Bitcoin & Crypto

…I mean, the Republicans right now, I think, you know, there's a very little chance the Republicans are gonna retain their majority in both houses. And I don't even care how many socialists are elected in New York. This is not gonna happen. I think midterm elections, it's all about turnout. Right now, the enthusiasm factor about Trump is so low right now. I just think that the more Democrats are going to turn out than the Republicans. This is why, you know, so from that point of view, there is no chance that any kind of meaningful crypto or Bitcoin legislation is going to be passed. I would say in the next two and a half years. And you can say, wow, is that bullish or bearish? Whatever it is, I definitely don't. I see very little upside for Bitcoin. The only thing that could happen is that, you know, again, if the AI bubble bursts, the Fed start cutting interest rates, maybe crypto becomes more interesting then. But even then it's not clear to me because if AI basically burst, a lot of retail investors are gonna be sitting on a lot of losses. And they're gonna be basically equating everything. Probably Bitcoin as well. So because at the end of the day, Bitcoins are sitting mainly with retail investors. So I would say that, you know, I mean, I'm not that excited about Bitcoin. I would say, you know, like if you're looking for an oversold asset, I think gold is a bit more interesting.…From: this video · 6 claims mined from it

…but this news highlights that the barriers to entry are relatively low in the space when it comes to tokenization, when it comes to stablecoins. And that could weigh on margins. So that's what the market was pricing in the other day when Circle fell 17% on that news. Now, launching a product and achieving network effects and scale are two different things. And so the history of these types of consortiums is that there's nobody who's really incentiv ized to drive business activity and sales. And so you can hold those two thoughts in your head at the same time, that the consortium will struggle, but that it's not great for Circle. And that's where we are. So we added a little bit later in the week after the stock had already kind of cratered. So I think the risk reward at this level for Circle is pretty good. This news doesn't change their earnings for this quarter or for this year. It may impact kind of the terminal value that people put on the business. Let me ask you this question. Then as a continuation, then we'll circle back specifically to open USD. I think what does meaningfully impact the bottom line of a stablecoin would be interest rates coming down.…From: this video · 2 claims mined from it

…, you know, I think that when this one ends and we'll talk about that in a minute You know when this one ends, I feel like we're going to 150 180 200 something, you know on the next one I got I got your forecast in 2024 and 2025 in bull markets when the price was on its way up now The price has been on its way down. What is your updated forecast now for both Bitcoin and gold? Let's do Bitcoin Yeah, sure in that order which one to do first Let's do Bitcoin first and then go first So I feel like we're carving a bottom here in Bitcoin a lot of the good Analysts that I follow and the economic or the models that I follow is one in particular. It's very useful called the power law model Suggests that you know, we're close to the bottom if not at the bottom So, you know whether we end here at 59 or 58 or we look down to 54 I don't think we're gonna see a number that starts with 40 I mean, I feel like the bottom will be here we may for all I know we've hit it or you know We had 58 last week But maybe we go to 54. I don't know we 're you know from a time point of view It feels to me like this kind of wraps up in the next three or four months I mean, we're about nine months into this most of these Bitcoin bear markets seem to last about 12 months So, you know if you take three months from now, I mean, what did that be September? Maybe you know, it's over We start going up again, but it could be shorter. I don't know Gold kind of the same story. I mean, I don't know could we you know, we're in the low fours I mean, could we go down to 3800 3900?…From: this video · 4 claims mined from it

…Templeton later this hour. So a little bit of a tease there. But let's talk a little bit about the disconnect that seems to be forming about what we're seeing on the network and the tokens actual price in the market because I mean you describe the activity on the network. It seems like of course there's a lot of momentum there. And then you take a look at the tokens price. You wouldn't necessarily know it . So I mean what basically sort of accounts for that disconnect that has formed. Well I think we're in the early stages of tokenization of most of financial assets. It's not just myself and sharp link. Speaking our book you've heard Larry Fink and Davos explain that all 14 trillion dollars of their fiduciary assets at some point will be tokenized and Ethereum is the toll road to tokenization. If you take a step back we are probably in the bottom of the first inning of tokenization. There's about 32 billion in real world assets tokenized out of a total market of about 700 trillion. And once you start seeing the likes of New York Stock Exchange NASDAQ DTCC talk about tokenizing assets and allowing wallet movements and instant settlement. It's very hard in the technology space to build a more efficient system and ultimately go back to the rails we have today which are delayed settlement takes place in one to three days depending on your region. And that creates a lot of…From: this video · 2 claims mined from it

…in the United States, second of all, is that the United States has frozen Venezuela's gold. They froze in Russia's gold. They've gone after China's gold. Only if they have possession of it. And again, but you can't do that with an asset that cannot be censored. What do you mean? Look at all the Bitcoin we've seized. How do you think we have a Bitcoin strategic reserve? It's all the seized Bitcoin. There was just some rumors, I don't know, that we seized Iran's Bitcoin or whatever they had. It's a lot harder to seize gold because if you have your own gold in a vault, unless you're going to send the military on the ground to get it, gold is far more secure. Let me ask you this. Over the next decade, do you think that Bitcoin or gold is going to outperform each other? If you had to pick between gold and Bitcoin, which one do you think? I don't even know if Bitcoin is going to be around in another decade. You want to make a bet on it? Bet what? If Bitcoin is going to be around in a decade? Bet a bar of gold. Everybody else wants to bet me. You know, I got that. That's an easy bet. If you think it's going to go away, let 's make a little bet. Well, I can't. It's not going to go to zero, maybe. Oh, OK. So Bitcoin is not going to zero . Let's see. We're making progress. It will underperform gold. I'll make you that. A huge part of Bitcoin's recent run up has a lot to do with the administration being incredibly open armed to it. And President Trump had said he wanted to be the crypto president. He's very much involved in it. He hawks his own coin. Melania has the first lady hawks a coin . His kids are involved in Bitcoin companies, et cetera. At what point does Bitcoin become exactly the very system that it was…From: this video · 3 claims mined from it

…they can trade at 0.3, 0.4 times NAV for a long time if minorities are observing entrenched management control, related party transactions, tax considerations to unwinding, so it's through that lens that we've been underway to those types of names. Yes, I know we're approaching time here . I mean, just broadly, what excites you right now about the space and where the market is likely headed? I mean, you talked about where you're obviously positioned, but I guess in a unicorn scenario, where would you like to be positioned a year from now? I still think Bitcoin is going to be materially higher in one year. And if that's the case, we may lag some of our leveraged peers on the way up, but we'll do just fine. But I think a lot of the market is going to wait for some fundamental catalysts to get more excited. And people are OK missing the first 10% or 20%. If there's a piece of news that's really fundamentally positive, whether that's clarity. The White House has been teasing some progress on Bitcoin strategic reserve now since…From: this video · 2 claims mined from it

…you can pick any low point and you can say, "Okay, this asset sucks." But you know, Tom Lee said to me something last week on a podcast that I did that people should really listen to. If you're out of the market, the crypto market, the Bitcoin market, 10 of the best days, well, you got no return. So you have to stay in and you have to be fully invested and you have to ignore the noise. If you believe that this is an operating layer for the future of money, which I do, and if you believe that this is a digital store value because it checks off all the technical components that we've all looked at throughout history to make something a store value, which I do, then you got to sit in Bitcoin and you got to hold it. And if it trades to half of the market capitalization of gold, it'll be one of the best investments of your lifetime. I'm very long Bitcoin. As you know, I'm with you on it being a super long-term asset. The cycles will come and go, but Bitcoin will stick around for a long time. Is there any of the bear cases that you've read about, heard about that you think, okay, this is actually making a lot of sense here? So, I mean, I think the question is what would make me negative on it, right? Because I'm trying to look at the bear case. Yeah. So, you…From: this video · 7 claims mined from it

…your portfolio. And, you know, momentum drives people crazy. They get FOMO from the momentum. And I would just tell you to relax on that. Just bet the long-term trend and bet the wheel. Like, we have a number of different bets on the wheel so that you don't get hurt no matter what happens. So if we had to make a brand new portfolio today, you and I, where are you allocating that capital? Let's say we got a million bucks to put in different corners of this pie. What do you like most right now? Is this AI specific or this general market? I mean, in the market, I assume you want some Bitcoin in there . Well, okay. So, look, I would have probably 30 percent in Bitcoin. I would probably have a basket of some of these AI companies that I could own. You know, I'm an owner of Astera Labs, which is publicly traded. It's hard to get into these companies that are not publicly traded. I am a SpaceX investor. People think it 's overvalued. I think that that's short-term nonsense . I wouldn't read the noise on SpaceX. I own it. I would always own a slug of the S&P. If you notice, the Mag7 has run, but the other 493 are doing well this year. And I would own some real estate in my portfolio and some gold. And I would sit tight and I would bet…From: this video · 7 claims mined from it

…crypto story, because as a, quote, mousetrap, blockchain is still the best way to still transmit and store value and record transactions without trust. And that's why I think Wall Street is still going to build and is rapidly building on blockchains. It's just not happening to our everyday lives just yet. And for the same reason why I think a lot of the AI engineers are tinkering with using blockchain to manage future agents to protect us. Because as AI becomes quite wealthy, humans might be taken out of that economic loop. So I think that's why, to me, Bitcoin will make a full recovery. I believe you're gonna see Bitcoin over 100,000 by the end of the year. And Ethereum back to over 5,000. So I think investors patience is clearly tested. Because we';ve, I think Bitcoin's been down three quarters in a row. But I think it's never been down four quarters in a row. So this would be a test that if they don't bounce from June to September, then you're right, maybe something's broken. >> Is there a price point at which you would say, yes, it is broken. The story is broken and it won't work. And you're more like, do you ever think about that? >> For Bitcoin, the way to look at it is its production cost. Because there is a cost of mining and…From: this video · 8 claims mined from it

…War but it's rebounding nicely and on the next page an even stronger measure of true wealth, S&P relative to gold again fell apart during the 70s was threatening to do so here again. It did break below a range which made us a little uncomfortable although crude oil was not or S&P to crude oil was not valid ating it nonetheless we're happy to see it's on its way up again and we think it has far to go in this technology revolution . Here's Bitcoin to gold, gold is going down, Bitcoin had been going down, it seems to be in a bottoming process. We believe that it has bottomed on this basis and will resume the very volatile but broad uptrend that you see on this chart and then just two more charts. Are the credit markets telling us, warning us about anything? No. All is quiet. Even with the private credit outflows I saw the Blue Owl again had to gate its…From: this video · 4 claims mined from it

…- I don't, again, I don't really care what others do. - I know, but we're specifically talking about some of the cultural sort of norms that are emerging or established in Bitcoin. - Yeah, I guess I look at what I determine risk, right? - Let me rephrase it. Sorry to interrupt you. Do you think capital allocation to the equity markets is a legitimate form of investment in the era of Bitcoin? - It can be in certain times, but I believe that the long-term IRR of Bitcoin is going to be about 40%. - Long-term? - Yeah, because I believe it's going to - - I think it's gonna accelerate. - I think it's every single thing is gonna be repriced in Bitcoin. Everything over time. It is a protocol repricing the world, and most people are still pricing it from the other system. And so, and it doesn't matter if all prices fall and Bitcoin falls less, or if all prices rise and Bitcoin rises more, I think it's repricing everything over time. - I'm so torn between whether Bitcoin rises in parallel or Bitcoin sucks capital away from, I'm torn about that. - Yeah, but it almost doesn't matter. - It doesn't matter. - Because it makes no difference. You have a protocol decentralized secure bounded by energy that isn't changing. If it doesn't change,…From: this video · 3 claims mined from it

…Don't worry about capital allocation. Don't worry about any other productive means of capital allocation. I find that rather defeatist actually. - So- - Have you noticed- - I don't, again, I don't really care what others do. - I know, but we're specifically talking about some of the cultural sort of norms that are emerging or established in Bitcoin. - Yeah, I guess I look at what I determine risk, right? - Let me rephrase it. Sorry to interrupt you. Do you think capital allocation to the equity markets is a legitimate form of investment in the era of Bitcoin? - It can be in certain times, but I believe that the long-term IRR of Bitcoin is going to be about 40%. - Long-term? - Yeah, because I believe it's going to - - I think it's gonna accelerate. - I think it's every single thing is gonna be repriced in Bitcoin. Everything over time. It is a protocol repricing the world, and most people are still pricing it from the other system. And so, and it doesn't matter if all prices fall and Bitcoin falls less, or if all prices rise and Bitcoin rises more, I think it's repricing everything over time. - I'm so torn between whether Bitcoin rises in parallel or Bitcoin sucks capital away from, I'm torn about that. - Yeah, but it almost doesn't matter.…From: this video · 3 claims mined from it

…declined over the past year as well. Bit mine Nakamoto American Bitcoin and Sharpling all way down from their highs last year. Now our next guest says that not all debts will survive to see 2027. Joseph Shalom. He is the CEO of Sharpling. He 's a former managing director at Black Rock and he joins us now. So let's start with that prediction that not all debts will survive. What gives you the confidence to say that Sharpling will. So we've been around as a digital asset treasury since last July. We were able to raise several billion dollars of capital invested in ether and from day one make that productive. I think what you're going to end up seeing is a handful of Ethereum digital asset treasuries who are professionally managed who've raised significant enough capital to get actual scale and most importantly making ether productive. We give a lot of credit to Michael Saylor for launching strategy. But Bitcoin is not a natively productive asset. Ether if you stake it in the Ethereum ecosystem can yield nearly 3 percent. And we've been making our ether productive for our investors from day one. Still we've seen ether fall what just around 60 percent since last from last year's highs. What is it going to take for ether in your view to recover price…From: this video · 2 claims mined from it