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Gary Cohn
IBM (Vice Chairman)
First call on the ledger
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Where they stand
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The long-end selloff is Warsh's plan working; borrowing keeps getting pricier. EVENT: will.
So Kevin is saying, look, the market is doing my job. They're making the ability to borrow money out on the curve more and more expensive. It's going to continue to get more expensive.
NeutralFed
leaning · 2026-08-03
Warsh uses August incl. Jackson Hole to bake a plan for September. EVENT: will, dated.
he's going to have the month of August before the September meeting to come out and deliver a relatively-baked plan in his mind. He's not going to give you the big plan, but he himself will have a highly-baked plan.
~1T of AI datacenter debt issuance is repricing the curve.
He also knows this enormous amount of need for debt in the AI compute data center world where we're talking about potentially another trillion dollars of issuance going on in the market today. The market is finding a home to clear these bonds. It's also raising longer-term rates. It's putting more risk premium into the curve.
Nasdaq since this was said: ▲ +2.1% · 25,914 → 26,456 · as of 2026-08-05
First time in his career the largest companies talk about merely staying FCF-positive.
You've taken those companies and you've now made them huge asset gathers, huge asset builders. And they're no longer creating free cash flow. In fact, it's the first time I can remember in the history of an earnings call of some of these largest companies when they're talking about we will stay positive on free cash flow.
Nasdaq since this was said: ▲ +2.1% · 25,914 → 26,456 · as of 2026-08-05
IBM vice chairman the morning after the pre-announcement (-$69B day); quantum-rally context; Arvind called the pause 'relatively temporary'; principal defending his own company (disclosed)
“our software is not being disrupted by AI”
Nasdaq since this was said: ▲ +0.7% · 26,269 → 26,456 · as of 2026-08-05
'people are spending exorbitantly more actual dollars on tokens than they would have thought they would be spending at this time' (@1:24); 'people are starting to think about what's been the return on investment in my AI tokens? Are they a good investment?' (@1:56); construction labor crowding-out too
“If your budgets X and you spent point nine X on tokens”
Nasdaq since this was said: ▲ +0.7% · 26,269 → 26,456 · as of 2026-08-05
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