P U N D I T R U M B L E The Tape Debates Scores

Mike Gapen

Morgan Stanley chief US economist

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NeutralFed leaning · 2026-08-02

Base case: PCE ~3.3 by year-end and Fed on hold all year; failure mode (hikes) stated on tape. EVENT: will, dated.

Our view is that inflation comes down to around 3.3 or so by the end of the year and could diminish further in 2027. And if that's right, then we think the Fed can stay on hold for the rest of the year.

Mike Gapen · Morgan Stanley chief US economist · Prof G Markets ↗

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