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First call on the ledger
1 still on the clock. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything
else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
On the clock
Written down and dated. Not judged until the deadline arrives.
Said Apr 22, 2026 · resolves Aug 31, 2026
Optimus production will begin at Tesla's Fremont factory in “late July or August” 2026.
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
Debut public earnings call; next model out before year-end trained on SpaceX's full corpus (whisper garbles Grok as crop). EVENT: will, dated year-end.
And then with with 5 which should be out before the end of this year we'll be incorporating the entire corpus of SpaceX data basically all the data that SpaceX has ever produced which is a tremendous amount of the course of a quarter century will be incorporated into crop training.
AGI timeline in Economist interview. event claim WILL (hedged wording, may / my guess); clip replayed inside CNBC segment
“I think AI may exceed the sum of human intelligence in around five years”
post-AI economics. condition stripped if shown alone; pairs with the labradors picture
“The most likely outcome is an age of amazing abundance”
Follow Elon Musk
One short email when Elon puts a new call on the record, and when a verdict lands on one. Plain words, free.