numbers in the second half of the year.
Matt Bloxham (Bloomberg Intelligence) tells Bonnie Quinn the AI economy is hungry for capital and, judging by the Nvidia $500bn platform, Intel and Google raises, the capital is there.
So I think generally that the AI economy is hungry for capital and the capital seems to be there.
Matt Bloxham tells Bonnie Quinn the Nvidia financing platform deepens AI's circular financing and raises questions about systemic risk down the line.
And it just kind of adds to this complex circular economy that we have building around AI and potentially I think raises some questions about the possibility of systemic risk somewhere down the line.
Matt Bloxham tells Bonnie Quinn Apple's near-term access to CXMT chips is limited because CXMT prioritizes Chinese customers; it is a long-term diversification play.
their ability to tap into this company as a near term supply could be limited because that company is prioritizing local Chinese manufacturers
Previewing Alphabet's earnings due after the close that day, asked whether the stock sells off no matter what. He also cautions that 'investor reactions to results at the moment are a little bit unpredictable' @7:51 and frames Alphabet as 'a bellwether for the full kind of AI value chain' @7:24.
“I think expectations are pretty robust for Google. So I think it would be quite hard for them to deliver something that's going to really give a significant incremental positive versus where market expectations are already.”
On the day MoonShot's Kimi K3 'is sinking AI and semiconductor stocks' (host @0:00), Bloxham says it is 'going to, I think, create pressure for those big U.S. model developers like anthropic open AI and Google' @1:06, while noting it's 'still early days' on how good the model is @0:25.
“corporates are getting increasingly sensitive and focused around the cost of using AI models. So anything that can potentially deliver similar or equivalent performance for substantially less money is going to become more popular.”
On the Gemini delay: 'I don't think it's too serious' @2:21; 'a lot of people had written Google off... But that's not been the case. So I think, you know, Google is going to continue to be a strong player' @3:15-3:25.
“I think we will see Google come out with this product relatively soon. And I think it's going to be competitive enough to keep them in the mix with open AI and anthropic.”
Answering 'Is there any crack in this story?' after TSMC raised 2026 revenue growth guidance to 40%+ in USD terms vs the market's ~35-36% @7:10-7:17. He flags 'token maxing' - enterprises 'burning through their budgets quicker than they thought' @8:24 - as the risk that could 'take the shine of some of these capital spending plans' @8:40. In his second hit he notes hyperscaler capex over $700 billion this year with the market 'already expecting that to go to $900 billion or more next year' @24:47.
“I think right now, no, but I think if there is going to be a crack, it remains this kind of theme around the sustainability of enterprise demand.”