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BD
Bill Dudley
former New York Fed president
First call on the ledger
No calls filed yet. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything
else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
Warsh's first presser gave no reaction function despite three dissents
“The silence of wars was really quite deafening and the financial markets basically said thumbs down”
reads Wednesday's curve reaction as markets marking down Fed credibility
“the 30-year yield went up, the 10-year yield went up and two-year yields dropped really was a sign that there was a loss of credibility”
the credibility damage as self-inflicted; Worsch = Warsh garble
“this is a really own goal on Kevin Worsch's part”
the last 72 hours of market action force a September tightening to regain credibility
“increases the pressure on the Fed to act in September. If it's a jump ball in September, you almost need to tighten now”
conditional on the host's hypothetical of the bulk of the FOMC voting against the chair; he prefaces that he doubts it gets there
“I don't think we would get to that. I think at that point, Warsh would throw in the towel and vote with the majority”
why Warsh cannot outsource policy to markets; the rate path becomes indeterminate
“Markets don't price to what the Fed should do. They price to what they think the Fed will do”
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