Fed
9 hold · 12 neutral · exact words, dated and sourced
+11What the people who move markets are saying about this, in their own words. These are views on the record, not scored bets: when a call here grows a number and a deadline, it moves to the scoreboard. Newest first.
Neutral
why a hike today would be unprecedented, BofA analysis since the early 90s. truncated referent: 'of a Fed moving in that direction'; his point is a hike would SHOCK, not that one comes
“we've never seen the market price less than a 60% probability”
Neutral
the inflation miss he counts
“it's been 62 months, five years since the Fed last hit its inflation target”
Neutral
his dissent math: two dissents if hold, zero if hike. scoped: from a dissent perspective only; he separately says a hike would be a big surprise
“the path of least resistance just from a descent perspective would indicate a hike at this meeting, not a hold”
Neutral
how the decision concentrates in Warsh. reporter framing, deliberate hyperbole
“only one matters today and that is the new chair, Kevin Warsh”
Neutral
Volcker within months; Yellen the only recent exception at 22 months. context framing of surprise risk, not a forecast
“The history of new Fed chairs is that they tend to raise rates very quickly after taking office”
Hold
BlackRock APAC fixed income read on today
“I don't see a need for the Fed to rush into either a hike or a cut”
Neutral
what the Fed should do at this meeting
“Hike. Hike now, hike tomorrow.”
Neutral
his case for tightening
“the Fed has missed its inflation target going on six years”
Neutral
her read as a former Fed governor; she still expects no change. trailing 'Hike.' may be a clarification of whisper 'high'; her baseline is a hold
“I think a good case can be made for a quarter point high. Hike.”
Neutral
dissent forecast for today
“I think you may very well see diss ents after this meeting”
Hold
his prescription for today. STRENGTH corrected leaning->firm: unhedged prescription
“the Fed should stay on hold based on this”
Neutral
the consensus he reports the day before. STANCE corrected: the survey's consensus, not McKee's call
“Eighty-seven of the 88 economists who participate in our Bloomberg survey say the Fed is going to leave rates on hold”
Hold
Wednesday FOMC expectation. her next-move view is a hike; do not read as dovish
“our expectation is not that we're gonna get a hike this week”
Hold
Wednesday FOMC expectation. paired with hawkish worry on tape
“I don't think there's going to be any rate increase at all on Wednesday”
Hold
Wednesday FOMC expectation. he concedes hike probability has risen
“I'm expecting them to do absolutely nothing”
Neutral
directional call on the Fed's next move, timing not this week. team view with an explicit timing hedge
“the most likely next move from the Fed is a hike”
Hold
his Fed call for this week
“I wouldn't expect them to raise rates.”
Neutral
what hike risk does to the macro community. STANCE corrected bear->neutral: color about analyst psychology
“it's like you're squeezing their head in a vice”
Hold
whether the Fed should hike this week. advice-type (should), normative not predictive; he separately warns the Fed may hike anyway
“I wouldn't be hiking here.”
Hold
oil-shock argument against hiking. a maxim deployed as his no-hike argument, not a prediction of what the Fed does
“you don't hike into a supply induced spike”
Hold
what the Fed should do next week. advice-type whose meaning is directional toward hold; he separately wants the balance sheet cut
“doing nothing would be probably the best thing to do”
On the scoreboard
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We write down what public figures predict, in their exact words, and check the result when the deadline arrives. Every line links to its source. How we score · Corrections · The scoreboard
© 2026 Pundit Rumble · independent and unaffiliated · updated every market morning · not investment advice.
We write down what public figures predict, in their exact words, and check the result when the deadline arrives. Every line links to its source. How we score · Corrections · The scoreboard
© 2026 Pundit Rumble · independent and unaffiliated · updated every market morning · not investment advice.