Gil Luria
D.A. Davidson
Photo: editorial use
First call on the ledger
No calls filed yet. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Since they said it
5 directional calls with a price to read (4 bullish, 1 bearish). 1 week later, with the call in 3 of 5; 1 month later, with the call in 3 of 5. Prices as of 2026-09-10. Three fixed windows, the same for every call, always shown together: one week, one month, three months after the first close that followed the tape. What the market did, not a score: a call can have a different horizon, and a view with no number or deadline is never graded here.
Nasdaq from 2026-07-06 to 2026-09-10 · ▲ bullish · ▼ bearish · dot = the close that day
| Date | Market | Call | What was said | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 from 26,585 | Nasdaq | Bullish | Yeah, they have. They have. Part of it is that they actually reported positive cashflow and said that they'll retain positive cashflow, where Google and Amazon are already negative and will stay negative. | -0.5% against the call | -1.4% against the call | not yet |
| 2026-08-03 from 7,737 | S&P 500 | Bullish | Having said that, all three are winners. The only difference right now is valuation. Amazon is the most expensive, Google the second, and Microsoft, the least expensive, all three are winning. | -0.1% against the call | -0.9% against the call | not yet |
| 2026-08-03 from 26,585 | Nasdaq | Bearish (Leaning) | On the Oracle side, it's just execution. They need to get data centers built, they're having a problem with that. They need to raise capital, they're having a problem with that. | -0.5% with the call | -1.4% with the call | not yet |
| 2026-08-02 from 25,914 | Nasdaq | Bullish | That's why I expect there to be a big sigh of relief across the AI trade. Because if Microsoft is setting the tone as opposed to less responsible actors like Mr. Zuckerberg, or to some extent Google, then maybe we're in better hands than we thought we are. | +2.7% with the call | +0.7% with the call | not yet |
| 2026-08-02 from 7,600 | S&P 500 | Bullish | We were expecting a reversion to the mean, and between the Google result and this Microsoft result, we're going to get it. | +2.0% with the call | +0.4% with the call | not yet |
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
BullishThe AI Trade
Microsoft back in AI leadership on retained positive cash flow. EVENT: will (FCF signs).
Yeah, they have. They have. Part of it is that they actually reported positive cashflow and said that they'll retain positive cashflow, where Google and Amazon are already negative and will stay negative.
Nasdaq since this was said: ▲ +0.6% · 25,914 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishThe AI Trade
All three hyperscalers winning in AI; Microsoft the value pick.
Having said that, all three are winners. The only difference right now is valuation. Amazon is the most expensive, Google the second, and Microsoft, the least expensive, all three are winning.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -0.1% · 7,600 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
BearishThe AI Trade
Oracle on the bubble: delayed equity raise, high CDS, falling stock.
On the Oracle side, it's just execution. They need to get data centers built, they're having a problem with that. They need to raise capital, they're having a problem with that.
Nasdaq since this was said: ▲ +0.6% · 25,914 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishThe AI Trade
MSFT the adult in the room after Azure 43 percent; relief across the AI trade.
That's why I expect there to be a big sigh of relief across the AI trade. Because if Microsoft is setting the tone as opposed to less responsible actors like Mr. Zuckerberg, or to some extent Google, then maybe we're in better hands than we thought we are.
Nasdaq since this was said: ▲ +2.8% · 25,374 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishThe AI Trade
Pair call: MSFT ~18x and GOOGL ~30x revert toward parity. EVENT: will.
We were expecting a reversion to the mean, and between the Google result and this Microsoft result, we're going to get it.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +1.4% · 7,490 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishThe AI Trade
AI bull who invokes Enron on ~2T of off-balance-sheet SPV debt: the bad ones put the system at risk.
You're going to hear me say that I believe that the investment in AI infrastructure is a wise one, that we're going to get good returns. We're already starting to do that, but I don't like circular financing. I don't like that we're building on leverage.
Nasdaq since this was said: ▲ +2.8% · 25,374 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
BearishSpaceX
SpaceX is ground zero, trading near 100x last year's revenue
Gil Luria · D.A. Davidson · Prof G MarketsFollow Gil Luria
One short email when Gil puts a new call on the record, and when a verdict lands on one. Plain words, free.
Before you trust the call, check the record.
We write down what public figures predict, in their exact words, and check the result when the deadline arrives. Every line links to its source. How we score · Corrections · The scoreboard · The data
© 2026 Pundit Rumble · independent and unaffiliated · updated every market morning · not investment advice.
We write down what public figures predict, in their exact words, and check the result when the deadline arrives. Every line links to its source. How we score · Corrections · The scoreboard · The data
© 2026 Pundit Rumble · independent and unaffiliated · updated every market morning · not investment advice.