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MC
Mark Cabana
Bank of America Securities (co-head, global rates research)
First call on the ledger
No calls filed yet. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything
else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
why a hike today would be unprecedented, BofA analysis since the early 90s. truncated referent: 'of a Fed moving in that direction'; his point is a hike would SHOCK, not that one comes
“we've never seen the market price less than a 60% probability”
NeutralFed
leaning · 2026-07-29
the inflation miss he counts
“it's been 62 months, five years since the Fed last hit its inflation target”
NeutralFed
leaning · 2026-07-29
his dissent math: two dissents if hold, zero if hike. scoped: from a dissent perspective only; he separately says a hike would be a big surprise
“the path of least resistance just from a descent perspective would indicate a hike at this meeting, not a hold”
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