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DH
Derek Halpenny
MUFG head of global markets research
First call on the ledger
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else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
BOJ September hike the base case after the joint intervention. EVENT: will, dated.
So I think a move in September is likely. That's what we've been expecting even before all of this started to happen.
Base case: Iran deal, crude down, Fed done; next move a cut in 2027. EVENT: will, dated.
No. Again, going back to what we think Trump wants a deal. And therefore we don't expect that to play out and ultimately crude oil prices to come back down. And if that's the case, then I think Warsh has a little bit more leeway. And if we get through this window, which I would say is between, you know, the September meeting till the end of the year, then I think we're we're done. The next move is going to be a cut in twenty twenty seven.
Post-intervention, dollar-yen regaining 160 unlikely. EVENT: wont.
Getting back above the 160 level looks, I think, much more difficult in this environment.
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