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Ron Temple
Lazard chief market strategist
First call on the ledger
No calls filed yet. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything
else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
Asset owners questioning US policy predictability and Fed independence; Warsh may be the first chair in 45 years who must prove independence. EVENT: will, multiyear.
I think actually I think over the next several years you're going to see US dollar depreciation resume so I think we will get a weakening dollar.
Year-end USDJPY ~155, no return to 164; cites FIMA repo firepower behind the intervention. EVENT: will/wont, dated.
I think we could easily end up in the year around 155 on the dollar yen seems like a reasonable target. I don't think we're going to go back to the 164.
S&P ~20x vs EM ~10x, EM under-owned; expects EM currencies to appreciate.
I would say I'm more optimistic on EM equities in general than US equities and by the way, I've been doing this for over 30 years. I haven't said that till the last two years.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -1.9% · 7,737 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
BearishFed
hedged · 2026-08-04
Fed treats Iran inflation as transitory, the famous last words from 2022; may be forced into one hike. EVENT: will, hedged.
I think the Fed might have to raise rates one time, they're going to desperately try not to raise rates.
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